-3.78% % Forex Market -2.82% -1.52% JAPANESE YEN EURO. 1M %chg

Transcription

1 Thu, 17 Jan 2019

2 17-Oct 17-Oct Forex Market JAPANESE YEN CLOSE M %chg 3M %chg -3.78% -2.82% USD/JPY dips on lower stocks, trades a range of / in Asia -Recent inability to reclaim the lower high and subsequent capitulation below a key higher low at and breach of the 2 1/2 years support line connecting the 99.02/ swing lows, dampens longer term outlook. -Instead of a resumption of the broader uptrend off from prior bullish resolution of the 3 years symmetrical triangle, we are left pondering if we have been left with a false upside break instead. -A move below likely signals the onset of a longer term bear market in this pair. EURO CLOSE 1M %chg % 3M %chg -1.52% -EUR/USD has extended its short-term slide after Draghi's dovish lean yesterday but new longterm lows are unlikely. -EUR/USD has displayed impressive resiliency in the face of growing downside risks such as slower euro area growth, lack of Bund yield gains, the lingering Brexit process and a more cautious ECB. -EUR/USD might trade heavy in the short-term but as long as it remains above the longerterm outlook is likely bullish. 1.09

3 17-Oct 17-Oct Forex Market POUND STERLING CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg % -Little changed in a / range with only occasional interest. -EUR/GBP quiet in a /50 range - Asia avoids GBP on Brexit uncertainty. -House market sales expectations at record lows. -Second Brexit referendum gaining traction % TURKISH LIRA CLOSE 1D %chg 1M %chg % -0.57% -USD/TRY has extended the downside to in the wake of the unchanged rate decision from the CBRT. -The decision was in line with the consensus f/c, though there was the risk of a premature rate cut, after just three months of easing inflation - hence this modest Lira relief rally. -The dividend the CBRT paid to the govt of TRY37bn this year could arguably be seen as a sweetener to keep pressure off rate cuts from the govt. All eyes on the Quarterly Inflation Report next, due Jan 31st

4 17-Oct 17-Oct Commodities GOLD CLOSE 1D %chg 1W %chg % 0.03% -Palladium prices hit record levels on Thursday amid falling supply and growing demand, while Gold stood firm on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold off on further interest rate hikes. -Spot Gold was steady at $1, per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were firm at $1,293 per ounce. -Prices for the metal overtook Gold for the first time in 16 years early in December BRENT CLOSE 1D %chg 1W %chg % -0.20% -Oil prices dipped on Thursday as U.S. crude production quickly approached an unprecedented 12 million barrels per day (bpd) just as worries about weakening demand emerge. -U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52 per barrel at 0140 GMT, down 31 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last settlement. -International Brent crude oil futures were down 34 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $60.98 per barrel.

5 Daily Market Report MARKET SUMMARY CENTRAL BANK OF KUWAIT INSTRUMENT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG 1D EUR % GBP % JPY % TRY % POLICY RATES INDICATOR As of Value Prior Change Dollar Idx % ON Repo Rate 17/Jan/' Brent % 1W Repo Rate 17/Jan/' WTC % 1M Repo Rate 17/Jan/' Gold % KWD ON Rate 17/Jan/' KWSE Index % Discount Rate 17/Jan/' UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES Tenor Value Tenor INDICATOR Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus ON M 2.77 CPI, Core Nationwide YY JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec SW M 2.85 CPI Index Ex Fresh Food* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec M Y 3.01 CPI Ex Fresh Fd and Eng JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec 0.3 2M 2.64 HICP Final YY EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP-X F&E Final YY EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec KIBOR RATES KWD (CBK FIX) CLOSE LIBOR RATES OTHER C-BANK RATES 1D %chg 0.05% INDICATOR As of Value Prior Change FED Target Rate 19/Dec/' Tenor Value Tenor Value ECB Refinancing Rate 10/Mar/' ON M 2.50 BOE Bank Rate 02/Aug/' SW M 2.75 BOJ Prime Rate 10/Jul/' M Y 3.00 TRY ON Lending Rate 21/Sep/' Value

6 Economic Calendar & News ECONOMIC CALENDAR - Upcoming shortly INDICATOR Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus CPI, Core Nationwide YY JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec CPI Less Food and Energy* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec CPI Ex Fresh Fd and Eng JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec 0.3 CPI MM NSA* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec CPI Index Ex Fresh Food* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec CPI, Overall Nationwide JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec 0.8 CPI NSA* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec Nationwide Core CPI MM* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec 0.00 Nationwide Core CPI YY* JP 17/Jan 00:30 Dec 0.1 Foreign Bond Investment JP 17/Jan 00:50 w/e Foreign Invest JP Stock JP 17/Jan 00:50 w/e RICS Housing Survey GB 17/Jan 01:01 Dec Construction Output MM* EU 17/Jan 11:00 Nov HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP Final MM EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP Final YY EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP-X F&E MM EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP-X F&E Final YY EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP-X Tobacco MM EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec HICP-X tobacco YY EU 17/Jan 11:00 Dec 1.9 Building Permits: Number US 17/Jan 13:30 Dec Build Permits: Change MM US 17/Jan 13:30 Dec Housing Starts Number US 17/Jan 13:30 Dec NEWS AND STREET BUZZ Global Top News -Asian share markets faltered on Thursday as unease over China's economic outlook eroded early gains, though an anti-climactic end to the latest chapter in the Brexit saga did offer sterling a moment's peace. -Prime Minister Theresa May won a confidence vote in the British parliament on Wednesday and then appealed to lawmakers from across the political divide to come together to try to break the impasse on a Brexit divorce agreement. -With the partial U.S. government shutdown now in its 26th day, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday urged President Donald Trump to reschedule his State of the Union address - a move that could deny him the opportunity to use the pageantry of the speech to attack Democrats in their own chamber over the impasse. -U.S. financial technology provider Fiserv Inc said on Wednesday it had agreed to buy payment processor First Data Corp in a $22 billion all-stock deal, the biggest ever acquisition in the booming market for digital payments. -Currency options markets appear to signal an increasing bias towards bets that Britain will extend its deadline to leave the European Union, a move seen as bullish for sterling over the short term at least. -The value of traded global markets for carbon dioxide (CO2) allowances soared 250 percent last year to a record high of 144 billion euros ($164 billion). -U.S. import prices fell for a second straight month in December as the cost of petroleum products tumbled and a strong dollar curbed prices of other goods, leading to the largest year-on-year drop in more than two years. -Turkey's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday as expected, allaying investor fears that it could loosen policy after inflation fell from a 15-year high due to a rebound in the lira.

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