- GCRU- Weekly Trading Service Welcome Subscribers

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1 - GCRU- Weekly Trading Service Welcome Subscribers GCRU #570 December 11, 2013 (in its 12 th year) IN THIS EDITION NOT OUT OF THE WOODS 3 Open Positions 19 Abbreviations 20 GOLD, SILVER, INDICES Gold (futures) 5 Silver (futures) 6 HUI Index 7 Advance/Decline Line 8 STOCKS Gold Miners Bear 3x (DUST) 10 Gold Reverse 2x (GLL) 11 UltraShort Silver 3x (ZSL) 12 OTHER MARKETS Crude (futures) Yr Treasury Bond (TLT) 15 S&P 500 (futures) 16 US Dollar (futures) 17 Copper (futures) 18 Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in getting up every time we do Confucius 1

2 BOUNCING UP Gold jumped up to a 3 week high yesterday on a growing view that the Federal Reserve will need more time before it starts to taper. This affected most markets. Silver, platinum, palladium, copper, crude, natural gas and gold shares all rose to several week highs. It also boosted the bond market and currencies, while putting pressure on the Dollar and the stock market. Better economic news has been causing investors to believe tapering would be happening soon, but this is changing. The focus this week is on the prospect of a U.S. budget deal this Friday as well as the Fed's meeting next week. Gold reached an intraday low on Friday at 1210 as it continues to get closer to its June lows. Interestingly, as weak as gold has been since September, it's held stubbornly above the June lows, and it's bouncing up from those lows. Now that gold is closer to our key level, we'll be watching it carefully. Will gold break the June lows, or not... like gold shares have already done. Our chart of the week gives us some insight. As you know, gold and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions, but a change started in September. Gold had lot's going for it to rise. It's was a seasonally strong demand time for gold and the Dollar was falling. Yet gold fell. It then fell again in November to its intraday low last Friday. The dollar, meanwhile, tried to rise from its October lows only to peter out in November. It too has been weak and it reached a 6 week low yesterday. We may be starting to see the begining of a rising gold price and a declining dollar, but it's not set in stone. The key here is to keep your eye on the Dollar index and the gold price to see if they will continue to move in opposite directions. We remain short with our positions and with our eyes peeled on the lows. They're our target levels, and possibly lower. To refresh your memories... $1180 for gold, $18.20 for silver and 170 for the HUI Gold Bugs index. We're also positioning ourselves to buy at possible extremes. Our positions are fine. We're keeping our shorts on gold, silver and gold shares via their inverse ETFs, and we're adding an open order to buy more at a lower price. We're also keeping our shorts on the S&P500 and adding more. If gold and silver fall sharply we have open orders to buy at extremes. We have a new option trade on crude oil. With its jump up this week, it's a prime candidate for a put strategy. Our bond trade is fine and TLT looks poised to rise. 2

3 As you know we're long term bullish on gold, and short term bearish and uncertain. There's been strong demand out of Asia and especially China. Another recent example is the new gold vault in Shanghai that is big enough to store 2000 tones. This reflects serious gold buyers. The next chart shows the bombed out and tossed aside gold shares. It's been a gruesome fall and it needs more work on the upside before the trends change. Silver is in the doldrums but it looks better compared to the shares. The HUI index could rise to possibly 230, and still be in a steep 13 month downtrend. Likewise for silver, it could rise to the $21.50 level and still be vulnerable. Don't be surprised to see more ST upside, but keep in mind, the metals are not out of the woods yet. We'll be ready to offset our shorts and buy specific stocks or ETFs when the time is right. Volatility is most likely to happen this week. We're well positioned for the ST. Good luck and good trading. Our warmest wishes to you and until next Wednesday. The Adens... Pam, MaryAnne and Omar If it's Wednesday, it must be GCRU 3

