THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT: 17/06/16

Transcription

1 THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT: 17/06/16

2 THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT: 17/06/16 CONTENTS: FX Majors Traded Pairs Summary P.1 FX Majors Currency Strength P.2 FX Major Charts P.3 FX Emerging Markets P.4 FX Emerging Market Chart of the week P.5 FX EM Driver Charts: GSCI, USD Index, MSCI Index P.6 FX Big Impact News P.7 Index Watch: UK FTSE100 & US S&P500 P.8 Index Watch: Far East: Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng P.9 Index Watch: US Market Sentiment Dashboard P.10 US And UK Equities Short Lists P.11 Commodities To Watch P.12 WTI Brent Spread Strategy P.13 COT & Seasonality Hot List P.14

3 FX Major Traded Pairs Summary: US Dollar Index 4hr Chart: Comment: Judgement day is nearly upon us - BREXIT! Take the Brexit vote out of the equation and it is a pretty dull news week ahead definitely one of the quieter weeks on the calendar with nothing major to report. Thursday is the voting day with the results announced on the Friday for the EU referendum. Expect some considerable trading volatility before, during and after! USD Index and Dollar strength again fell back from any gains in strength it had recently made. It has a neutral range bound feel to it. (See chart top right). JPY continues to gain strength. GBP remains the weakest currency of the majors.

4 FX Majors Currency Strength: How to use: Data is based off weekly and daily currency strength quantitative analysis to present a feel for the longer term sentiment, strength and weakness levels in the major currencies. Weak Neutral Strong GBP, EUR, CHF, NZD, JPY, AUD,USD, CAD, Currency Strength Analysis: GBP pausing from recent strength gains. USD bullish momentum weakening. JPY strong. EUR neutral / weak. Most other majors neutral.

5 FX Majors Charts: Charts of interest this week the longer term view: Weekly EURJPY: EURJPY: A chart with some big downside momentum currently. Price touched significant long term support earlier this week on the Fibonacci line. With Brexit looming this week and JPY strength this could be a very interesting chart to watch!

6 FX Emerging Markets: Comment: The 3 standout directional EM currencies at the moment look to be SGD (bearish) and MXN, MYR (bullish). The rest are a mixed bag influenced by a weaker US Dollar which should make them stronger but weakness in commodities and local EM equity markets over the last week put hold on any directional gains.

7 FX Emerging Markets Chart of the week: SGD Comment: SGD bearish longer term downtrend in play at the moment. Momentum may be slowing down. Support at As of writing trading at More significant Fibonacci levels at in the longer term if the bears get hold.

8 FX EM Driver Charts: GSCI, USD Index, MSCI Index:

9 FX Big Impact News: About Economic News: Each week major economic news comes out from around the globe that can have a serious impact on the currency markets. The most important news (in our opinion) is listed here..

10 Index Watch: UK FTSE 100 & US S&P500: S&P500 Again, stuck at highs around Momentum and sentiment turning more bearish? UK FTSE Say no more than Brexit weighing heavily on direction over the next few weeks but underlying longer term direction is bearish.

11 Index Watch: Far East Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng Nikkei 225 couldn t surpass the level and has since fallen back. Kagi support around Hang Seng Kagi Longer term trend still down: price reversed recent gains and looking to flip more bearish.

12 Index Watch: US Market Sentiment Dashboard: General Sentiment: Weak Bearish VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): The fear gauge. Levels picked up nearly 6% indicating a possible swing to bearishness for the S&P 500 Index? (>30 = investor fear/uncertainty & <20 = less stressful markets)

13 US & UK Short Lists: United Therapeutics Corp: (Weekly chart) Helen of Troy: (Weekly chart) Strong sectors: Passenger Transportation, Household Goods, Automobile & Auto Parts, Food & Drug Retailing, Beverages, Multiline Utilities. Weak Sectors: Holding Companies, Coal, Bio Technology, Renewables, Coal,

14 Commodities To Watch: The below trend direction analysis is based on an assessment of the daily technicals. Use more detailed technical analysis e.g. indicators, support and resistance, sentiment: COT, Open Interest etc. for possible trade entry, exits and stops. Bullish Opportunities: Not behaving as it should: Bearish Opportunities: Sugar No11. looking fundamentally and technically strong. World Sugar stocks near historic lows. WTI: fundamentally bearish. Should be lower - politics see s it bullish. Watch for swings in prices. Price $48- $50 resistance zone. Look for breaks above or below in the short term. Live Cattle: fundamentally and technically weak. Soybean Oil: fundamentally and technically weak. Comment: Gold: (weekly chart) Watch out for Brexit this week, especially if you re trading Gold. An exit could possibly see Gold rise whilst a remain, could see Gold fall. Expect volatility! Momentum and Sentiment is very bullish in the Softs complex: Cotton, Sugar all putting in highs. Cotton surged on the news China growing conditions have turned bad. In grains, Wheat looks over sold. Corn, Soybeans have also put in a strong bullish performance of late both on better weather and macro market sentiment.

15 Crude WTI Brent Spread: The Crude WTI Brent spread trade plays the differential between the two similar crudes. The strategy looks for changes in the spread either for breakouts or reversals. Current level: (Last week -1.15)

16 COT And Seasonality Hot list:

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