- GCRU- Weekly Trading Service

Transcription

1 - GCRU- Weekly Trading Service GCRU #636 April 29, 215 (in its 14 th year) IN THIS EDITION KETS ARE IN SYNC 2 Open Positions 19 Abbreviations 2 KET LEADERS Gold (futures) 6 Silver (futures) 7 US Dollar Index 8 Copper (futures) 9 Crude (futures) 1 D. Industrials & D. Transports 11 HUI & Adv/Dec Line 12 STOCKS ishares 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 14 Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) 15 Mkt Vectors Jr. Gold Miners (GDXJ) 16 Direxion Miners Bull 3x Shrs (NUGT) 17 MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) 18 ProShares UltraShort Crude Oil (SCO) 1 Never underestimate the size of a panic, nor the power of the politician Harry Schultz - 1

2 KETS ARE IN SYNC W hen the markets are in sync like they are now, it usually means a change is upcoming. Gold, gold shares, copper and the currencies are bouncing up, for instance, while the U.S. dollar declines to an 8 week low. Plus, gold shares are better looking than gold, and junior shares are bottoming versus seniors. This is an added plus. With consumer confidence unexpectedly tumbling in April as disappointing job growth edges in, the markets are reacting. All eyes are once again on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ending today, as well as the GDP figures. Will these tell us which way next for interest rates? Will the economy still reflect sluggishness? The stock market is also on edge, and especially with more earnings coming out. Interest rates continue to be on everyone's mind and the Fed is in the world s driver seat. A sluggish world recovery and a strong dollar has investors betting that a rise in rates will likely happen later this year, if at all! This continues to put enormous pressure on the U.S. dollar which in turn is giving a boost to most asset classes, including gold. Last week we bought a bearish put spread on the dollar while still near the highs. The dollar declined and it's now testing its ST support near 96. Keep an eye on this level as a break below it will probably send the dollar lower, to possibly 94 (our first profit target) and likely lower, see the chart to the right. However, when you look at bonds, they too are under pressure. Bond prices broke below a ST support showing more downside risk. This means the bond market may still be anticipating a rate hike earlier rather than later. However keep in mind, bond prices are still in a bullish uptrend. As long at that's the case, they're poised to rise further, thereby keeping a lid on interest rates in the coming months. The S&P 5, together with the NASDAQ both reached new record highs this past week! This is the first record high for the NASDAQ in 15 years! It's now caught up with the other indexes' record highs. However, Dow Theory continues to reflect market exhaustion as the Transportation average is lagging, and sending nonconfirmations throughout 215. The Industrials are holding near the highs, but also resisting. Signs of caution are keeping us from buying stocks for now. But our open order on the 2

3 emerging market ETF, EEM is still patiently waiting to get hit. On the other hand, gold shares are gaining strength and momentum. HUI hit an 8 week high and it's peeking above its 15 week MA, showing great ST-MT potential. It's holding well above its 25 day MA now at 171, and it's getting stronger by the week. It's now poised to rise to our target level, the Jan highs near 21. Our in-house A/D Decline Line has also triggered a bullish sign as it broke above a mini H&S bottom today. This confirms strength telling us that gold shares are ready for a renewed rise. Overall we're well positioned for a gold share rise. Our first profit target was reached for AEM, and we recommend protecting profits by selling half of your position for an approximate 11% gain. We'll buy more on softness. GDXJ, our Junior mine ETF, is also rising. We re sitting on a 5%+ profit but it's still has a ways to go before hitting our first profit target. Note the chart to the right. It's a ratio of Junior mines compared to Seniors. With a beautiful downside wedge growing, it looks like Juniors are ready to well outperform seniors, which is bullish for both! We also bought NUGT on a dip last week and we're already sitting on 13%+ profits! This is our leveraged ETF on gold shares. Our Chart of the Week on the front page shows a bullish mix. Gold and silver are forming a solid looking bottom for almost 6 months now, while copper forms an uptrend this year, 215. This could be saying that gold and copper will be rising together which will give silver the best and most needed advantage. Gold's been zig zagging within a sideways band between the $1225 and $1175 levels, and it's now approaching the top side. Gold must break above this $1225 key resistance level to see renewed strength. A rise to the $13 level or higher would mean the current C rise is impressive because it will be changing a mega trend from down to up! We have a full position in gold and recommend keeping it for now. Silver continues to hold above its rock solid support near $15.4. It bounced up briskly. However, silver remains under pressure unless it rises clearly above its 75 day MA at $16.7. A sluggish resource sector has been keeping pressure on silver, but this may be changing 3

