- GCRU- Weekly Trading Service

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1 - GCRU- Weekly Trading Service GCRU #644 June 24, 215 (in its 14 th year) IN THIS EDITION MOVERS AND SHAKERS 2 Open Positions 21 Abbreviations 22 KET LEADERS Gold (futures) 6 Silver (futures) 7 US Dollar Index 8 Copper (futures) 9 Crude (futures) 1 D. Industrials & D. Transports 11 HUI & Adv/Dec Line 12 STOCKS ishares 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 14 Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) 15 Mkt Vectors Jr. Gold Miners (GDXJ) 16 Direxion Gold Miners Bull 3x (NUGT) 17 Proshares UltraShort S&P 5 (SDS) 18 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) 19 Direxion Gold Miners Bear 3x (DUST) 2 ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil (SCO) 1 Our greatest glory is not in never failing, but in rising up every time we fail Ralph Waldo Emerson 1

2 MOVERS AND SHAKERS I t was all about Greece this week. But the bottom line is, most markets continue to fluctuate within specific trading bands Gold continues to hold above the Nov uptrend, despite having been whacked after peeking above the 12 level. Downside pressure remains strong, putting a lid on gold s upside potential ST. However, gold s base above the Nov uptrend continues to strengthen. Silver is a similar story but it s not as strong as gold. The resource sector declined sharply as deflationary forces strengthen. Nevertheless, silver will remain strong as long as it holds above its support at We continue to hold full positions in both gold and silver. We also continue to buy on weakness, ideally near the support levels. Our Chart of the Week shows the HUI Gold Bugs Index with its two leading indicators. As you can see, HUI declined again as it nears a key support level near 15. Gold shares are weak but they re oversold ST. Most impressive, the HUI s leading MT indicator is bottoming. This tells us that a rebound rise is soon likely. We added AEM to our position as highlighted in our Trigger Alert last Thursday. We now have a full position and are waiting for a potential rebound. We re adding some GDXJ to our open positions too, and a more volatile trade with NUGT (3x HUI). We also sold DUST last Wednesday for a 17% gain. DUST continues to be erratic. It actually closed the day lower than yesterday even though HUI declined further. This tells us that short positions in gold shares may be decreasing. That is, some money may start flowing to long positions, which could fuel a rebound rise in this oversold sector. We sold TLT on an inter-week rebound rise for a small loss. TLT continues to decline as the dollar strengthens. Bonds and the US dollar parted ways this week. However, bonds could also be leading the US Dollar Index to the downside. As you can see on the Chart, the US Dollar Index remains weak below its 75 day MA near 97, despite today s bullish action. And even though the dollar s leading ST indicator could rise further, if the dollar fails to rise above 97, it ll confirm weakness. We could then see it decline to test its neckline (NL) support near

3 Dr. Copper reinforces this reality. As you ll see in the chart below, copper continues to decline, showing that demand in the resource sector is still falling and deflationary forces are strengthening. Signs of caution are telling us the world economic recovery is fragile, if not lackluster. The stock market surged. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2 Indexes rose to new highs. But the S&P 5 and the Dow Averages continue to lag, despite showing strength. The Transportation Average has become a real barometer in our view. We ve been pointing out during 215 that the nonconfirmation in the Dow Transportations was a bearish sign. Today s action confirms weakness as the Dow Transportations failed to break above a key resistance level. However, it continues to sit in a lofty position, well above the 8, level. Remember, the dollar has formed a bearish H&S top and a break below it s NL support on a 2dc below 93.5 could trigger more downside pressure. Crude spiked up to test the top side of its trading band. Today it rose sharply, despite dollar strength. Although this could mean that a resurgence in demand is brewing, it s more likely telling us that the dollar is weaker than it appears. Unless crude breaks clearly above its resistance, we ll continue to hold on to our bear put spreads and SCO (inverse ETF to crude). The Dow Industrials, on the other hand, rose sharply after showing concerns that a correction could be in the works. However, it has yet to break above key resistance levels which would show real strength. For now, we sold SDS in our Trigger Alert and we ll stay on the sidelines until the Averages show a clear direction as to where the stock market is headed. The Euro moved higher, but it also failed to penetrate the May highs near Until the Greece issue moves to the back burner, we re unlikely to see a clear direction for 3

4 the Euro. Meanwhile, we continue to have an open order. Our strategy for this week is to cautiously add to your gold share positions. We ll be looking to profit from a rebound rise. We ll also continue to hold our bear put spreads on crude and the US dollar. Continue to hold SCO. Good luck and good trading, Omar Ayales Chief Trading Strategist GoldChartsRUs A division of Aden Research Remember if it s Wednesday, it must be a GCRU day! 4