4 GOLD, SILVER & INDICES 4

5 GOLD FEBRUARY 2013 (GCG14) 12/10/13 CLOSE = JUL BREAKING OUT OF DOWNSIDE WEDGE WITH TARGET AT OPTION TRADE Bought Dec /1700 COMEX gold call spreads for approximately $1,300 (Nov-20-13) JUN QUIETLY RISING ABOVE MT MA J J A S O N D New Recom: Stay out for now. We continue to recommend trading the downside through 2x inverse ETF GLL as shown on page 11. Buy gold below ST Breakout? Gold is breaking above its Oct downtrend as it peeks above 1250 on average volume. Although this is a good sign of strength, gold must break above its 2013 downtrend on a 2dc above 1325 to see a reversal that would push gold to test the Aug highs near If gold fails to break above its next key resistance at 1325, it'll confirm weakness and will decline once again to test the Jun lows near 1180, our ST downside target. A break below this support will push gold down to the H&S Top target at Downside pressure remains strong and H&S top is still valid. Keep in mind that our position on gold for the LT continues being bullish. However, ST weakness will likely continue to dominate the gold market which is why we continue to recommend trading the downside, at least until gold's key resistance at 1325 is clearly broken. Take advantage of intermediate strength such as today's rise to add to your GLL position (2x gold inverse ETF). If gold falls below 1200, buy gold long

6 SILVER MARCH 2014 (SIH14) 12/10/13 CLOSE= BOUNCING FROM SUPPORT & DOWNSIDE WEDGE WITH TARGET AT OPTION TRADE Bought Dec /27 COMEX silver call spreads for approximately $1,010. (Nov-20-13) 21 JUN 19 RISING ABOVE MT MA! BUT NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET J J A S O N D Long New Recom: at: Holding some silver at Avg 24. Bot (Jul-24-13), (Aug-22-13) & 23 (Aug- Stay out for now. We're trading the downside through ZSL as seen on page 12. Silver bounced up from its key support near the Jun lows, breaking above the Oct downtrend showing strength. Spinner rising, testing the zero line. A cross above the zero line would be bullish. Silver looks poised to test the 2013 downtrend near A break above this level would show a trend reversal and a rise to the Aug highs near 25 would be likely. On the downside, if silver fails to break above the 2013 uptrend, it'll likely fall back to test the Jun lows. A break below this level would confirm a strong bear and a decline to 16 would likely follow. Keep your ZSL position (2x silver inverse ETF), and add more if silver rises and resists at/or below 22. If silver falls below the level buy some silver longs. 6

7 HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI) 12/10/13 CLOSE= ROSE TO KEY ST RESISTANCE ( DOWNTREND) JUN BREAKING ABOVE MT MA... LOOKING BEETER WATCH ZERO LINE J J A S O N D MACD (12, 26, 9) ALSO WATCH ZERO LINE J J A S O N D Has found some support above 190 level. However, to confirm strength, HUI must break above ST resistance on a 2dc above 205 (Oct downtrend). HUI could then test its next key resistance at 230. A break above this level would be a bullish trend reversal. However, failure to break above these key resistance levels would confirm weakness and more downside would probably follow. Spinner starting to break above its MT MA for the first time in over 4wks. However, keep an eye on Spinner's zero line, as a break above it would be necessary to confirm strength. MACD rising from a low area, but still bearish. Overall downside pressure remains strong. In the meantime, our strategy remains the same. Even though we're long term bulls and rises such as what we've seen today are refreshing, we continue to recommend trading the downside until the key resistance and downtrends are broken. Take advantage of ST strength to buy more DUST and be quick to sell when profit targets are reached

8 ADEN GOLD STOCKS ADV/DEC LINE 12/10/13 CLOSE= DAY MA DOWNTREND IS KEY J J A S O N D NOV BREAKING ABOVE MT MA... LOOKING GOOD! NOT OUT OF THE WOODS JUST YET DEC MACD (12, 26, 9) RISING FROM OVERSOLD J J A S O N D Continues to decline to new lows confirming weakness showing more downside is likely. The A/D Line has been a leading indicator for gold shares and continues to show an open downside. To show real strength, the A/D Line must break above 4650 (Aug downtrend) on a 2dc initially and then above its 75 day MA on a 2dc above A break above both of these levels could push the A/D Line to its next key resistance at the Aug highs (4835). However, it'll remain weak below these levels. Spinner piercing above its MT MA showing strength, but must cross above the zero line to confirm. MACD starting to rise from extreme oversold. Indicators showing rising momentum in gold shares, but must first break above key resistance levels to confirm strength that would show good upside potential. Downside risk continues to outweigh upside potential. Keep your inverse ETFs and add more on bounces and resistance levels. 8

