19 January 2019 Volume 12, Issue 4

Transcription

1 19 January 2019 Volume 12, Issue 4 Summary for week of 21 January 2019 Stocks could rally early but likely to retrace by second half Dollar likely to push higher, especially in first half Crude oil may extend gains this week Gold could retest resistance early but second half looks weaker US Stocks Stocks moved higher for a fourth straight week on more dovish comments from the Fed and signs of progress for a US-China trade deal. The Dow added 3% on the week to 24,706 while the S&P 500 finished at This bullish outcome was unexpected as I thought the late week could have been more negative. As was the case in the previous week, the bearish-looking alignments such as the Full Moon/lunar eclipse are having little effect. Could this be a V-shaped bottom that sees the market move higher to retest its all-time high at 2940? Despite the recent strength, I would not say that scenario is probable given the series of bearish planetary alignments in Q2 and Q3. While we could see further upside here in Q1, I think bears are still owed one or two significant pullbacks in the near term that should be large enough to prevent higher highs. But it is not difficult to see how we could get more upside in Q1 if there is a US- China deal and the Fed continues to talk down the possibility of higher rates.

2 Although my expectations were incorrect for some kind of pullback last week, I do think there will be a pullback soon. Given the misfire last week, it is possible it may not occur this week either. The short term aspects are not playing out as expected. And yet the medium term influences do strongly indicate some kind of pullback between mid-january and mid-february. Another move higher is likely going into March but there may not be enough time or bullish energy available to challenge previous highs or perhaps even the upper end of the trading range from And with the fairly high probability of more downside in Q2 and Q3, there is an increasing likelihood of a retest of 2340 by June at the latest and, more likely, lower lows (2100?) by the summer. This bounce has been quite strong, however, as we have seen a short squeeze above The technical situation still suggests a pullback is likely soon to relieve the overbought condition. The SPX is now near the upper end of the resistance area above How far can this bounce go before reversing? It is possible it could move all the way up to the 200 DMA at 2741 although that could be a stretch without any preceding pullback. The next obvious resistance level would be 2700 which is the location of the falling trend line off the early October high. And it is not inconceivable it could reverse immediately from here (2670). When we do get a pullback, the next support level would likely be at 2600 where the SPX had previously stalled on the way up. However, the breakdown of the current rising wedge pattern (support = 2650) could see a sharp move lower that may not stop at If we get a daily close below 2600 or so, then we could see a second leg down to perhaps Anything below that would likely entail a retest of 2340 (i.e ). While the SPX and Dow have yet to break above their falling trend lines, the NDX and Russell 2000 both popped above it after Friday s gain. While this is noteworthy for their relative bullishness, these indexes have still yet to break the bearish pattern of lower highs. The NDX would need a close above its 200 DMA at 7030 to break that pattern and move above its previous interim high from December 3. The weekly Dow chart is still looking pretty strong as it approaches its falling trend line resistance at 25,250. In the event of a pullback, bulls will likely try to re-enter longs at 23,500 (the old lows) or 24,000. Bond yields rose again last week on hopes that a trade deal with China would spur more growth. As long as 10-year yields stay above the previous low of 2.5% and there is no inversion with the 2-year, the bond outlook will be generally supportive of stocks. Of course, a sharp move higher towards its previous high of 3.25% would be bad news as the Fed would have no choice but to hike again.

3 This week is shortened for Monday s MLK holiday closing. Tuesday s Venus-Jupiter conjunction has some bullish potential so there is a decent chance for at least intraday upside. The Mercury-Lunar Node conjunction is not positive, however, so that could indicate some possibility of a reversal. But overall I would still lean towards a bullish start to the week. But the odds for some selling will grow after Tuesday as Mercury forms a minor alignment with Saturn and Neptune. This doesn t look too bearish but it will be an indication of the potential strength of the bears in the near term. The late week leans a bit bearish, although Friday looks more bearish than Thursday. Again, I would not say the short term aspects look strongly or clearly bearish but there is an absence of bullish influences there at least so that could give the bears a decent shot. Overall, I would keep an open mind about this week. If Tuesday is higher as I expect, it is possible we may not see a significant pullback yet. But if Tuesday s rally fizzles then a red weekly candle is more likely. Next week (Jan 28-Feb 1) looks mixed and is harder to call. The medium term influences will still favor the bears but the short term aspects could see some gains early in the week on the Sun-Mercury conjunction. After Wednesday s Moon-Jupiter conjunction, there is a better opportunity for bears as the Sun- Mercury conjunction aligns with Saturn and Neptune. Depending on how large any early week gains may be, it is possible this will be a negative week overall. And yet I would be reluctant to give that negative outcome a high probability just in case the early week is very bullish. The following week (Feb 4-8) leans bearish as the Sun aligns with Saturn and Neptune early in the week. The late week is also bearish as Mars squares the Lunar Nodes. This is a better bet for a negative week. The pullback is likely to bottom sometime in mid-february after which another leg higher is likely going into March. A retest of 2340 is still possible in February although I would lean towards a higher low at this point (e.g. 2500? 2600?). If March is bullish from the approach of the Jupiter retrograde station, then a move towards 2800 is worth considering. It is difficult to forecast levels but the rebound off of any low made in February looks pretty strong. I would expect any rebound to end in late March or in early April. After that, stocks are more likely to trend lower as Saturn conjoins the South Lunar Node and Pluto for the next several months. May-June looks particularly bearish so we could easily see lower lows (2100?) by Q3. Technical Trends Astrological Indicators Target Range

