FUNDAMENTAL MARKET COMMENTARY. Market Research Department

Transcription

1 FUNDAMENTAL MARKET COMMENTARY Market Research Department Monday, December 10, 2018

2 Would a Brexit yes vote in UK parliament give markets hope after a tough week? The release of US labor market data on Friday showed growth in the number of American jobs by about 155,000, which was less than the expected 200,000 jobs but kept the unemployment rate unchanged at a 3.7% reading. Despite that, the end of the trading week witnessed a drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 558 points, a weekly decline of about 4%, while the S&P 500 Index dropped by 4.60%. The announcement of OPEC+ to reduce production of Russia's share by about 1.2 million barrels per day resulted in a quick reaction to the price of West Texas crude oil, whose price rise erased earlier losses to instead record a weekly gain of 2.78%, with Brent crude the best performer with a weekly increase of 3.2%. Since the recent global financial crisis, i.e. the Great Recession, central banks globally have been forced to make concessions in various forms, from lowering interest rates to zero levels or even to negative levels at times, and to inject liquidity into the banking system through quantitative easing programs. And since then central bankers have been unable to get out of that deep hole. In early 2010, the markets were hit with the Italian debt crisis, with the Greek crisis following thereafter. And after the beginning of the stability of the old European continent, we were concerned about the slowdown of the Chinese economy. The period from 2014 to 2016 resulted in increased volatility in the markets, and the indices of the global stock markets witnessed sharp price declines. The middle of 2016 was the British exit referendum from the European Union, the results of which increased the complexity. The most important event to be watched this week is the British Parliament's vote on the Brexit agreement, which has seen an upsurge in opposition despite British Prime Minister Theresa May's insistence that she can get approval by rallying parliamentarians. In the Council of Ministers however, reports from the Guardian suggest that at a time of growing voices against the agreement, an approval would result in the United Kingdom moving forward into an unknown future.

3 Performance of major currency pairs on multiple time frames Perf. EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD 1 Day Change % 0.02% -0.44% 0.05% -0.23% -0.44% -0.50% -0.12% 1 Week Change % 0.54% -0.20% -0.65% -0.84% 0.20% -1.59% -0.17% 1 Month Change % 0.12% -2.56% -1.17% -1.55% 1.29% -0.79% 1.69% 3 Month Change % -1.86% -2.30% 1.45% 1.58% 1.19% 1.19% 5.23% 6 Month Change % -3.31% -5.10% 2.91% 0.54% 3.06% -5.26% -2.35% 1 Year Change % -3.30% -4.95% -0.67% -0.25% 3.71% -4.06% 0.41% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% 1 Day Change % 1 Week Change % 1 Month Change % 3 Month Change % 6 Month Change % 1 Year Change %

4 Interest rate Jobless rate Core Inflation rate GDP QoQ GDP YoY Fundamental Market Commentary Monday, December 10, 2018 Market Research Dept. Economic Indicators Snapshot Monday, December 9, 2018 : United States Euro Area United Kingdom Japan 3.00% 3.5% 0.6%

