-0.06% % Forex Market 0.18% -2.54% JAPANESE YEN EURO. 1M %chg

Transcription

1 Thu, 20 Dec 2018

2 19-Sep 19-Sep Forex Market JAPANESE YEN CLOSE M %chg 3M %chg -0.06% 0.18% In the mid-term, that was a great call. The price was going higher till the 13th of December, giving potential buyers around 80 pips. -This week started with the heavy drop of the USD, which drove us back to the point from the previous analysis. -For some people, that drop actually brings a sell signal as it managed to break the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern. -Not so much as we stopped on a first important horizontal support (112.25). As long as we stay above, the bearish scenario is not complete. -The price closing a day below that line will be a proper sell signal. The final answer we should get pretty soon. EURO 1.20 CLOSE 1M %chg % 3M %chg -2.54% EUR/USD is holding close to the handle and weekly highs after Italy was said to have reached a technical agreement with EU officials over its budget. Note, Italy has dropped its deficit target to 2.04% from 2.4% in an effort to appease the EU - a deal is expected to be announced today. -Broad Usd weakness on expectations of a dovish Fed hike is also keeping the pair elevated near the highs. Indeed, uncertainty over the Fed's rate hike path in 2019 is clearly preventing investors from placing any aggressive bullish bets in regards to the Usd, thus keeping a lid on any strong follow-through in the headline. -The FOMC is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision later during the US trading session and the updated economic projection, especially the dot-plot, will be eyed for fresh directional impetus.

3 19-Sep 19-Sep Forex Market POUND STERLING CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg % -4.07% -The GBP/USD saw some choppy swings ytd that were mainly dictated by the USD as early gains were pared post Europe's close on the back of USD strength from a Fed that was perceived as not dovish enough -Technically, the 100hour MA has now shifted above its 200hour counterpart which would suggest some n/t strength. That said, with the UK House of Commons vote now pushed to mid-jan and the face-to-face US-Sino trade talks only resuming in Jan, there will not be any fundamental changes in outlook that would warrant rushing into any GBP longs -Price now finding support at its 100hour MA with immediate resistance seen at its 50hour MA at %. -Sell at and , targeting a run down to , placing stops at TURKISH LIRA CLOSE 1D %chg 1M %chg % -0.35% - USD/TRY now testing new Dec lows below , despite an up tick in oil prices, as the Lira and oil finds strength on the news that US PRES TRUMP had ordered the full withdrawal of troops from Syria as ISIS no longer operated in the country. This further adds to a theory that the US and Turkey are coming together in the region, which started when the US State Dept stating it would sell the Patriot Missile System to Turkey. The news means that Turkey will avert a clash with US troops in Syria, having only last week threatened to send forces in Syria toward Kurdish-held areas where US troops are operating, raising fears that the NATO allays could clash in a military sense.

4 19-Sep 19-Sep Commodities GOLD CLOSE 1D %chg 1W %chg % -0.19% -Gold steadied on Thursday, after declining about half a percent in the previous session as the U.S. Federal Reserve did not deliver as dovish a statement as some investors had expected. -Spot Gold was up 0.1 percent at $1, per ounce, as of 0141 GMT. Prices slipped about 0.5 percent on Wednesday, in their sharpest decline since Nov U.S. Gold futures declined 0.7 percent to $1,247.4 per ounce BRENT CLOSE 1D %chg 1W %chg % -4.84% -Oil prices fell on Thursday to erase most of their gains from the day before, resuming declines seen earlier in the week amid worries about oversupply and the outlook for the global economy. -The front-month U.S. crude contract had fallen 78 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $47.39 per barrel by 0129 GMT, nearly offseting gains of 96 cents chalked up on Wednesday. -International benchmark Brent crude futures were down 66 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $56.58 per barrel, after climbing almost 2 percent the session before. -J32The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers including Russia agreed this month to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an attempt to drain tanks and boost prices. -Oil prices are down more than 30 percent from peaks seen in October.