4 Short term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) SPX (1 week ending Jan 25) Medium term trend is DOWN bearish (confirming) SPX (1 month ending Feb 25) Long term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) SPX (1 year ending Jan 2020) Indian Stocks Stocks pushed higher last week on positive global cues and hopes that the interim budget will not contain any surprises. The Sensex rose by 1% on the week to 36,386 while the Nifty finished at 10,906. This bullish outcome was unexpected as I thought the midweek might have produced more downside. This view was incorrect as the market largely went sideways after Tuesday s solid gain. Global markets are seeing the glass half-full these days as Fed members continued to issue dovish comments last week with a view to stabilize sentiment. And there is new optimism regarding the US-China trade war as China has offered to reduce its trade deficit by buying more US goods. If a deal gets done, it will likely spark a new round of buying of Indian stocks although it may only have a brief effect. The interest rate scenario is more complex perhaps as the Fed still has to react to new data, its dovish jaw-boning notwithstanding. For the moment, US data is still fairly strong and does not warrant significant easing.

5 The planetary outlook still gives bears the edge in the near term. Despite last week s misfire, I still expect some downside to manifest over the next two to three weeks. Generally, I think the mid-january to mid-february period has a good chance of seeing some kind of pullback, either during a single week or perhaps over a two week period. The Jupiter-Neptune alignment has helped to boost the market mood thus far. But now that Jupiter is moving past that alignment, bearish Saturn is due to quickly follow as it aspects Neptune this week and next. Early February also carries additional downside risk due to the alignment of Mars with Rahu, Uranus and Pluto. Further upside is therefore a less likely outcome although a more bullish scenario would be a range bound market until mid-february. I tend to think that is less likely as there is a greater likelihood of some downside until then, however. The technical picture remains uncertain. The current rebound is encountering significant resistance at 11,000. This is still fairly normal for a medium term bullish trend given the series of higher lows we have seen in December and January. The resulting ascending triangle has a bullish bias and argues for an eventual breakout above 11,000 with an upside target of 11,600. The convergence of the moving averages underlines the importance of current levels. For now, price is trading above the convergence level of 10,700-10,800. Key support has been provided by the 50 DMA as even intraday moves below that line have been faithfully bought. A close below the 50 DMA could change things up, however, as some investors would see it as a signal of weakness. The weekly Sensex chart is looking more bullish after last week s white candle. It was the highest weekly close since September and hints at a possible breakout higher into the upper Bollinger band zone. Stochastics is now above the 80 line, however, so there is greater risk of some kind of pullback. If we do see a pullback, there is a risk of it morphing into a second leg down to the 30,000 area and the 200 WMA. This is a measured move downside target based on the size of the initial decline from the August high to the October low. For the moment, this isn t a likely technical scenario but it becomes more possible with a weekly close below 35,000. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank posted a small gain last week as it tested horizontal resistance once again. The ascending triangle is bullish and argues for an eventual breakout above Infosys also enjoyed a bullish move last week as it is now retesting its Aug-Sep highs. The inverted head and shoulders pattern is bullish and has an upside target of 880. In the event of a pullback, key support is at 710.

