Daily Commentary. Seattle Technical Advisors.com. Developed Markets

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1 Daily Commentary Seattle Technical Advisors.com Ed Carlson, CMT Developed Markets US Equities rallied again on Wednesday; SPX +8.94, DJIA , but NASDAQ With one more day in the month, Wall St. has every incentive to keep markets aloft to maximize fees charged at the end of the quarter (end of quarter window-dressing). A Hybrid Lindsay forecast points to a high near 3/29/16 but the next micro-cycle high isn t due until next Tuesday. It could come early or the Hybrid forecast could be late. This Friday, Apr 1, is 221 days from the low on Aug 24 (Lindsay s 224-day interval was a time window of days. This interval often marks turns in the market). Last Friday s low at 2,022 is the pivotal low to keep our eyes on. A break of that level will signal that our top is in place. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 1

2 Cyclicals Semiconductors (SOX) are up 2.20% for the week closing at Semis have thrice been saved by support near the 50% retracement of the 2011 rally. This has allowed SOX to build a massive, multi-year topping formation which will be triggered by a decline below 550. If triggered, the formation measures a minimum decline to below 350. S&P Energy topped on its annual cycle two weeks ago. The leg from Aug. to Nov. equaled the Jan-Mar rally. Relative performance (lower) is breaking the 2016 trendline; bearish. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 2

3 EuroStoxx 50 rallied 1.40% further above support at 2,921 to close at 2,968. Resistance is expected between here and 3,050. The bigger trend still appears to be downward. Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) rose 1.03% to close at above the 200-dma (lower) but below resistance at Emerging markets currencies (center) have reached resistance. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 3

4 Shanghai Composite (SSEC) rose 2.77% to close at 3,000 near the top of the 2016 trading range but well below its 200-dma (3,466). 3-day RSI has not been below 20 since Feb. 29; bullish. The positively correlated Baltic Dry index (lower) broke to historic lows in February. US Treasuries TNX gained 0.88% to close at after Tuesday s 3% drop. Importantly, TNX remains below the 30- dma. Given the correlation between TNX and equities (upper), this major break down should be of concern to the bulls. The smartest guys on Wall Street are on the bond desks. Anon. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 4

5 Currencies US Dollar fell 0.36% closing at DXY has got to hold this month s low at to remain bullish. A bullish divergence in the daily trend work (MACD) can be seen on the daily chart and the daily Coppock did not confirm last week s low. A rising Dollar is also key to the bearish call on equities. Euro gained 0.34% and closed at peeking over the top of the resistance zone. BWI is falling in non-confirmation of the three-day rally. The Coppock is high enough to look for a top in the currency but the Euro may be intent upon testing resistance at 1.15 before turning down. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 5

6 Commodities Crude Oil gave up $1.14/bbl. closing on support at and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick. BWI has turned up to confirm the decline. Gold gave back $8.70 to close at 1, challenging support at 1,230. BWI (lower) is confirming the March decline. Short-term bearish, longer term I continue to look for higher highs. It s time to remember that gold sees a seasonal low sometime in June or July. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 6

7 Seattle Technical Advisors website, PO Box 2415, North Bend, WA 98045, is published as an informational service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling, and holding various securities. However, the publishers of Seattle Technical Advisors are not investment advisers and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. ANY REDISTRIBUTION of Seattle Technical Advisors Market Update without the written consent of the publishers of Seattle Technical Advisors is PROHIBITED. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Copying and/or electronic transmission of the Seattle Technical Advisors website or content is a violation of international copyright law. Information provided by Seattle Technical Advisors is expressed in good faith but is not guaranteed. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 7