5 KET LEADERS 5

6 GOLD SEPTEMBER 215 (GCQ15) 6/23/215 CLOSE = JAN HOLDING ABOVE KEY SUPPORT BUT SHOWING WEAKNESS BELOW JAN DOWNTREND FEB IS KEY SUPPORT NOV TURNING BULLISH... WILL UPSIDE MOMENTUM HOLD? N D J F M A M J LT Call Spread Long at: Stops Bought Dec /17 COMEX gold call spreads for approx $1,3 (Nov-2-13) & Dec /16 gold call spreads for approx. $875 (Jan-8-14) (Jan-14-15), 1232 (Feb-6-15), 125 (Feb-17-15), 1198 (Mar 3-15), 1198 (Mar-4-15), 1155 (Mar-18-15), 118 (Jun-1-15). 2dc below Profit Targets 135 & 142. New Recom Keep your position. Nov uptrend is key but we can t lose sight of Jan downtrend Gold continues rising within its Nov upchannel. It s holding above ST support levels despite a failed attempt to break above the Jan downtrend last week. Notice Spinner rising. It ll continue showing upside potential as long as it remains above its own uptrend. Longer term view, 1143 is gold s key support and we recommend holding on to your positions as long as gold stays, above this level. Keep in mind, gold must break above the Jan downtrend on a 2dc above 1215 to show signs of strength that could fuel a rise to the top side of the Nov upchannel near 124 initially and to test the Jan highs thereafter. 6

7 SILVER JULY 215 (SIN15) 6/23/215 CLOSE= JAN SLIPPING BELOW NOV UPTREND... DOWNSIDE PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUN NOV NOV/ LOW AREAS ARE KEY SUPPORT AT 15.4 RESISTING AT THE ZERO LINE, BUT FIRM ABOVE MT MA N D J F M A M J LT Call Spread Long at: Bought Dec /27 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $1,1 (Nov-2-13) & Dec 215 (23/24 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $725 (Dec-24-13) (Dec-1-14), (Feb-23-15), 16.1 (Mar-3-15), (Jun-1-15). Long Stop 3dc below Long Profit Target New Recom: 18+, 2 & 22. Keep your positions. Sell half at 18 or better. Silver slipped below its Nov uptrend, increasing downside pressure. Weakness in gold after failing to jump above a resistance level combined with a lackluster resource sector is pushing silver lower. Silver reached a 1+ mo low today. Spinner resisted at the zero line, failing to cross into bullish territory. Signs of weakness. On the other hand, upside potential remains strong MT as long as silver holds on to its support at However, silver must break above the May downtrend on a 2dc above to show renewed strength. It could then rise to silver's next resistance and our profit target near 18. 7

8 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SEPTEMBER 215 (DXU15) 6/23/215 CLOSE= WILL THE DOLLAR CONTINUE TO HOLD AT THE NL SUPPORT? LS H RS DEC BEARISH BUT APPROACHING A LOW AREA O N D J F M A M J Bearish Put Spread Stop Profit Target New Recom: Sept 215 DX 94/9 put $5 (Apr-22-15). 2dc above & 9 Keep your position. The US dollar index has rebounded from its NL support level and it s now testing its 25 day MA. Although the dollar s rise today has been impressive, it hasn t really broken above key levels. The dollar must break above the Mar downtrend on a 2dc above 98.5 to show strength. If not, it'll remain weak and a decline to test its NL support would be likely. Keep in mind, a clear break below the NL support (now 2dc below 93.5) would confirm a bearish H&S top pattern and a decline to the higher 8s could then follow. Keep your put spreads on the dollar as downside pressure remains strong. 8

9 COPPER JULY 215 (HGN15) 6/23/215 CLOSE= BEARISH... DEFLATIONARY FORCES STRENGTHEN JAN BEARISH - LOOKING FOR A BOTTOM J F M A M J New Recom: Stay out. Copper continues to decline sharply, unable to break above its steep May downtrend showing weakness. Spinner is also looking for a bottom at bearish levels. Weakness in copper is telling us the world economic recovery is lackluster and remains under pressure. Copper must first break above the May downtrend on a 2dc above 2.65 to show signs of strength. However, a rise above the May highs is necessary to see stabilization in the resource sector. This weakness will likely continue to add downside pressure to silver, crude as well as other resources. 9