6 This week looks mixed. The early week could see the bulls try to push above resistance given the Venus-Jupiter conjunction on Monday and Tuesday. But the risk of declines will increase as the week progresses as Mercury aligns with Saturn and Neptune on Wednesday. Friday also looks somewhat bearish as the Moon is aspected by Saturn. These bearish aspects are not strongly or clearly bearish, however, so I would not expect too much downside. And if the early week turns out to be bullish, then it is also possible stocks may not move too far overall this week. That said, I would cautiously keep a bearish bias here at the end of January and into February, even if I would not necessarily expect significant selling just yet. The early week alignments do suggest that another test of resistance at 11,000 is more likely than not. I would not preclude the possibility of a brief breakout above 11,000 either. Next week (Jan 28-Feb 1) also looks mixed but with a bearish bias. Monday leans bearish as the Moon is aspected by Mars, especially in the afternoon. Gains are more likely to occur Tuesday and Wednesday as the Sun conjoins Mercury. However, the late week leans bearish again as Mercury aligns with Saturn and Mars squares Pluto. Overall, this week has a greater likelihood of a negative outcome than the previous week. The following week (Feb 4-8) is similarly mixed although the risk of downside is still present. The first half of the week should see some upside on the Sun- Jupiter alignment but the late week looks bearish. It is possible we could get another positive week but the Mars-Rahu-Uranus alignment from Feb 7-12 is likely to bring some downside. This will likely keep bulls on the defensive. Another leg higher is likely starting sometime in late February and continuing through March and into April. A retest of the ATH at 11,760 is possible although a lot will depend on how deep a pullback we get in late January and early February. A major correction is likely to begin in April or May and continue through June as Saturn conjoins Ketu and Pluto. After a bounce in July, another leg lower is likely in Aug-Sep as Saturn station direct. It is very possible we could see the Nifty at 9000 and 8300 is also quite possible. Technical Trends Astrological Indicators Target Range

7 Short term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) 10,700-11,000 (1 week ending 25 Jan) Medium term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) 10,000-10,400 (1 month ending 25 Feb) Long term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) 9,000-10,000 (1 year ending Jan 2020) Currencies The Dollar gained ground last week on hopes for a trade deal with China. The USDX finished near 96 while the Euro slipped below 1.14 once again. This bullish outcome was in keeping with expectations as I thought the greenback would likely rise with a series of Jupiter alignments. The bounce was somewhat predictable from a technical perspective given the test of the 200 DMA at The Dollar is still in a longer term up trend and is following a gently rising channel characterized by higher lows and higher highs. The measured move upside target now would be assuming we see a move above resistance at The weekly Euro chart is still stuck in a narrow trading range although it may be finding support at the 200 WMA. A close below the 200 WMA will extend the gradual decline in the Euro while a close above 1.15 should spark a breakout. While the chart still seems vulnerable, at least one should acknowledge that it may be forming a durable base here from which higher prices are more likely down the road.

8 This week should see the Dollar push higher again, especially in the early week. The Venus-Jupiter conjunction takes place on Tuesday and has the potential for a significant one-day gain. I would be less bullish about the rest of the week, however, as some profit taking seems likely on one or two days. While I would remain bullish for the week, it is possible the net gain may be modest. A lower high (97?) therefore seems to be the more likely outcome here. Next week (Jan 28-Feb 1) may still lean bullish but probably less so. Monday to Wednesday would seem to be more bullish than the rest of the week. Perhaps there could be enough optimism to retest the high at I would still keep a bullish bias going into early February, although bulls should be cautious. By March, I would expect the Dollar to weaken and reverse lower. A larger decline is likely by April and May. This pullback is likely to again test the 200 DMA. I think there is a real chance for a lower low sometime in Q2 which takes out the previous low at Another rally is likely to begin in May and extend through most of the summer. A longer correction should begin in Q4 and extend well into Technical Trends (Dollar) Astrological Indicators Target Range Short term trend is DOWN bullish (disconfirming) (1 week ending Jan 25) Medium term trend is UP bullish (confirming) (1 month ending Feb 25) Long term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) (1 year ending Jan 2020)