4 for now. And especially with the latest jump in the Australian Dollar... yet another market in sync. We'll continue our positions as long as silver stays above its major support. Crude continues to hold near the recent highs. But it's under pressure as it resists at the top side of a sideways band. Moreover, strong resistance is likely to continue as excess supply continues to outpace demand. Saudi Arabia pumped oil close to an alltime record during the month of Mar while crude stockpiles in the US (largest consumer in the world) are at a 3+ year high. Also producers have increased hedging in anticipation of lower oil prices. All signs that downside pressure remains. This is why we've added a put spread on crude since our last edition. We re now also showing a 2x inverse ETF for crude next to the crude oil chart in the following charts. This for those of you who want to be in on the action but aren't familiar with options. We bought a put spread this past week in anticipation of weakness in oil. We ve also added SCO, a 2x inverse ETF in case you prefer shorting crude rather than buying bearish options. We re out of bonds, awaiting a specific buy order to be filled. TLT declined further breaking its 129 support. However, it's holding above the Sept 214 uptrend and will remain bullish if it holds. Keep your open order to buy at a lower level as bonds are poised to continue rising, once this weakness is over. Our strategy for this week is to sit back and enjoy the ride. Keep a close eye on the dollar and the stock market as they re both telling the story. Gold's getting closer to its key resistance at $1225, while gold shares are bubbling. A further decline in the US dollar could push gold up above its resistance level. Keep your gold shares. Sell half of AEM to protect profits built (if you haven t already). Stay out of the stock market for now until a clearer picture evolves. Keep an eye on our open orders in bonds and EEM. And follow our guidelines on the charts that follow. Good luck and good trading, Omar Ayales Chief Trading Strategist If it's Wednesday, it must be a GCRU day. 4

5 KET LEADERS 5

6 GOLD JUNE 215 (GCM15) 4/28/215 CLOSE = BROKE ABOVE JAN DOWNTREND JAN HELD AT MID CHANNEL LINE SUPPORT 1225 IS KEY RESISTANCE FEB NOV 1143 IS KEY SUPPORT TURNING BULLISH? N D J F M A LT Call Spread Long at: Stops Bought Dec /17 COMEX gold call spreads for approx $1,3 (Nov-2-13) & Dec /16 gold call spreads for approx. $875 (Jan-8-14) (Jan-14-15), 1232 (Feb-6-15), 125 (Feb-17-15), 1198 (Mar 3-15), 1198 (Mar-4-15), 1155 (Mar-18-15). 2dc below Profit Targets 135 & 142. New Recom Keep your positions. Gold bounced up after testing its mid channel line support now near Gold is approaching its next key resistance at 1225 while Spinner flirts with crossing into bullish territory. Gold must break above 1225 on a 2dc to see renewed strength that could push it to test the Jan highs near 13. On the downside, the mid-channel line support at 1175 is key. As long as gold holds at this level, it'll show strength. Keep in mind that gold shares strength is likely giving gold a boost, as well as the weakening dollar. Keep your positions as long as gold holds above 1143 (its key support). 6

7 SILVER JULY 215 (SIN15) 4/28/215 CLOSE= JAN APPROACHING JAN DOWNTREND & RESISTANCE NOV LT Call Spread Long at: Bought Dec /27 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $1,1 (Nov-2-13) & Dec 215 (23/24 COMEX silver call spreads for approx. $725 (Dec-24-13) (Dec-1-14), (Feb-23-15), 16.1 (Mar-3-15) Long Stop 3dc below Long Profit Target 18+, 2 & 22. NOV/ LOW AREAS ARE KEY SUPPORT AT 15.4 New Recom: Keep your positions. Sell half at 18. THE START OF SOMETHING GOOD N D J F M A Silver bounced up strongly after approaching its rock solid support at Silver held at its Mar uptrend and it s now testing the Jan downtrend as Spinner crosses into bullish territory. If silver breaks above 17 on a 2dc, it could jump up to the Jan highs near However, silver would need to break above that level to show renewed LT strength. Otherwise, downside pressure will remain strong. Keep your positions as long as the main support near 15.4 holds. 7

