UK July budget surplus. Biggest since the year 2000

Transcription

1 UK July budget surplus Biggest since the year 2000 Thanks to income tax receipts, especially from the self-employed, the government posted a surplus of 2 billion in July, double what it was at this point last year. This means that the overall budget deficit for this financial year stands at 12.8 billion, down 40 per cent on this time last year and the lowest since For the financial year ending March 2018 the deficit was 39.4 billion, down 6.4 billion on the previous year and almost 6 billion below estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Yesterday the US S&P 500 index inched to a new record high at , with a bull market that is now 3453 days old today. This equals the rally we saw from October 1990 to March 2000 which thus far has been the longest in history. Nicole Elliott

2 DAX 30 A little shooting star candle yesterday is balanced by the MACD which is a lot less bearish. German foreign minister Heiko Maas wrote in daily Handelsblatt that Europe should not allow the US to act over our heads at our expense. For that reason, it s essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels that are independent of the US, creating a European Monetary Fund and building up an independent SWIFT [payment] system. SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 12635; stop above Target POSITION TAKER: Square ii

3 FTSE 100 The MACD is still bearish and yesterday s small bearish engulfing candle hints that a new interim high around 7600 might be in place. SHORT TERM TRADER: Square. POSITION TAKER: Small short at 7799; stop well above First target 7400, then iii

4 S&P 500 Not quite front page news, but newsworthy, as the index inches to a new record high and the media s counting the days to the longest bull market ever. Slightly worrying for them might be yesterday s shooting star little candle and the divergence with a descending RSI. SHORT TERM TRADER: Short at 2795; stop above Target POSITION TAKER: Short at 2805; stop above Target iv

5 BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR Momentum might turn bullish today, boosted by the decent rally yesterday after the break above SHORT TERM TRADER: Small long at ; stop below Target POSITION TAKER: Square v

6 EURO/US DOLLAR Managing to close yesterday just inside the lower edge of the symmetrical triangle that had dominated since May. Momentum has yet to turn bullish and we might see better volume as the US dollar looks set to become more of a two-way street. Reuters data published yesterday shows that London dominated the FX market again in 2017, up 23 per cent from last year with average daily volume $2.7 trillion daily, more than double its next rival, New York. SHORT TERM TRADER: Turn up for the books as I booked a nice quick profit on my long position. Now will think where to re-buy. POSITION TAKER: Square vi

7 GOLD Not quite sure from where to start drawing my Fibonacci retracements but trying to get an idea of where to go short again. SHORT TERM TRADER: Square. POSITION TAKER: Short at 1242; stop above Target vii

8 Nicole Elliott is a long-standing member and Fellow of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting. The Financial Times Ltd Investors Chronicle is trademark of Financial Times Ltd. "Financial Times" and "FT" are registered trademarks and service marks of the Financial Times Limited. All rights reserved. No part of this publication or information contained within it may be commercially exploited in any way without prior permission in writing from the editor. Material (including tips) contained herein is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making (or refraining from making) any specific investment decision. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Financial Times Business Limited does not accept any liability for any loss suffered by any user as a result of any such decision. Do remember, particularly if you are new to stock market investment, that the prices of shares and other investments can fall sharply. You may not get back the money you originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. In comparing the investments described in this publication, you should bear in mind that the nature of such investments and of the returns, risks and charges differ from one investment to another. Smaller companies with a short track record by their nature tend to be more risky than larger, well-established companies. The investments and services mentioned in this publication will not be suitable for all readers. In some cases (for example, but without limitation, where an investment or service is provided by a party who is not authorised by the Financial Services Authority) you would not be protected by the investor protection measures required under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000: for the sake of illustration only, you might not be able to claim under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Provision of the investments or services mentioned on this website may be restricted by law depending on the jurisdiction in which you are resident, and on what type of investor you are. If you have any doubts about the suitability or legality of any investment or service, you should take appropriate professional advice. The views and recommendations in this publication are based on information from a variety of sources. Although these are believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information herein. While we require our journalists and editorial staff to comply with the Press Complaints Commission Code of Practice, you should be aware that they may have interests in investments and/or providers of services referred to in this publication. viii