10 LIGHT CRUDE OIL DECEMBER 215 (CLZ15) 6/23/215 CLOSE= ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) 6/23/215 CLOSE= CONTINUES TO SWING WITHIN DOWNCHANNEL HUGGING BOTTOM SIDE OF UPCHANNEL JAN SUPPORT STILL LACKLUSTER J F M A M J STILL NEUTRAL M A M J Bearish Put Spread 49/45 Dec 215 Crude put $38. Long Stop 53 (May-6-15), 54 (Jun-3-15). 2dc below 53. New Recom: Keep your positions. Profit Target New Recom; 6, 62 & 7 Keep your positions. Sell above 6. Rose to the top side of May downchannel Crude continues to fluctuate within a tight trading range, specifically the May downchannel between 63 and 58. Crude must rise clearly above the May downtrend to show renewed strength. However, Spinner is flat and has failed to show signs of life. This tells us crude's rise is likely without supportive strength and we could see a decline to the bottom side of the trading band near 58. Crude will remain under pressure as long as the oil glut remains. We recommend keeping your shorts for now. SCO remains under pressure as crude tests a key resistance level. However, SCO is holding on to its uptrend and support near 54. If SCO holds on to its uptrend & support in the following weeks, we ll likely see it rise to the top side of the May upchannel near 65, past our first two profit targets. Keep your positions and sell above 6 to protect profits. 1

11 SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (DIA) 6/23/215 CLOSE= SHOWING WEAKNESS BELOW Shares Transportation Average (^IYT) 6/23/215 CLOSE= FEB APPROACHING KEY RESISTANCE FEB 174 TURNING BULLISH BUT ROLLING OVER AT RESISTANCE 2.5 ON THE RISE JUN F M A M J F M A M J MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD (12, 26, 9) F M A M J F M A M J New Recom Stay out. ZERO LINE IS KEY RESISTANCE CROSSED INTO BULLISH The Dow Averages are rebounding but have failed to issue a bullish Dow Theory confirmation. The Industrials which have been stronger, broke above the May downtrend and are now approaching the top side of a channel. The Industrials must rise above the top side of the band to show strength. None-theless, indicators are lackluster. Spinner broke above zero, but it s now rolling over below a resistance level. MACD has not attempted a cross above the zero line. On the other hand, the Transportations are resisting at the Mar downtrend. Spinner crossed above zero but it s fast approaching a downtrend & resistance which is adding downside pressure. MACD has room to rise further, but its also curbing. Keep in mind both averages are at a crossroads. If the Industrials rise to new highs and the Transportations break above the Mar downtrend we could see strength and higher highs. However, if both averages resist at current levels, weakness would be confirmed. Remember both averages must rise above their previous highs for a bullish Dow Theory signal to be triggered. Stay out for now as upside potential is limited until we can see a clear indication of stocks moving to higher levels. 11

12 ADEN GOLD STOCKS ADV/DEC LINE 6/23/215 CLOSE = 4374 HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI) 6/23/215 CLOSE= DAY MA HUGGING BOTTOM SIDE OF DOWNCHANNEL = BEARISH JAN BREAKOUT, PULL BACK OCT FEB DEC APR O N D J F M A M J NOV DEC DOWNSIDE WEDGE WITH UPSIDE TARGET AT 177 STILL FORMING N D J F M A M J RESISTANCE = WEAKNESS FAILED TO RISE ABOVE ZERO = BEARISH MACD (12, 26, 9) PEEKING ABOVE ZERO LINE = SIGN OF STRENGTH MACD (12, 26, 9) ABOVE MT MA AND TESTING RESISTANCE LEVEL O N D J F M A M J N D J F M A M J Positioned to rebound? HUI pulled back after breaking out from its bullish downside wedge as it continues to form a bottom near its key support level (15). The wedge pattern and upside target are still valid despite strong downside pressure as shown by our indicators. Notice the A/D Line hugging the bottom side of the Oct downchannel. The past 2 times the A/D Line has reached the bottom side of the channel, it has jumpd to test the top side of the channel and its 75 day MA. Both jumps were followed by rebound rises in HUI. The first jumped an approximate 4% rise (from Dec lows to Jan highs) and the second an approximate 2% rise (from the Mar lows to the Apr highs). If HUI rebounds once again, it ll likely test the Jan downtrend near 177 (near its downside wedge target). We have reversed our strategy this past week as we unloaded our positions in DUST for a profit and added to our AEM position. We ll recommend buying GDXJ (junior gold miner ETF) as they re poised to outperform the senior gold miners and NUGT, an ETF that triples action on HUI. The latter being a risky trade with explosive upside potential, but higher risk as a consequence. Moreover, keep in mind that our ST strategy will be to gain from a rebound rise. 12