8 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SEPTEMBER 215 (DXU15) 4/28/215 CLOSE= SLIPPED BELOW BOTTOM SIDE OF CONSOLIDATION BAND APR BEARISH BELOW ZERO D J F M A Bearish Put Spread Stop Profit Target New Recom: Sept 215 DX 94/9 put $5 2dc above & 9 Keep your position. Downside pressure increasing. The US Dollar Index slipped below a sideways consolidation band as Spinner failed to rise above zero showing weakness. A wobbly economic recovery in the US is fueling speculation that the Fed will raise rates at a later time this year, if not next. However, keep in mind that the dollar will remain strong if it holds above the 214 uptrend near 95. On the downside, a break below 95 on a 2dc would trigger a reversal in trend and a decline to the Dec lows near 89 would then be likely. Be quick to take profits on a decline below 95. 8

9 COPPER JULY 215 (HGN15) 4/28/215 CLOSE= AUG NOV A BREAK ABOVE 2.85 IS KEY FOR RENEWED STRENGTH JAN BULLISH! A S O N D J F M A New Recom: Stay out. Copper is rising once again from the Jan uptrend to test its key resistance near A break above this level on a 2dc would signal strength that could push copper to its next resistance near 3. Spinner rising above its MT MA and the zero line showing strength and potential for more upside ST. All signs of a renewed rise in the resource sector as long as copper holds above the Jan uptrend near Strength in copper will give silver a boost. 9

10 LIGHT CRUDE OIL JUNE 215 (CLM15) 4/28/215 CLOSE= 57.6 ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) 4/28/215 CLOSE= 6.66 RESISTING AT TOP SIDE OF SIDEWAYS BAND JAN SUPPORT FEB TOPPY AT OVERBOUGHT J F M A JAN CONSOLIDATING LINE J F M A Bearish Put Spread New Recom: 48/44 Jul 215 Crude put $33. Keep your positions. New Recom Buy at mkt. Place stops at 2dc below 57. Profit targets at 75 and 1. Breakdown? Crude broke below its bearish upside wedge and it's now approaching it s target at the Mar uptrend near 56. Spinner is declining and on the verge of turning bearish. If crude breaks below 56 on a 2dc, it could decline to the bottom side of its 4 mo long sideways band near 48. Downside pressure is likely to continue as the supply outpaces demand. We've added a new 2x inverse ETF (SCO) for crude for those of you who want to short crude, but are not comfortable with option trading. Look to gain on the downside while pressure outweighs upside potential. 1

11 SPDR DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (DIA) 4/28/215 CLOSE= US$ CONTINUES TO RISE... RESISTANCE AT THE HIGHS REMAINS STRONG Shares Transportation Average (^IYT) 4/28/215 CLOSE= US$ REACHED 4+ WK HIGH BUT DOWNSIDE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FEB FEB OCT LOWS ARE KEY 168 ABOVE ZERO BUT SLUGGISH D J F M A CONTINUES TO CURB, RESIST MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD (12, 26, 9) 3 JAN FEB TOPPING NEAR OVERBOUGHT D J F M A D J F M A D J F M A APR NON-CONFIRMATION IN 215 TELLING THE STORY OVERBOUGHT New Recom Stay out. The Dow averages continue to struggle despite several indexes like S&P 5 and the NASDAQ reaching record highs this past week. The Transportations are pulling back from its bullish rise this month as Spinner and MACD are showing signs of a top. The Dow Industrials are bullish above the 214 uptrend, but are also resisting below the Mar high. Remember that the non-confirmation from the Transportation average during 215 is exposing exhaustion that could turn into weakness. However, upside potential will remain high as long as both averages stay above the Dec lows. A break below the Dec and Jan lows would trigger a bearish Dow Theory confirmation that could push the stock market into a deeper correction or a bear market. Stay out for now. 11

