US markets are closed on 9/7/15 for the US Labor Day holiday

Transcription

1 Daily Commentary Seattle Technical Advisors.com Ed Carlson, CMT US markets are closed on 9/7/15 for the US Labor Day holiday Developed Markets US Equities were mixed on Thurs; SPX +2.27, DJIA , and NASDAQ It is beginning to look as if the Hybrid forecast for a low found, not the ultimate low, but Tuesday s test of that low although last week s low was certainly within the margin of error of the Middle Section forecasts. Price action since last week s lows is starting to look like a pennant. Pennants are continuation patterns and in this case it would be a continuation of the previous decline. If so, that would make any high near Sept 11 not worth trying to trade on the long side. If this is a pennant, we ll certainly know it before Sept 11. Depending on at what price the lower trendline of the pattern is broken, the pennant could easily measure a minimum decline to 1,700. Stay bearish until last Friday s high at 1,989 is broken. Energy (OSX) may be setting up for a nice rally. A bullish head-and-shoulders pattern will be triggered with a breakout above the neckline at It measures a minimum move to /4/2015 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 1

2 EuroStoxx 50 gained 2.09% to close at 3,272 on the 13-dma and the July low and January breakout level. Expect resistance here; confirmed sell-mode (sell the rips). Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 0.39% to close at Look for a cycle high near Sept 14 (same as NASDAQ). The minimum expected rally is to the 38.2% retracement at If the dollar turns down into its expected cycle low in mid-sept, EEM should be able to reach higher. 9/4/2015 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 2

3 Shanghai Composite (SSEC) is closed for observance of the end of WWII. Markets will re-open on Monday. Nikkei (NKX) has taken a beating this week, down 4.98% to close at 18,182 on Thursday. NKX is down 12.26% over the last 4 weeks. Confirmed sell-mode but a positive divergence set up in RSI just as the index has become oversold makes me expect a tradable rally. US Treasuries TNX pulled back 1.14% to close at after testing the 30-dma for the sixth day in a row. These tests are confirming the significance of the moving average and, if a breakout above comes, it should be considered significant. A cycle high is due in the first half of Sept. 9/4/2015 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 3

4 Currencies US Dollar gained 0.60% to close at and printed a doji-star candlestick (warns of a possible reversal) after testing its 34-dma; confirmed sell-mode (sell the rips!). A 40wk cycle low is due in mid- Sept. Euro lost 1.09% to close at and still above its 144-dma; confirmed buy-mode (buy the dips). Look for a high at the same time the dollar makes its cycle low in mid-sept. Resistance is near /4/2015 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 4

5 Commodities Crude Oil was pushed higher by expectations for further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank, which could lift energy demand. It gained $0.50/bbl. to close at $46.75 after testing the 13-dma on Wed; confirmed buy-mode. Oil A short-term cycle low is due this Friday. The Feb highs and 200-dma converge on so expect resistance near there. Gold fell $8.80 to close at $1, and near the late August low (1,122). That low and the current one see 3-day RSI staying above 20; bullish. However, cycles forecast a decline into the second week of Sept. Perhaps the highly correlated Aussie dollar (lower) will find a low then as well. 9/4/2015 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 5

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