ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Largest weekly inflows into Robotics since inception

Transcription

1 James Butterfill Head of Research & Investment Strategy 23 October 217 ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Largest weekly inflows into Robotics since inception Minor gold outflows of US$12.6mn, following inflows over the previous 5 weeks, totalling US$312mn. Recent rising oil prices have led to outflows in 12 of the last 13 weeks, totalling US$381mn. Robotics inflows last week totalled US$33mn, the largest weekly inflow since inception. Weekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals Agriculture Livestock Equities Bonds FX Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Global Equity 36.1 JPY Industrial metals Global Bond Precious metals Cocoa -3. Gold Crude oil Commodity FX Diversified Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performers Lean Hogs Carbon Cocoa Gasoline Australia Equity Cotton Sugar Wheat Zinc Tin -1% -5% % 5% So urce: ETF Securities No te: s ee next page (*) % -2.8% -3.1 % -4.% -5.% 4.3% 3.% 2.4% 2.4% 1.4% Gold saw minor outflows of US$12.6mn, following gold inflows over the previous 5 weeks totalling US$312mn. The previous weeks of inflows are on a par to inflows seen in February this year. The gold market has been wrestling with the fact that corporate confidence data (PMIs) has highlighted that developed world growth is at a cycle high, which typically dampens sentiment for gold. Conversely, geopolitical risks, including Catalonia and North Korea keep escalating. The threat of a December interest rate hike in the US and possible tighter monetary policy from the ECB and UK is also likely to put pressure on gold prices in the coming months, particularly as we continue to see better than expected corporate earnings. This does not mean that there is a significant downside risk to gold though, as investors are very aware of the bubble in bonds, alongside higher valuations in equities and therefore see gold as an insurance policy against a correction and geopolitical crises. Supporting this is data highlighting an outflow of US$2.6mn year-to-date from short gold ETFs. Recent rising oil prices have led to outflows in 12 of the past 13 weeks, totalling US$381mn, with US$13mn withdrawn last week. The outflows suggest investors do not feel that the recent rise in oil prices is sustainable. News of falling inventories in the US, fears for production in Kurdistan, production constraints caused by recent hurricanes and the potential for an OPEC production freeze extension have pushed up prices to the upper levels of our expected range of US$6/bbl. We believe oil prices have reached a high due to the downwards price pressures, being a continued lack in production freeze compliance from OPEC, a significant pick up in oil production and exports from the US and the Iraq-Kurdistan conflict having little impact on oil production in the region. Industrial metals saw inflows last week totalling US$13mn despite recent strong price performance. Seasonally, industrial precious metals tend to fall in October and November, we see any price weakness in the coming months as an opportunity to take advantage of the continued improving fundamentals of supply-side destruction, multi-year supply deficits and increasing autos demand. We continue to see interest in Robotics with inflows last week totalling US$33mn, the largest weekly inflow since inception (October 214). Inflows year-to-date now total US$467mn. ETF Securities Commodity ETP Flow Trends Note: All flow and data in this report are based on ETF Securities ETP numbers to 2 October 217 and are denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

2 2 ETF Securities ETP FLOWS (in US$m) ASSETS TOTAL , , ,33 Diversified ,55 PERFORMANCE (US$) Precious Metals ,85 Basket % -.8% 8.2% -2.1% Gold , % -1.1% 1.2%.8% Silver , %.6% 4.7% -3.% Platinum % -1.7%.9% -1.3% Palladium % 6.5% 43.8% 56.9% Energy ,785 Basket %.7% -12.2% -8.1% Crude oil , % 2.6% -3.3% -.1% Natural Gas % -2.6% -3.1% -25.7% Heating Oil % -.1%.% 6.% Gasoline % 1.6% -6.9% 1.2% Carbon % 12.% 26.8% 36.3% Industrial Metals Basket % 4.9% 21.4% 35.2% Aluminium % -1.3% 22.7% 27.5% Copper % 7.5% 23.2% 47.% Nickel % 12.4% 14.6% 14.7% Zinc % 3.% 19.8% 35.6% Tin % -4.7% -6.6% -.7% Lead % -1.2% 2.3% 2.6% Agriculture Basket % -2.6% -11.% -15.2% Wheat % -5.2% -1.2% -15.4% Corn % -2.6% -11.4% -13.8% Soybeans % -.6% -5.5% -5.5% Cotton % -2.3% -5.1% -3.9% Coffee % -6.8% -15.4% -27.5% Sugar % -4.4% -31.9% -41.6% Soybean Oil % -.3% -4.7% -7.5% Cocoa % 7.8% -3.% -23.9% Livestock Basket % 3.9% 6.2% 27.9% Lean Hogs % 14.5% 2.2% 39.7% Live Cattle % -.7% 8.4% 22.1% Equities ,828 Global ,34.1% 2.% 19.5% 22.2% US % 2.5% 16.3% 22.1% Europe % 2.2% 9.1% 15.% Asia %.8% 2.1% 14.8% Australia % 4.% 8.% 13.% Bonds Global % -.1% 4.7%.3% Europe %.5%.6% -1.1% Emerging Markets % -1.4% 12.3% 7.5% FX G USD % 1.4% -8.5% -5.3% CAD % -1.2% 6.6% 6.5% EUR %.% 7.3% 6.% GBP % -1.7% -.6% 3.2% CHF %.4% -5.1% -4.4% NOK % -.7% -1.1% -2.7% SEK % -1.1% 1.9% 3.% JPY %.1% -.7% -11.% CNY %.3% -.1% 1.7% INR %.2% -1.4% -.1% AUD % -.2% 4.1% 3.6% NZD % -3.3% -5.% -4.5% Commodity FX (*) All data as at 2 Oct 17, based on ETF Securities global commodity ETP flows and assets. In FX due to being pair trades there is double counting. Price performance is based on NAV data for commodities, indices for Bonds & Equities, Trade weighted indices for FX, Bloomberg