5 High Impact Economic Calendar: From the 8 th of December to the 14 th of December 2018 (1) : Start Country Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Actual Prefix Unit Prior Revised SmartEstimate Predicted Surprise Date 8 Dec China (Mainland) Exports YY Nov Percent Dec China (Mainland) Imports YY Nov Percent Dec China (Mainland) Trade Balance USD Nov Bln USD Dec China (Mainland) PPI YY Nov Percent Dec China (Mainland) CPI YY Nov Percent Dec Japan Current Account NSA JPY Oct Bln JPY Dec Japan GDP Rev QQ Annualised Q Percent Dec Japan GDP Revised QQ Q Percent Dec Japan GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ Q Percent Dec Australia Housing Finance Oct Percent Dec United Kingdom GDP Est 3M/3M Oct Percent Dec United Kingdom GDP Estimate MM Oct Percent Dec United Kingdom GDP Estimate YY Oct Percent Dec United Kingdom Manufacturing Output MM Oct Percent Dec Canada House Starts, Annualized Nov Thou No. of Dec China (Mainland) M2 Money Supply YY Nov Percent Dec China (Mainland) New Yuan Loans Nov Bln CNY Dec United Kingdom Claimant Count Unem Chng Nov 2018 Thou Person Dec United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate Oct Percent Dec Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Dec Balance Dec Germany ZEW Current Conditions Dec Balance Dec Japan Corp Goods Price MM Nov Percent Dec Japan Corp Goods Price YY Nov Percent Dec Japan Machinery Orders MM Oct Percent Dec Japan Machinery Orders YY Oct Percent Dec United States CPI MM, SA Nov Percent Dec Germany HICP Final YY Nov Percent Dec Switzerland 3M Target LIBOR Rate Q Percent Dec Norway Key Policy Rate 13 Dec 0.75 Percent Dec Euro Zone ECB Refinancing Rate Dec Percent Dec United States Initial Jobless Claims W 08 Dec 227 Thou Person Dec Japan Tankan Big Mf Idx Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan All Big Capex Est Q Percent Dec Japan Tankan Small Mf Idx Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI Q Diff.Idx Dec Japan Tankan All Sm Capex Est Q Percent Dec Japan Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Dec 2018 Diff.Idx Dec China (Mainland) Urban investment (ytd)yy Nov Percent

6 Start Date Country Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Actual Prefix Unit Prior Revised SmartEstimate Predicted Surprise 14 Dec China (Mainland) Industrial Output YY Nov Percent Dec China (Mainland) Retail Sales YY Nov Percent Dec Euro Zone Markit Mfg Flash PMI Dec Diff.Idx Dec Euro Zone Markit Serv Flash PMI Dec Diff.Idx Dec Euro Zone Markit Comp Flash PMI Dec Diff.Idx Dec France Markit Mfg Flash PMI Dec Diff.Idx Dec Germany Markit Mfg Flash PMI Dec Diff.Idx Dec United States Retail Sales MM Nov Percent Dec United States Industrial Production MM Nov Percent Central Banks Interest Rates Decision Expectations (1) : Country Central Bank Policy Rate Prior Rate Date Last Changed Next Meeting Date Reuters Poll Poll Reference Date US US Federal Reserve System Sep Dec-2018 EZ EZ European Central Bank (Refinancing Rate) European Central Bank (Deposit Rate) Mar Dec Dec Oct Dec Dec-2018 CA Bank of Canada Oct Jan Dec-2018 GB Bank of England Aug Dec-2018 JP Bank of Japan Feb Dec-2018 CH Swiss National Bank Dec Dec-2018 AU Reserve Bank of Australia Aug Jan Nov-2018 CZ Czech National Bank Nov Dec-2018 IN Reserve Bank of India Dec Feb Nov-2018 KR Bank of Korea Nov Jan Nov-2018 MX Banco de Mexico Dec Dec-2018 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Nov Feb Nov-2018 NO Norges Bank Sep Dec Dec-2018 RU Central Bank of Russia Sep Dec Nov-2018 ZA South African Reserve Bank Nov Jan Nov-2018 SE Sveriges Riksbank Dec Dec-2018 TR Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Sep Dec-2018

7 (1) Data sources & references: Thomson Reuters Eikon FINVIZ.com TradingView.com Investing.com TradingEconomics.com forexfactory.com Disclaimer - This information has been produced by a third party, for general information purposes only, and is not indicative of future results. AT Global Markets UK Ltd (ATFX UK) takes no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions expressed do not reflect those of ATFX UK. This information does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives, and should therefore not be interpreted as financial, investment or other advice, or relied upon as such. You should seek independent advice before making investment decisions. Reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is not permitted. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.9% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please note: If you are a Professional client, you are not eligible for negative balance protection and you could lose more than your initial deposit. AT Global Markets (UK) Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom. FCA Registration number Registered Office: 1st Floor, 32 Cornhill, EC3V 3SG, United Kingdom. Company No