9 STOCKS 9

10 DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X Shrs (DUST) 12/10/13 CLOSE= JUN RESISTED BELOW HIGHS BROKE BELOW MT MA BUT STILL ABOVE ZERO J J A S O N D GOLD MINER BEAR 3X DIREXION (NYSE: DUST) Long at: Stop: Profit Target 44 (Nov-27-13), (Nov-29-13), 41 (Dec-10-13). 2dc below 30 (adjusted). 55 & 70. New Recom: If did not buy this week, buy more at/or below 40. DUST resisted below the Aug highs showing some weakness that pushed it to the Oct uptrend near 40. DUST is currently holding at the Oct uptrend showing some strength. However, DUST must resume its rise and break above the Aug high resistance near 55 to confirm strength. A break above this level would push DUST to our second profit target at 70 or higher. On the downside, the Oct uptrend is a key ST support. A break below 40 on a 2dc would show weakness. However, keep an eye on the Aug/Oct uptrend near 30, as this level is key. As long as DUST holds above it, it ll be poised to rise. 10

11 FEB ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) 12/10/13 CLOSE= USD$ BROKE BELOW UPTREND = WEAKNESS ST JUN TURNING DOWN... KEEP AN EYE ON ZERO LINE F M A M J J A S O N D ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) -NYSEArca Long: (Oct-16-13), 97 (Nov-29-13), 97 (Dec-4-13). Stop: 2dc below 86. Profit Target: 105 & 114 New Recom: Buy more at or near 90. GLL broke below its ST support at the Oct uptrend as Spinner tests its zero line showing weakness. This tells us GLL could now decline to test the Feb uptrend near 86. As long as GLL holds above this uptrend, it'll be poised to rise to the Jun highs near 114. On the downside, a break below the Feb uptrend on a 2dc below 86 would be a trend reversal and a decline to the Aug lows, initially, would be likely. Keep your positions as GLL still looks strong despite recent weakness. 11

12 ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) 12/10/13 CLOSE= US$ BREAKING BELOW UPTREND... UPTREND NEAR 73 IS KEY SUPPORT TURNING BEARISH BELOW ZERO LINE A S O N D -20 ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) -NYSEArca Long at: (14-Nov-13), (Nov-27-13). Stop: Profit Target: 2dc below 73 (adjusted). 100 (almost reached!) & 110 New Recom: Buy again below 80. ZSL broke below the Oct uptrend showing ST weakness. ZSL has some support at 80 where it currently holds. However, ZSL could decline to its next key support at 72 (Aug uptrend). A break below this level would be bearish. Spinner piercing below the zero line showing weakness. However, if ZSL holds above the Aug uptrend, it ll continue showing strength and a rise to test the Aug highs once again would be likely. Keep your positons. Take advantage of weakness to add to your position. Upside potential outweighs downside risk. 12

