Global Markets Update QNB Economics 12 March 2017

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1 Global Markets Update QNB Economics 12 March 2017

2 Executive Summary Key Takeaways US yields rose on a highly likely Fed rate hike this week; Eurozone yields rose after the ECB president lowered expectations for further monetary stimulus The Egyptian pound fell on rising demand for US dollars as households stock up ahead of Ramadan Equity markets in oil producing countries fell on lower prices Oil prices fell sharply on concerns about persistently rising US crude oil inventories This week will be dominated by the expected Fed rate hike on Wednesday Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 2

3 US yields rose on a highly likely Fed rate hike this week; Eurozone yields rose after the ECB president lowered expectations for further monetary stimulus Global Benchmark Yields (%, local currencies) Maturity 03-Mar 10-Mar Change in Yield (bps) Advanced Economies Week MTD* YTD* US 10 yrs Germany 10 yrs France 10 yrs Italy 10 yrs Japan 10 yrs UK 10 yrs Emerging Markets Bahrain** 6 yrs Brazil 10 yrs China 10 yrs Egypt 10 yrs N/A N/A India 10 yrs Indonesia 10 yrs Nigeria 9 yrs Qatar** 9 yrs Russia 10 yrs Saudi Arabia** 10 yrs South Africa 10 yrs Turkey 10 yrs Abu Dhabi** 9 yrs Dubai** 4 yrs The probability of a Fed rate hike this week rose to 100% after nonfarm payroll data increased by 235k in February Although the ECB kept rates and quantitative easing unchanged, Mario Draghi s statement dampened the outlook for monetary stimulus Legend > 2 standard deviation fall in yields > 1 standard deviation fall in yields < 1 standarad deviation change in yields > 1 standard deviation rise in yields > 2 standard deviation rise in yields Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; *Month to Date and Year to Date; **USD denominated 3

4 The Egyptian pound fell on rising demand for US dollars as households stock up ahead of Ramadan Global Exchange Rates vs USD 03-Mar 10-Mar Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US Dollar Index Euro Area* Japan UK* Emerging Markets Brazil China Egypt Indonesia 13,383 13, India Kuwait Nigeria Russia Turkey South Africa UAE Bahrain Oman PEGGED Qatar Saudi Arabia Other currencies were broadly stable over the week Legend > 2 standard deviation strengthening of currency > 1 standard deviation strengthening of currency < 1 standarad deviation change in currency > 1 standard deviation weakening of currency > 2 standard deviation weakening of currency Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Exchange rate quoted as amount of USD per currency unit in line with market convention, other exchange rates are amount of currency per USD 4

5 Equity markets in oil producing countries fell on lower prices Global Equity Indices 03-Mar 10-Mar Change (%) Advanced Economies Week MTD YTD US (S&P 500) 2,383 2, Europe (STOXX 50) 3,403 3, Japan (Nikkei 225) 19,469 19, UK (FTSE 100) 7,374 7, Emerging Markets Bahrain (BB) 1,342 1, Brazil (IBOVESPA) 65,855 64, China (Shanghai ) 3,218 3, Egypt (EGX 30) 12,310 12, India (CNX NIFTY) 8,946 8, Indonesia (Jakarta) 5,391 5, KSA (Tadawul) 7,017 6, Kuwait (KSE) 6,767 6, Nigeria (All Share) 25,012 25, Oman (Muscat 30) 5,815 5, Qatar (Doha 20) 10,721 10, Russia (MICEX) 2,057 1, S.Africa (J'burg 40) 44,837 44, Turkey (Istanbul 100) 89,722 89, UAE (Abu Dhabi) 4,596 4, UAE (Dubai) 3,584 3, Egypt s stock market was boosted by the weakening pound Legend > 2 standard deviation rise in equity index > 1 standard deviation rise in equity index < 1 standarad deviation change in equity index > 1 standard deviation fall in equity index > 2 standard deviation fall in equity index Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics 5

6 Oil prices fell sharply on concerns about persistently rising US crude oil inventories Commodity Prices* 03-Mar 10-Mar Change (%) Energy Week MTD YTD Brent WTI Precious Metals Gold 1,235 1, Silver Industrial Copper 5,917 5, Steel Aluminum 1,892 1, Wheat Corn Cocoa 1,989 1, US crude oil inventories rose by 8.2m barrels versus an expected increase of 1.3m Legend > 2 standard deviation rise in price > 1 standard deviation rise in price < 1 standarad deviation change in price > 1 standard deviation fall in price > 2 standard deviation fall in price Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * Spot prices or nearest expiring future 6

7 This week will be dominated by the expected Fed rate hike on Wednesday Last Week s Data Review* Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Mar 07 Eurozone GDP SA YoY 4Q F 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% Mar 09 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Mar % 0.0% 0.0% Mar 10 US Unemployment Rate Feb 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% Mar 10 US Change in nonfarm payrolls Feb 190k 235k 238k Forthcoming Economic Events* Date Country Event Period Consensus Actual Previous Mar 15 US CPI YoY Feb 2.7% 2.5% Mar 15 US Fed Rate Decision Mar % 0.75% Mar 16 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Mar % 0.25% Mar 16 Eurozone CPI YoY Feb F 2.0% 2.0% Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics * A stands for advance, P for preliminary and F for final 7

8 Two-Year Performance of Major Asset Classes Sovereign 10-Year Bond Yields Equities 3 2 US Germany Advanced Economies* (left axis) Emerging Markets** (right axis) /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ Exchange Rates Commodities Dollar Index (left axis) EUR:USD (right axis) Oil (left axis) Food*** (right axis) /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ /15 04/15 07/15 10/15 01/16 04/16 07/16 10/ Sources: Bloomberg and QNB Economics; * MSCI World Index; ** MSCI Emerging Markets Index;; ***S&P GSCI Agricultural Index, which includes wheat corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa and cotton 8

9 Disclaimer and Copyright Notice All the information in this report has been carefully collated and verified. However, QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses arising from its use. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise cited, it is that of the authors which does not coincide with that of any other party, and such opinions may not be attributed to any other party. The report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB Group. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission. QNB Economics Team Ziad Daoud Head of Economics Rory Fyfe Senior Economist Ali Jaffery Economist Nancy Fahim Economist Abdulrahman Al-Jehani Analyst

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