12 ADEN GOLD STOCKS ADV/ LINE 4/28/215 CLOSE = 444 HUI GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI) 4/28/215 CLOSE= OCT BOUNCING UP... MINI H&S BOTTOM WITH NECKLINE AT 442, = UPSIDE TARGET AT 446 FORMING 75 DAY MA O N D J F M A APR BROKE ABOVE BULLISH JAN ASCENDING TRIANGLE! NOV N D J F M A BULLISH WITH ROOM TO RISE FURTHER BOTTOMING ABOVE ZERO = BULLISH! MACD (12, 26, 9) BREAKOUT! O N D J F M A MACD (12, 26, 9) TESTING MT MA AFTER BOTTOMING ABOVE ZERO = BULLISH N D J F M A Poised to rise further! HUI broke above its bullish ascending triangle showing impressive strength. HUI is now positioned to rise to its next real resistance at the Jan highs near 21. All of our indicators have turned bullish showing room for more upside. Spinner formed a bottom above zero and broke above its MT MA. MACD is following Spinner's action. The A/D Line broke above its mini H&S bottom showing an upside target at 448 (75 day MA). Spinner for the A/D Line is also turning bullish. This means momentum for gold shares is on the rise. Keep in mind that upside potential will remain strong as long as HUI holds above the Mar uptrend and 25 day MA at 171. On the downside, the Nov uptrend at 16 is key. A break below this level would trigger a shift in trend and momentum. We took some profits on AEM and are holding GDXJ and NUGT. We'll continue to hold our positions for now. 12

13 STOCKS 13

14 ishares Barclays 2+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) 4/28/215 CLOSE= PRESSURE DOWN JAN SEPT ON THE LINE S O N D J F M A Long at: New Recom: (Feb-1-15), (Feb-11-15), 127 (Feb-17-15), (Feb-25-15), 129 (Mar-18-15). Sold at 13 for a small gain. Out. Buy some below 127 and more at 123. Place stops at 2dc below 118. Profit target at 138. TLT broke below ST support at 129 and it s now approaching the Sept uptrend near 126 after failing to rise above the Jan downtrend. Spinner is also resisting below its MT MA showing weakness. On the upside, the Sept uptrend is good support. Keep in mind TLT will show great upside potential as long as it holds at this level. However, TLT's key support remains at the 214 uptrend near 118. Get ready to buy at recommended entry targets. 14

15 Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) 4/28/215 CLOSE= 32.6 CAD$ NEW HIGH SINCE EARLY CH! NOV BULLISH! NOV N D J F M A FEB FORMED A BOTTOM ABOVE ZERO Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) -NYSE (Mar-3-15). Some sold half at 3.5 for a 1% gain! 28.5 (Apr-9-15). Sold Long at: half at for an approximate 11% gain! Stop: Profit Target: 2dc below 29 (adj). 31 (reached!) & 34 (adj). New Recom: Keep your positions. If you didn t sell half at first profit target, sell half now, above 31. Bullish! AEM shot up to a new 8+ wk high today showing impressive strength! AEM surpassed our first profit target and it s approaching the top side of the Dec upchannel near 34. Spinner peeking above its MT MA after bottoming above zero showing upside potential. On the downside, remember that the Dec uptrend is key. Keep the rest of your positions as long as AEM holds at this level or reaches our second profit target. 15

16 MKT VECTORS JR. GOLD MINERS (GDXJ) 4/28/215 CLOSE= US$ 32 JAN REACHING AN 8 WK HIGH TODAY! FORMING A BOTTOM ABOVE ZERO D J F M A Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) Long at: 24 (Apr-8-15), 23.5 (Apr-9-15). Stop: Profit target: New Recom: 2dc below Keep your positions. Sell all at profit target. Picking up slack! Junior gold miners are coming back at a strong pace, and they re poised to outperform seniors. They reached an 8wk high today and are now positioned to rise to the top side of the Mar upchannel near 28 (our profit target). Spinner looking for a bottom above the zero line with room to rise further. We're well positioned as long as GDXJ remains above the Mar uptrend near Keep your positions for now. 16

17 Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT) 4/28/215 CLOSE= US$ JAN 8 WEEK HIGH! PEEKING ABOVE MT MA N D J F M A Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT)-NYSEArca Long at: (Apr-22-15). Stop: Profit Target: 2dc below & 19. New Recom: Keep your positions. If not in, buy below 12. Rising with strength. NUGT continues to rise steadily, showing upside potential and growing momentum. NUGT is now poised to rise to the top side of the Mar upchannel near 15 (our first profit target). Be quick to sell half at our first profit target. 17