13 OTHER MARKETS 13

14 LIGHT CRUDE OIL JUNE 2014 (CLM14) 12/10/13 CLOSE= APPROACHING KEY RESISTANCE, DOWNTREND OPTION TRADE Consider buying June 2014 Crude Put Spread at 91/87.50 for a total of $880 plus fees. Any commodity broker can help you with this. TOPPING AT ST OVERBOUGHT A S O N D New Recom: OPTION TRADE: Consider buying Jun 2014 Crude 91/87.50 put spread at $880 plus fees. If at expiration Jun 2014 crude is worth you could make a total return of $3,500. Maximum risk is $880. Crude rising sharply to the top side of the Aug upchannel near 98 showing strength. However, crude must now break above the Aug downtrend on a 2dc above 98 to confirm recent strength. However, if crude fails to break above this resistance, it ll show weakness and could decline to the bottom side of the Aug upchannel near 92 or lower. Spinner looking for a top at the most extreme oversold level in over 25 wks confirming strong resistance at the Aug downtrend and showing a limited upside. Overall, downside risk outweighs upside potential which is why we re recommending to trade the downside with our option strategy. NOV RMB Group in Chicago are longtime friends and options brokers. They d be happy to help you. Call them at or Sue at suerutsen@r mbgroup.co m 14

15 ishares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 12/10/13 CLOSE= BOUNCING UP FROM /SEPT SUPPORT SEPT DEC 102 BEARISH BELOW MT MA & ZERO LINE, BUT TRYING TO BOTTOM J A S O N D Long at: Stop: Profit Target 108 (Oct-23-13), (Oct-5-13), (Nov-6-13), 104 (Nov-27-13) 2dc below & 111 New Recom: Keep your positions. TLT proved to have strong support at its Aug/Sept lows at 102 once again. TLT is bouncing from its support, approaching its first important resistance at 105, the Oct downtrend. A break above this level would show strength and a rise to test the Oct highs near 109 would be likely. Spinner testing both, its MT MA and zero line. A clear Spinner break above both these levels would show strength that could push TLT to its Oct high resistance. On the downside, keep an eye on 102, the Aug/Sept lows as they are key. 15

16 S&P 500 INDEX MARCH 2014 (SPH14) 12/10/13 CLOSE= OPTION TRADE RISING WEDGE STILL VALID... MUST BREAK ABOVE 1805 FOR RENEWED STRENGTH Bought March 2014 E Mini S&P 1700/1600 put spread for $800 approximately. (Nov-20-13) JUN HOLDING NEAR ZERO LINE = SIGN OF STRENGTH J J A S O N D Short Positions: Stop: Profit Targets New Recom: 1803 (Nov-27-13), 1795 (Dec-6-13). 2dc above & Keep your positions. Breakdown, pull back The S&P 500 pulled back to the 1800 level after breaking below its upside wedge with downside target at However, the upside wedge is still valid as long as S&P does not break into new highs above On the upside, Spinner formed a bottom near the zero line showing strength. Spinner is testing its MT MA, and a break above its MT MA would confirm strength that could push S&P to new highs once again. Overall, S&P is due for a breather. Take into consideration that S&P has not had a 10% correction since the fall of Downside pressure is starting to add up. We recommend being ready for weakness to gain on the downside. 16

17 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX MARCH 2014 (DXH14) 12/10/13 CLOSE= JUL FAILED TO BREAK ABOVE RESISTANCE = WEAKNESS KEEP AN EYE ON 80 (ST KEY SUPPORT) NOV BEARISH... STILL MORE ROOM FOR DOWNSIDE J A S O N D New Recom: Stay out. Bullish Flag failed The US Dollar Index was unable to break above its Jul downtrend & key resistance above showing weakness that pushed it below its ST support. The dollar is now poised to decline further, to possibly the bottom side of the Jun downchannel near 78. The dollar must break below its intermediate support at 79 first. A break below 79 would be bullish for gold. Spinner bearish showing more downside is likely. On the upside, the dollar must break above its Jul downtrend on a 2dc above 81 to see renewed strength that could push the dollar to test the Jul highs near

18 COPPER MARCH 2014 (HGH14) 12/10/13 CLOSE= MAY JUN BROKE ABOVE DOWNTREND = ST STRENGTH NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET 3.5 STRONG RESISTANCE SEPT 3.2 NOV 3.1 JUN 3 BROKE ABOVE ZERO LINE! LOOKING GOOD 2.9 M J J A S O N D New Recom: Stay out. Copper continues to rise from the Nov lows, breaking above the Oct downtrend, reaching a 4wk high today! Spinner confirms strength as it broke above the zero line after having resisted at it for more than 8wks straight However, we're keeping a close eye on the Aug downtrend near 3.30 and the May/Jun triple top resistance at Both of these are key resistance levels for copper to overcome before turning bullish. On the downside, if copper fails to break above these key resistance levels, it'll show weakness and a decline to test the Jun lows near 3 would be likely. Stay out for now. We'll be looking to buy again on a breakout above 3.40 or on a decline that holds above the Jun lows near 3. 18