9 Crude oil Crude oil added to its recent rally last week on hopes for a US-China trade deal. WTI gained more than 4% to $54 while Brent finished the week at $ This bullish outcome was in line with expectations as I thought the early week bearishness would likely reverse as the Jupiter influence asserted itself. The technicals remain iffy although Friday s gain at least pushed above the previous high. With the move above the 50 DMA, bulls will want to see a few more days above $51.75 (WTI) in order to feel more confident that the low is in. Of course, a retest of the low is still possible and even probable, although for now the bulls are chipping away at key overhead resistance. Support is now from the rising trend line near $52 so any break below that level could spark a rush to the exits. $50 may well be make or break support for WTI as any move below that level would greatly increase the odds of a retest of $42. The weekly Brent chart looks a bit more bullish for the medium term. Yes, a retest of the December low is still very possible and prices may reverse lower very soon here as resistance at $65 is tested this week. But it is also possible we could see this bounce go all the way to $70-72 and the 50 WMA. This would amount to a 50% retracement from the high. It is worth remembering that the December low of $50 was still a higher low relative to the lows in 2016 and From a longer term perspective, it is possible that crude will rally once again and put in a higher high eventually. This week could see more upside, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. After Monday s holiday closing in the US, the Venus-Jupiter conjunction should push prices higher for at least one day. While the rest of the week may be less bullish, I do not think it is particularly bearish either. I would think the chances are fairly good for a weekly gain, although the upside may be modest. Next week (Jan 28-Feb 1) also leans bullish as the Sun conjoins Mercury. Monday may be bearish, however, but the midweek looks fairly positive so any dips may well be bought during this week. Friday looks quite bearish, however, on the Mars-Pluto alignment. The following week (Feb 4-8) may be choppy with some gains likely early in the week but weakness prevalent later in the week. While further upside is very possible here, bulls should practice caution. By mid-february, the planets look more bearish for crude so there is

10 likely to be a significant retracement. While March looks neutral to bearish, another rally is likely in April, May and into June. A retest of the 2018 high is possible although it may fall short of that level. The summer looks more bearish, however, as the conjunction of Saturn and Pluto is likely to coincide with some significant downside. Technical Trends Astrological Indicators Target Range (WTI) Short term trend is UP bullish (confirming) $53-59 (1 week ending 25 Jan) Medium term trend is DOWN bullish (disconfirming) $52-60 (1 month ending 25 Feb) Long term trend is DOWN bullish (disconfirming) $50-70 (1 year ending Jan 2020)

11 Gold Gold slipped last week on Dollar strength and prospects for a trade deal between US and China. Gold fell less than 1% on the week to This bearish outcome was in line with expectations as I thought the Sun-Lunar Node conjunction would likely coincide with some selling. However, the decline was more modest than expected as support at 1280 held on Friday. The technical picture is still generally bullish in the medium term. Some consolidation under key resistance (1300) is to be expected and Friday s close was very close to the middle Bollinger band (20 DMA). This was fairly bullish is also acting as horizontal support so it is important that it holds this week. If not, then gold will be subject to a deeper retracement, possibly to convergence of the 50 and 200 DMA near This is actually a golden cross (!) so even if there is a deeper decline to 1250, the golden cross argues more positively for gold going forward. Buyers are therefore more likely to enter the market near that support level in the hope of riding the rally to a higher high. Gold only becomes bearish if there is a close below The indicators are leaning bearish as MACD is in a bearish crossover and stochastics have broken the 80 line and may well be headed for the 20 line. This may occur if there is a pullback to, say, This week could see the bulls try another test of resistance at After Monday s US holiday closing, Tuesday s Venus-Jupiter conjunction could be bullish. I would be reluctant to say this is a high probability bullish alignment but bears should practice caution in the event that support does not break at The late week looks more bearish as the Moon is aspected by Saturn on Friday. Overall, the week is hard to call. Next week (Jan 28-Feb 1) looks bullish to start as the Sun conjoins Mercury. Even if Monday is bearish on the Moon-Mars alignment, I would still think gold will rise on Tuesday and Wednesday. The late week looks less positive, however, so I would not rule out a negative week overall here. The following week (Feb 4-8) offers the bulls more hope as Mercury and the Sun align with Jupiter in the first half of the week. If gold is testing support, it is more likely to bounce here. I m uncertain if there is enough positive energy to fuel a breakout higher above resistance (1300?), however. But early February does look more bullish. Mid-February should see a pullback as Mars aligns with the Lunar Nodes. More

12 upside is likely in late February and March, however. Depending on how deep the February retracement is, it is possible we could see gold make a higher high in March and early April. It is quite possible gold will continue to rally through May although I think by June it may begin to reverse lower. I am reluctant to speculate on any possible top levels in Q2, but it may well be a return to its previous range of The summer looks very bearish and will likely negate most of the preceding rally. Gold could bottom in Q4 and then begin a more sustainable rally for Technical Trends Astrological Indicators Target Range Short term trend is DOWN bullish (disconfirming) (1 week ending Jan 25) Medium term trend is UP bearish (disconfirming) (1 month ending Feb 25) Long term trend is DOWN bullish (disconfirming) (1 year ending Jan 2020) Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. The MVA Investor Newsletter does not make recommendations for buying or selling any securities. Any losses that may result from trading are therefore the result of your own decisions. Financial astrology is best used in conjunction with other investment approaches. Before investing, please consult with a professional financial advisor Christopher Kevill