Morning Trading Comments

Transcription

1 Tuesday, September 11, Morning Trading Comments SUMMARY OF TRADING VIEWS Start of a technical reaction to the oversold signals yesterday. US & European indices should try to extend yesterday s move in the near term, or at least hold above last week s lows. However, all we can expect on Euro STOXX 50 index at this stage if a relief rally following last week s breakdown below an important support zone at 3350 on cash index. CROSS ASSET EVENTS European Fund Managers are reloading Value Stocks As discussed in yesterday s Weekly Sectors Roadmap report, we started seeing renewed interest for Value Stocks last week as fund managers unloaded outperforming growth stocks. As you can see on the chart, the ratio between European Value & Growth stocks hit a key support line last week and should try to initiate a technical bounce in the near term. As the ratio hit new multi-year lows a few days ago, I wouldn t call for the start of a major trend reversal here but this suggests that Value stocks should outperform in the near term, or at least perform in line with the market. Technical Analysis Cyril BAUDRILLART, CFTe cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com

2 Tuesday, September 11, DETAILED TRADING OUTLOOK ON MAIN INDICES S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURE (ESU8) RESISTANCES 2893 / 2900 / 2905 SUPPORTS / 2860 / 2847 Comments Start of a technical bounce yesterday after 4 consecutive bearish sessions. PREFERRED CASE for next days Start of a technical bounce yesterday. The index may go a bit higher in the near term, possibly 2893 but should encounter resistance around 2900 in the event of further rise beyond this level. EURO STOXX 50 FUTURE (VGU8) RESISTANCES 3345 / 3368 / 3390 SUPPORTS 3300 / 3273 / 3258 Comments Technical bounce after 7 consecutive bearish sessions. PREFERRED CASE for next days First Fibonacci resistance easily reached at 3317 yesterday. The index should try to go higher in the near term, possibly back to the 3350 area or at least hold above last week s low (3273).

3 Tuesday, September 11, DAX 30 FUTURE (GXU8) RESISTANCES / / SUPPORTS / / Comments Start of a technical bounce. PREFERRED CASE for next days almost reached yesterday. I favour a continuation of yesterday s relief rally. Watch the as an important support zone for next few days. DAILY SCREENING OF EUROPEAN EQUITIES (STOXX 600) TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS Upside breakouts Leonardo, RPC Group, Fortum Downside breakouts - TRADING BUY CONTRARIAN TRADING IDEAS Near 200-day MAs Ackermans & van Haaren, InterContinental Hotels Group Perfected TD setup 9 Buy Henkel AG & Co, John Wood Group Oversold Dassault Systemes, Derwent London, Luxottica Group, Tesco TRADING SELL Perfected TD setup 9 Sell - Overbought - See all charts in next pages

4 Tuesday, September 11, TREND FOLLOWING IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Upside breakouts LDO IM Equity : Leonardo SpA RPC LN Equity : RPC Group PLC FORTUM FH Equity : Fortum OYJ

5 Tuesday, September 11, CONTRARIAN TRADING BUY IDEAS WITHIN STOXX 600 INDEX Daily Perfected Setup 9 Buy signals HEN3 GY Equity : Henkel AG & Co KGaA WG/ LN Equity : John Wood Group PLC

6 Tuesday, September 11, Stocks oversold on a daily basis DSY FP Equity : Dassault Systemes SE DLN LN Equity : Derwent London PLC LUX IM Equity : Luxottica Group SpA TSCO LN Equity : Tesco PLC

7 Tuesday, September 11, Stocks back on 200-day MA ACKB BB Equity : Ackermans & van Haaren NV IHG LN Equity : InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

8 Tuesday, September 11, Technical Analysis Equity Sales Cyril BAUDRILLART Cyril.baudrillart@tradition.com Methodology All technical indicators used in this publication are based on historical prices broadcasted by Bloomberg. Several types of indicators are used in this report such as Bollinger Bands, Oscillators (RSI, MACD), Point & Figure charts, Ichimoku, Keltner Bands and other technical analysis tools. More details on how to interpret and use these tools are available upon request. Market timing indicators developed by Tom DeMark are also used in this report. The DeMark Indicators are a registered trademark of DeMark Analytics, LLC. Please note that all the content shown are my personal views and based on my own interpretation of the DeMark Indicators using the DeMark Service for Bloomberg. Please visit for more information. Disclaimer Any investments or securities referred to in communications between us ( Investments ) may involve significant risks and not necessarily be suitable for all investors. Such risk may involve, without limitation, market risk, high volatility, credit and default risk, illiquidity, currency risk and interest rate risk. There can be no assurance that the Investments will achieve their investment objective and as a consequence an investor may in certain circumstances lose their entire investment. Any potential investor should ensure they understand all of the risks associated with these Investments, including any legal, tax, accounting and other business considerations. Investors are deemed to have sufficient knowledge, experience and access to appropriate professional advice to assess the suitability and risks of an investment in these Investments. TFD will not be liable whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of the information relating to the Investments ( Information ) or any omission by TFD in respect of such Investments. While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of Information, including any valuations, opinions or estimates, no representation or warranty is made as to its validity, timeliness, completeness, accuracy or reliability and it should not be relied upon as such. All Information is subject to change without notice. In producing all Information, TFD is not acting in any capacity whatsoever as a financial adviser or fiduciary to potential investors. Potential investors must consult with their own legal, regulatory, tax, business, investment, financial and accounting advisors as deemed necessary. No provision of information regarding Investments shall constitute an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This document is directed at Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not for distribution to nor should it be relied upon by Retail Clients as defined by the FCA. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to any applicable law or regulation. The investments referred to in this document are not at any time to be offered, sold, resold or delivered, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to US persons. This document may not be distributed in the United States. Please note that, for business or compliance reasons, we may monitor and read s sent or received using our servers or equipment. TFD hereby reserves all rights in the Information and you may not disseminate the Information without prior approval.