13 STOCKS 13

14 ishares Barclays 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 6/23/215 CLOSE= JAN FORMING A DOWNSIDE WEDGE? DOWNSIDE PRESSURE INCREASING... APR RESISTING AT ZERO = BEARISH J F M A M J ishares Trust - ishares 2+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - NYSEArca 126 (Apr-29-15), 123 (May-4-15), 121 (May-6-15), 119 (May-13-15), 118 (Jun-3- Long at: 15). Sold all at via alert for a small 2% loss on average. New Recom: Stay out. Mixed bag of indicators... TLT remains under pressure. Spinner is showing weakness as it failed to cross into bullish territory. The Apr downtrend is gaining strength. TLT s next likely target is at the bottom side of the Jan downchannel at 114. Bonds and the US dollar have parted ways. The dollar is stabilizing while bonds are testing the recent lows. Will bonds drag the dollar down? Or will the dollar pull bonds upward? Interest rates are overbought and due to correct. However, downside pressure on the dollar remains strong... The best position is to be out for now. We sold on strength last week and were close to breaking even. Stay our for now. 14

15 Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) 6/23/215 CLOSE= 3.1 FEB NOV TESTING (ADJ) 215 UPTREND JAN BOTTOMING ACTION CONTINUES J F M A M J -3 Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) -NYSE Long at: 3.75 (Jun-5-15), 31.5 (Jun-1-15), 3.5 (Jun-17-15). Stop: Profit Target: 2dc below & 38 New Recom: Keep your positions. Continues to bottom Weakness in gold shares continues to drag AEM down. Earlier this week, AEM hit a 1+ mo low as Spinner flirts with its uptrend. However, gold shares are oversold and near a strong support level. This tells us downside risk is likely to be limited and upside potential is lofty ST. Keep your positions for now and look to gain from a potential rebound rise. 15

16 MKT VECTORS JR. GOLD MINERS (GDXJ) 6/23/215 CLOSE= 25.5 JAN RESISTING BELOW JAN DOWNTREND BUT HOLDING ABOVE SUPPORT DEC LACKLUSTER - NEUTRAL D J F M A M J Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) - NYSEArca Buy some at mkt near 25 or better. Place stops at 2dc below 22. Profit target at New Recom: 3. GDXJ is an ETF that follows the junior sector in gold miners. The junior gold miners have been outperforming the seniors, and they tend to move with stock market strength. Stock market resurgence combined with a stable gold price above its Nov uptrend could set the stage for a rise. Buy some GDXJ at mkt. 16

17 Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT) 6/23/215 CLOSE= 8.99 JAN BOTTOMING ABOVE LOWS NEUTRAL J F M A M J Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT)-NYSEArca New Recom: Buy some at mkt. Stop loss 2dc below Profit targets at 11 and 14. Basing at Mar uptrend NUGT is forming a base near the Mar lows. The Jan downtrend is strong downside pressure. If gold shares hold at their support and rebound, we could see NUGT rise to the Jan downtrend near 11 initially, and then to the top side of the band near 14. We recommend buying some at mkt, ideally below 9 and selling on a rebound rise to the Jan downtrend for an approximate 22% gain. On the downside, be quick to sell if NUGT breaks below the Mar lows on a 2dc below Keep in mind, NUGT triples action on HUI. Just remember, great upside potential also means greater downside risk. 17

18 PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P5 (SDS) 6/23/215 CLOSE= US$ 25 DEC FEB TESTING LOWS = WEAKNESS JUN 21 FEB 2 TURNING BEARISH 19 1 D J F M A M J -1 ProShares UltraShort S&P5 (SDS)-NYSEArca Long at: 2.35 (Jun-1-15). Sold for at for a very small loss. New Recom: Stay out for now. SDS continues to decline as the stock market rebounds. SDS has broken below its support as downside pressure increases. Notice Spinner below its MT MA and zero line as it musters through bearish levels. Stay out for now. 18

19 CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) 6/23/215 CLOSE= DEC RESISTING AT HIGHS = WEAKNESS APR TURNED DOWN D J F M A M J CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) -NYSEArca New Recom: Stay out for now. Buy some below 19 and more on a decline near 16. Stop losses at 2dc below 12. Profit targets at 12. The euro failed to break above its recent highs and collapsed. Spinner broke below its MT MA showing weakness and more downside risk. Overall, concerns with Greece and loose monetary policy are putting downside pressure on the euro and causing the dollar to rally. However, the euro nations have been showing signs of a stable recovery which could easily push the euro to the 12 level, where it has found comfort in the past. We recommend buying some euros at depressed levels and holding them for a MT trade. 19

