Daily Support & Resistance

Transcription

1 Daily Support & Resistance 30 th July 2010 USDJPY Price continued to decline as expected and stalled at the support. The pullback has been firm but has not managed to penetrate both 4-hour & hourly Clouds. We ll have to see how price reacts at the Clouds on Monday. FX-forecaster Trader Package now available at pm Includes support & resistance and 6 guiding indicators: (For MT4 users) DISCLAIMER: Daily Forecaster support & resistance is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The support & resistance levels and indicators do not represent automatic trading signals and should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely provides this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.

2 I suspect the 4-hour Cloud is going to cap. It s not impossible for a small sideways consolidation but overall I feel a test of the weekly descending triangle low is required first. Daily FX-f RSI should maintain the bullish divergence which could threaten a reversal higher next week.

3 EURUSD Just one small pattern a double bottom at the support that offered a possible 15 pips. Price failed to break cleanly below the 4-hour Cloud so Monday will face the battle between hourly & 4-hour Clouds with the late rally reaching the hourly Cloud.

4 There is a solid 4-hour bearish divergence so a pullback or reversal is possible. Even daily FX-f RSI is now displaying a bearish divergence. The only chink in the bearish armor is that price is poking its head above the weekly Cloud. I d tend to stick with the daily bearish divergence until something else occurs. Even the 4- hour chart is showing a wedge like rally although the lines aren t clearly defined for me. However, if price drops below Friday s low we should see a stronger reaction lower

5 USDCHF A pretty choppy day a marginal new low and a correction higher to the resistance. Unfortunately no patterns. This recovery has met the declining 4- hour Cloud so expect losses on Monday

6 The warning sign for the downtrend is the daily bullish divergence. Given all 4 majors are looking rather similar it does add up to a reversal/correction at some point and quite possibly early next week We ll need hourly & 4-hour FX-f RSI to develop bullish divergences

7 GBPUSD There was a rather unbalanced head & shoulders that I would not normally consider but given the bearish divergence and the fact the right shoulder was a triangle it would be possible to trade the triangle and run a tight trailing stop. That should have provided at least 40 pips. The reversal higher rushed right up to the resistance area but without much sign of a bearish divergence

8 There are bearish divergences in hourly and 4-hourly charts. Daily FX-f RSI is pointing straight up and that does suggest follow-through next week but there is a sequence of sharply rising bars falling out over the next few days so we could still see a bearish divergence here too The fact that it has broken above the prior high looks quite positive for the longer term but we ll have to watch for the correction/reversal when it comes

9 AUDUSD The support & resistance worked well and price has ended with a possibility of a double top just a few pips below the high. It may hold but currently price is supported by the hourly Cloud and 4-hour also but with price tending to oscillate around the Clouds.

10 Here we can see a very mild hourly bearish divergence but a strong 4-hour momentum that tends to point to follow-through higher. Price has spent the entire week above the weekly Cloud which looks positive but will really need a stronger thrust next week to consolidate that break. Daily FX-f RSI is positive also so overall there is more bullish than bearish here

11 USDCAD There was a triangle that can be seen better in the hourly chart that offered 20 pips early in the day. Resistance held solid and price stepped down the support levels. Maybe potential for a double bottom at the end of the day but momentum still looks bearish so the risk does still seem lower.

12 This entire picture remains in a long, messy & erratic consolidation that looks a s if it will end up as a daily triangle. Given that weekly FX-f RSI has moved into high extremes and satisfied the bullish divergence one does have to consider the risk of losses here

13 EURJPY Support & resistance was only partially successful. However, over the day the swing highs have declined but note the higher swing low after the day s low. If this breaks above the high around it would provide a lift below yesterday s low would retain the bearish structure.

14 For the moment price remains below both 4-hour & hourly Clouds but has stalle d at the daily Cloud low. There is no weekly bullish divergence and price remains below the weekly Cloud. There is a daily bearish divergence so the emphasis does appear lower Over the day there were 3 trade set ups from patterns, all profitable, and offering a net total 50 pips to bring the month total to 970 pips. Take a trial of the FX-forecaster Trader Package to receive the support & resistance levels and indicators