the TFXT Members Guide to Risk and Money Management Guide to order types and Forex Terms

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Bernard Osborne
5 years ago
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1 17 November

2 Morning Comment - The bounce from the key 2560 level has opened the way for the S&P500 to make new highs into year end. A little frustrating as we were hoping to see the recent pullback extend to at least the 2540/2520 region. - The VIX Index is the measure of volatility on S&P 500 options. Its also know as the measure of market sentiment/fear given investors will pay more for protection during periods of risk aversion. After trading to 14.5 earlier in the week VIX has closed the session back below The S&P 500 has a strong correlation with high yield credit and high yield corporate bonds. Credit usually leads by a month or two however the two moved in lock step overnight with both bouncing from recent lows. - In yesterdays update, we opined there was a good chance that the soft wages number viewed earlier in the week would flow through into stronger Australian Unemployment Data for October. The link being businesses are benefiting from low wages, which drives employment gains. With the Unemployment rate dropping to 5.4% yesterday, its nice to see reasoning confirmed in the data. However, the data doesn t always follow logic they way we would like it to. - Technically, while the AUDUSD remains below the.7625 resistance level the Wave 3 of 3 lower call is still valid providing the AUDUSD does not reclaim.7640/50. We do note, there are signs of divergence as viewed on the RSI as well as a Doji candle which indicates of loss of downside momentum. A break of.7570 is required to regain downside momentum. 2

3 - EURNZD has enjoyed a very strong rally since the French elections earlier this year. However in recent years the /70 level has capped rallies. Two consecutive Doji candles have formed in EURNZD this week which indicate upside has stalled and a pullback is possible. (not confirmed until EURNZD trades below ). Aggressive traders who are looking for a trade into the weekend, may consider going short EURNZD in a half position size here at and adding to the position on a break below Stops should be placed initially at Tony NB: If you haven t already please take a moment to read over the TFXT Members Guide to Risk and Money Management and Guide to order types and Forex Terms used which have been uploaded to our Forum. If you do have any questions please feel free to ask me preferably via the Forum. I would love for the Forum to become the center of our trading community whereby you can meet fellow traders, discuss markets and actively learn and navigate markets. 3

4 Positions: Existing Order Review: New orders: 4

5 S&P 500 Update: The bounce from the key 2560 level has opened the way for the S&P500 to make new highs into year end. A little frustrating as we were hoping to see the recent pullback extend to at least the 2540/2520 region. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 5

6 VIX INDEX Update: The VIX Index is the measure of volatility on S&P 500 options. Its also know as the measure of market sentiment/fear given investors will pay more for protection during periods of risk aversion. After trading to 14.5 earlier in the week VIX has closed the session back below Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 6

7 S&P 500 VS HIGH YIELD CORP BONDS Update: The S&P 500 has a strong correlation with high yield credit and high yield corporate bonds. Credit usually leads by a month or two however the two moved in lock step overnight with both bouncing from recent lows. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 7

8 U.S 10 Year Interest Rates Update: U.S 10 Year yields marginally higher overnight. Ideally we would still like to see another leg lower towards the 2.25% region which would count as Wave c of Wave II. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 8

9 EURNZD Potential Trade: EURNZD has enjoyed a very strong rally since the French elections earlier this year. However in recent years the /70 level has capped rallies. Two consecutive Doji candles have formed in EURNZD this week which indicate upside has stalled and a pullback is possible. (not confirmed until EURNZD trades below ) Aggressive traders who are looking for a trade into the weekend, may consider going short a half position size here at and adding to the position on a break below Stops should be placed initially at Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 9

10 AUDNZD Update: Yesterday saw the release of Australian Unemployment data for October with the headline rate dropping to 5.4%. As we mentioned yesterday the divergence between business and consumer confidence continues and implies businesses are benefiting from low wages, which allows high employment gains. Its always nice to see some solid reasoning confirmed in the data however like most things in markets, the data doesn t follow the logic they way we would like it to. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 10

11 AUDUSD Update: In yesterdays update, we opined there was a good chance that the soft wages number viewed earlier in the week would flow through into stronger Australian Unemployment Data for October. The link being businesses are benefiting from low wages, which drives employment gains. With the Unemployment rate dropping to 5.4% yesterday, its nice to see reasoning confirmed in the data. However, the data doesn t always follow logic they way we would like it to. Technically, while the AUDUSD remains below the.7625 resistance level the Wave 3 of 3 lower call is still valid providing the AUDUSD does not reclaim.7640/50. We do note, there are signs of divergence as viewed on the RSI as well as a Doji candle which indicates of loss of downside momentum. A break of.7570 is required to regain downside momentum. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 11

12 GBPUSD Potential Trade: A break below /60 and then would suggest a move towards is unfolding. I am looking to take a short trade should both of the previously mentioned levels break. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 12

13 EURUSD Update: The EURUSD has retraced further away from area leaving yet another false break in FX markets. Nonetheless my view remains the move from the high was a corrective pullback with new highs to follow. Hence we are looking for pullbacks on the intraday charts to initiate long trades, with the /25 of interest. Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of the 17th of Nov. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does 13

14 DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER TECHFX TRADERS PTY LTD (ACN ) is an Authorised Representative ( ) of KP International Group Pty Ltd (ABN AFSL No ). The information contained in this report is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. This report is intended solely for the information of the person to whom it is provided by TECHFX TRADERS, and has been prepared without taking into account your particular circumstances and needs. The information in this report should not be taken as constituting or relied upon as being any financial product advice. Although every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this website, TECHFX TRADERS, its officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability (except for any liability which by law cannot be excluded), for any error, inaccuracy in, or omission from the information contained on this website or any loss or damage suffered by any person directly or indirectly through relying on this information. Opinions constitute TECHFX TRADERS s judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. TECHFX TRADERS owns copyright in the information and material provided contained on this website. Information may be printed or downloaded for personal use. The information may not otherwise be reproduced and must not be distributed or transmitted to any other person or used in any way without the express approval of TECHFX TRADERS. 14

the TFXT Members Guide to Risk and Money Management Guide to order types and Forex Terms

the TFXT Members Guide to Risk and Money Management Guide to order types and Forex Terms 15 December Morning Comment - No record highs for the first time this week and after registering two Doji type daily candles in recent days, the S&P has seen some follow through to the downside overnight.