20 DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X Shrs (DUST) 6/23/215 CLOSE= RESISTING AT DOWNTREND 22 2 JUN HOLDING AT ZERO M A M J GOLD MINER BEAR 3X DIREXION (NYSE: DUST) Long at: 14.4 (May-27-15), 14 (Jun-3-15). Sold all at 16.6 for an average 17% gain! New Recom: Stay out for now. -3 Weakness looming? Although DUST moves inversely to gold shares, its rise has not been proportional to gold share weakness. This tells us that short positions in gold shares are lightening up as gold shares hold on to a solid support level. A rebound rise in gold shares is brewing. If gold shares rebound, DUST will likely collapse to the May lows near 11. Stay out for now. 2

21 OPEN POSITIONS Symbol Trade Update &/or Current Position Status Initial Initial Entry Traders re- Last Stops Target Target (L=Long, S= Entry Date Price bot/ -sold at Closing #1 #2 Short, O= Price Out P= Put C= Call) SHARES TLT Stay out. O AEM Keep your positions. L Jun , dc below SDS Stay out for now. O NUGT Buy some at mkt. Stop loss 2dc below Profit targets at 11 and 14. O dc below SCO Keep your positions. Sell above 6. L May dc below GDXJ Buy some at mkt near 25 or better. Place stops at 2dc below 22. Profit target at 3. O dc below FXE Stay out for now. Buy some below 19 and more on a decline near 16. Stop losses at 2dc below 12. Profit targets at 12. O dc below KET LEADERS Gold - GCQ15 Keep your position. L, C Jan , 125, 1198, dc below Crude- CLN15 Keep your positions. P Apr /45 Dec 215 put spread Silver SIN15 Keep your positions. Sell half at 18 or better. L, C Dec , dc below US Dollar DXU15 Keep your position. P Apr /9 Sept 215 put spread dc above COPPER HGN15 Stay out. O

22 Quoting GCRU is permitted provided GCRU name, website address & subscription price are given. All charts in GCRU are daily prices. Fax subscribers please note this week s password to access GCRU daily edition via our website is: (bottoming?). Subscribers can obtain free online chart updates for all gold shares in GCRU via: To view Canadian stks please use CA as prefix (ie, to view Agnico Eagle (Toronto) you must use CA:AEM). Note: U should NOT feel our recommended prices are set in concrete. If mkts suddenly feel hot or cold to U, or dramatic news occurs, U can buy or sell, or stop at slightly higher or slightly lower prices. It also hinges on your experience level. Some people can use our prices as guides & know when they can take bigger risks. Spinner: Spinner is an in-house momentum indicator (not always shown on charts). Momentum indicators use the rate of change in price to determine predominant energy flows. Spinner trading signals are generated when the faster timing line crosses above or below the ST Sym/tri Tgt Unch short term symmetrical triangle target unchanged slower confirming line. Upside crosses in the lower range of positive Vol volume territory offer the most reliable signals for longs; downside crosses in Wk week the top range of negative territory for shorts. Avoid trading against Ystdy yesterday the timing line, ie, buying/selling if the timing line is in corrective C close mode (against direction of trade) unless the confirming line is positioning for a new 'confirming cycle'. It's important to always be aware of location, direction & cycling phase of the confirming line. Spinner signals are more effective in trending mkt's than in trading ranges where indicators such as Stochastics & Williams %R should be used. NOTE: payments for GCRU services should be made payable to MAP CUSTOMER SERVICE. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is published weekly. You may sign up for 3-mos at $3, 6-mos at $585, 9-mos at $855 or 12-mos $1,11. gcru@adenforecast.com 1dc 2dc bot CAD$ H&S LOC LT MT NL PF PO Recom RH&S RS ABBREVIATIONS 1-day close (the share price must close above or below the indicated price level, before our recommendation is activated) 2-day close (consecutive) bought Canadian dollar head & shoulder line on close long term medium term neckline portfolio price objective recommended reverse head & shoulder relative strength - DISCLAIMER - Due to the electronic nature of s, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us can accept no responsibility or liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Whilst efforts are made to safeguard messages and attachments, Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Information in Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is for general information only & is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us do not guarantee or assure that readers will make money, or accept liability for any loss suffered by readers as a result of any such decision. Futures and share trading involves risk and is not for all investors. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and should be pursued with risk capital only! 22