3 3 ETF Securities Net Cumulative Flows by Asset Classes over the past year Com modities 1, Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Bonds Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Equities 1, Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct Currencies -8 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 All Commodity ETPs Flows Analysis DIVERSIFIED FLOWS Diversified ,55 All Commodities Ex-Energy Ex-Ags and Liv Past Month Flows in Diversified ETPs DIVERSIFIED -$43.4 All Commodities -$42.1 Ex-Energy Ex-Agriculture and Livestock -$1.3 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Net Cumulative Flows into Diversified Commodities % -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2 All Commodities

4 4 ETF Securities Energy ETPs Flows Analysis ENERGY FLOWS Energy ,785 Energy Basket Crude oil ,541 Natural Gas Heating Oil Gasoline Carbon Past Month Flows Trends in Energy ETPs ENERGY Energy Basket Crude oil Natural Gas Heating Oil Gasoline Carbon Net Cumulative Flows into Energy 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, % -5% % 5% 1% 9 8 Gasoline Precious Metals ETPs Flows Analysis PRECIOUS METALS FLOWS Precious Metals ,85 PM Basket Gold ,597 Silver ,452 Platinum Palladium Past Month Flows in Precious Metals ETPs PRECIOUS METALS PM Basket Gold -$.6 -$.8 $338.8 $17. $229.3 Silver $78.5 $.3 Platinum -$.1 $23.2 Palladium -$9.2 Net Cumulative Flows into Precious Metals 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, % -5% % 5% 1% 35 3 Silver

5 5 ETF Securities Industrial Metals ETPs Flows Analysis INDUSTRIAL META FLOWS Industrial Metals IM Basket Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc Tin Lead Past Month Flows in Industrial Metals ETPs INDUSTRIAL METALS -$1.5 $.6 IM Basket $23. Aluminium -$.3 -$.4 Copper -$26.4 $.7 Nickel $3.2 Zinc -$.1 Tin -$1.6 -$.1 $. $.1 $.2 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Net Cumulative Flows into Industrial Metals % -5% % 5% 1% 14 Copper Agriculture ETPs Flows Analysis AGRICULTURE FLOWS Agriculture Agri Basket Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton Coffee Sugar Soybean Oil Cocoa ,5 1,3 1, Net Cumulative Flows into Agriculture Past Month Flows in Agricultural ETPs AGRICULTURE -$2.2 $1.1 Agri Basket -$2.1 $. Wheat -$.5 -$1.6 Corn $. Soybeans -$.6 Cotton -$.1 $. Coffee Sugar -$.6 -$.4 $23.1 $4.9 Soybean Oil -$.3 -$.5 Cocoa -$13.2 $. -1% -5% % 5% 1% 7 6 Coffee

6 6 ETF Securities Livestock ETPs Flows Analysis LIVESTOCK FLOWS Livestock Livestock Basket Lean Hogs Live Cattle Past Month Flows in Livestock ETPs LIVESTOCK -$.2 $. Livestock Basket $.1 Lean Hogs -$.2 -$.1 Live Cattle -$.1 Net Cumulative Flows into Livestock % -5% % 5% 1% Live Cattle Equity ETPs Flows Analysis EQUITIES FLOWS Region ,828 Global ,34 US Europe Asia Australia Themes ,416 Small Cap MLP Gold Miners Robo Cyber Past Month Flows in Equity ETPs EQUITIES Global US $136.4 $127.3 $5.7 $5.7 Europe Asia $2.6 $5.8 Australia $1.5-1% -5% % 5% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Equities 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Robo

7 7 ETF Securities Bond ETPs Flows Analysis BONDS FLOWS Bonds Global Europe Emerging Markets Government Corporate Past Month Flows in Bond ETPs BONDS $1.4 Global $8.2 Europe Emerging Markets $2.2 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Bonds Global Currency ETPs Flows Analysis CURRENCIES FLOWS FX G USD CAD EUR GBP CHF NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX n.b. Due to each currency being a pair, there is double counting in the flow data Net Cumulative Flows into Currencies G1 USD CAD EUR GBP CHF NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX Past Month Flows in Currency ETPs % -5% % 5% 1% GBP.

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