19 OPEN POSITIONS Symbol Trade Update &/or Current Position Status (L=Long, S= Short, O= Out) Initial Entry Date Initial Entry Price Traders rebot/ -sold at Last Closing Price Stops Target #1 Target #2 GOLD & SILVER SHARES DUST If did not buy this week, buy more at/or below L Nov , dc below ZSL Buy again below 80. L Nov dc below GLL Buy more at or near 90. L Oct , dc below TLT Keep your positions. L Oct , , dc below Gold - GCG14 Stay out for now. We continue to recommend trading the downside through 2x inverse ETF GLL as shown on page 11. Buy gold below FUTURES O Crude- CLM14 Silver SIH14 OPTION TRADE: Consider buying Jun 2014 Crude 91/87.50 put spread at $880 plus fees. If at expiration Jun 2014 crude is worth you could make a total return of $3,500. Maximum risk is $880. Stay out for now. We're trading the downside through ZSL as seen on page 12. O O S&P SPH14 Keep your positions. S dc above US Dollar DXH14 Stay out. O COPPER HGH14 Stay out. O

20 *************************************************************************************************** Quoting GCRU is permitted provided GCRU name, website address ABBREVIATIONS & subscription price are given. All charts in GCRU are daily prices. Fax subscribers please note this week s password to access GCRU daily edition via our website is: (deadcatbounce). Subscribers can obtain free online chart updates for all gold shares in GCRU via: To view Canadian stks please use CA as prefix (ie, to view Agnico Eagle (Toronto) you must use CA:AEM). Note: U should NOT feel our recommended prices are set in concrete. If mkts suddenly feel hot or cold to U, or dramatic news occurs, U can buy or sell, or stop at slightly higher or slightly lower prices. It also hinges on your experience level. Some people can use our prices as guides & know when they can take bigger risks. Spinner: Spinner is an in-house momentum indicator (not always shown on charts). Momentum indicators use the rate of change in price to determine predominant energy flows. Spinner trading signals are generated when the faster timing line crosses above or below the slower confirming line. Upside crosses in the lower range of positive territory offer the most reliable signals for longs; downside crosses in the top range of negative territory for shorts. Avoid trading against the timing line, ie, buying/selling if the timing line is in corrective mode (against direction of trade) unless the 1dc 2dc bot CAD$ H&S LOC LT MT NL PF PO Recom RH&S RS ST Sym/tri Tgt Unch Vol Wk Ystdy C 1-day close (the share price must close above or below the indicated price level, before our recommendation is activated) 2-day close (consecutive) bought Canadian dollar head & shoulder line on close long term medium term neckline portfolio price objective recommended reverse head & shoulder relative strength short term symmetrical triangle target unchanged volume week yesterday close confirming line is positioning for a new 'confirming cycle'. It's important to always be aware of location, direction & cycling phase of the confirming line. Spinner signals are more effective in trending mkt's than in trading ranges where indicators such as Stochastics & Williams %R should be used. NOTE: payments for GCRU services should be made payable to MAP CUSTOMER SERVICE. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is published weekly. You may sign up for 3-mos at $300, 6-mos at $585, 9-mos at $855 or 12-mos $1, gcru@adenforecast.com - DISCLAIMER - Due to the electronic nature of s, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us can accept no responsibility or liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Whilst efforts are made to safeguard messages and attachments, Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Information in Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is for general information only & is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us do not guarantee or assure that readers will make money, or accept liability for any loss suffered by readers as a result of any such decision. Futures and share trading involves risk and is not for all investors. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and should be pursued with risk capital only! 20