18 Shares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) 4/28/215 CLOSE= 44.9 CAD$ SEPT BROKE ABOVE NOV HIGH RESISTANCE NOV LINING FROM OVERBOUGHT, WATCH ZERO S O N D J F M A ishares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) -NYSEArca New Recom: Buy below 43. Place stops at 2dc below Profit targets at 46. Continues to rise with impressive strength as it approaches the Sept highs. Spinner declining from overbought, but sill bullish above zero. We've raised our entry level in case of a dip. Be ready to buy and hold as long as EEM holds above the Dec uptrend. 18

19 OPEN POSITIONS Symbol Trade Update &/or Current Position Status Initial Initial Entry Traders re- Last Stops Target Target (L=Long, S= Entry Date Price bot/ -sold at Closing #1 #2 Short, O= Price Out P= Put C= Call) SHARES TLT Out. Buy some below 127 and more at 123. Place stops at 2dc below 118. Profit target at 138. O AEM Keep your positions. If you didn t sell half at first profit target, sell half now, above 31. L Mar dc below NUGT Keep your positions. If not in, buy below 12. L Apr dc below SCO Buy at mkt. Place stops at 2dc below 57. Profit targets at 75 and 1. O Mar GDXJ Keep your positions. Sell all at profit target. L Apr dc below EEM Buy below 43. Place stops at 2dc below Profit targets at 46. O 44.9 KET LEADERS Gold - GCM15 Keep your positions. L, C Jan , 125, 1198, dc below Crude- CLM15 Keep your positions. P Apr /44 Jul 215 put spread Silver SIK15 Keep your positions. Sell half at 18. L, C Dec , dc below US Dollar DXU15 Keep your position. P Apr /9 Sept 215 put spread dc above COPPER HGH15 Stay out. O

20 Quoting GCRU is permitted provided GCRU name, website address & subscription price are given. All charts in GCRU are daily prices. Fax subscribers please note this week s password to access GCRU daily edition via our website is: (goingwell). Subscribers can obtain free online chart updates for all gold shares in GCRU via: To view Canadian stks please use CA as prefix (ie, to view Agnico Eagle (Toronto) you must use CA:AEM). Note: U should NOT feel our recommended prices are set in concrete. If mkts suddenly feel hot or cold to U, or dramatic news occurs, U can buy or sell, or stop at slightly higher or slightly lower prices. It also hinges on your experience level. Some people can use our prices as guides & know when they can take bigger risks. Spinner: Spinner is an in-house momentum indicator (not always shown on charts). Momentum indicators use the rate of change in price to determine predominant energy flows. Spinner trading signals are generated when the faster timing line crosses above or below the ST Sym/tri Tgt Unch short term symmetrical triangle target unchanged slower confirming line. Upside crosses in the lower range of positive Vol volume territory offer the most reliable signals for longs; downside crosses in Wk week the top range of negative territory for shorts. Avoid trading against Ystdy yesterday the timing line, ie, buying/selling if the timing line is in corrective C close mode (against direction of trade) unless the confirming line is positioning for a new 'confirming cycle'. It's important to always be aware of location, direction & cycling phase of the confirming line. Spinner signals are more effective in trending mkt's than in trading ranges where indicators such as Stochastics & Williams %R should be used. NOTE: payments for GCRU services should be made payable to MAP CUSTOMER SERVICE. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is published weekly. You may sign up for 3-mos at $3, 6-mos at $585, 9-mos at $855 or 12-mos $1,11. gcru@adenforecast.com 1dc 2dc bot CAD$ H&S LOC LT MT NL PF PO Recom RH&S RS ABBREVIATIONS 1-day close (the share price must close above or below the indicated price level, before our recommendation is activated) 2-day close (consecutive) bought Canadian dollar head & shoulder line on close long term medium term neckline portfolio price objective recommended reverse head & shoulder relative strength - DISCLAIMER - Due to the electronic nature of s, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us can accept no responsibility or liability as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Whilst efforts are made to safeguard messages and attachments, Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Information in Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us is for general information only & is not intended to be relied upon by individual readers in making specific investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decisions. Gold (& mkts) Charts R Us do not guarantee or assure that readers will make money, or accept liability for any loss suffered by readers as a result of any such decision. Futures and share trading involves risk and is not for all investors. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results. Trading involves risk and should be pursued with risk capital only! 2