5 Daily Market Report MARKET SUMMARY CENTRAL BANK OF KUWAIT INSTRUMENT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG 1D EUR % GBP % JPY % TRY % POLICY RATES INDICATOR As of Value Prior Change Dollar Idx % ON Repo Rate 20/Dec/' Brent % 1W Repo Rate 20/Dec/' WTC % 1M Repo Rate 20/Dec/' Gold % KWD ON Rate 20/Dec/' KWSE Index % Discount Rate 20/Dec/' UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES Tenor Value Tenor INDICATOR Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus ON M 2.79 CPI, Core Nationwide YY JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov SW M 2.88 CPI Index Ex Fresh Food* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov M Y 3.06 CPI Ex Fresh Fd and Eng JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov 0.4 2M 2.59 GB BOE QE Corp* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 10 BOE Bank Rate* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 0.75 KIBOR RATES KWD (CBK FIX) CLOSE LIBOR RATES OTHER C-BANK RATES 1D %chg -0.03% INDICATOR As of Value Prior Change FED Target Rate 19/Dec/' Tenor Value Tenor Value ECB Refinancing Rate 10/Mar/' ON M 2.13 BOE Bank Rate 02/Aug/' SW M 2.38 BOJ Prime Rate 10/Jul/' M Y 2.63 TRY ON Lending Rate 21/Sep/' Value

6 Economic Calendar & News ECONOMIC CALENDAR - Upcoming shortly INDICATOR Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus CPI, Core Nationwide YY JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov CPI Less Food and Energy* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov CPI Ex Fresh Fd and Eng JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov 0.4 CPI MM NSA* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov 0.29 CPI Index Ex Fresh Food* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov CPI, Overall Nationwide JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov 1.4 CPI NSA* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov Nationwide Core CPI MM* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov 0.20 Nationwide Core CPI YY* JP 20/Dec 00:30 Nov 0.1 Current Account NSA,EUR EU 20/Dec 10:00 Oct 24.1 Current Account SA, EUR EU 20/Dec 10:00 Oct 16.9 Retail Sales MM GB 20/Dec 10:30 Nov Retail Sales YY GB 20/Dec 10:30 Nov Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM GB 20/Dec 10:30 Nov Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY GB 20/Dec 10:30 Nov CBI Distributive Trades GB 20/Dec 12:00 Dec GB BOE QE Corp* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 10 BOE Bank Rate* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 0.75 BOE Bank Rate* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 0.75 GB BOE QE Gilts* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 435 BOE MPC Vote Cut* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 0 0 BOE MPC Vote Hike* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 0 0 BOE MPC Vote Unchanged* GB 20/Dec 13:00 Dec 9 9 Initial Jobless Claims US 20/Dec 14:30 w/e NEWS AND STREET BUZZ Global Top News -The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and reaffirmed its view the economy is on a solid footing, even as fears of slowing global growth jolt markets and lowered prospects for hitting its 2 percent inflation target. -After weeks of market volatility and calls by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates, the U.S. central bank instead did it again, and stuck by a plan to keep withdrawing support from an economy it views as strong. -Asian shares retreated on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates, as expected, and kept most of its guidance for additional hikes next year, dashing investor hopes for a more dovish policy outlook. -The warning signs are multiplying and becoming clearer: global trade growth is slowing, which will pose an increasing threat to the world economy and financial markets next year. -With just 100 days until Brexit, the EU's executive cautioned that most banking, insurance and other financial firms in Britain would be cut off from the European Union if there is no divorce deal. -Saudi Arabia's stock market fell sharply on Wednesday after oil prices sank and the government released its 2019 budget, while Dubai rebounded on the back of a rise in bank shares. -Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has picked OMV to join other partners exploring the Ghasha offshore gas and condensate fields, awarding the Austrian oil and gas group a 5 percent stake in the concession for 40 years. -Kuwait's Agility, one of the largest Gulf logistics companies, is in talks with banks to raise around $800 million in debt as it plans to grow its business, including expanding its global warehouse capacity, the company's chief executive told Reuters. -Bahrain's central bank said on Wednesday that it had decided to raise its one-week deposit facility to 2.75 percent from 2.50 percent.

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