Weekly Economic Update

Transcription

1 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March

2 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 % % Bn Euro Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March 2012 Recent Macroeconomic Developments Global The global economic recovery on the right track, but downside risks exist Strong economic indicators in the US in recent months, coupled with the latest European initiatives to solve the eurozone s debt crisis, will pull the global economy from the brink of danger, according to the IMF boss, Christine Lagarde. The US manufacturing sector, along with positive employment data, has been vibrant in recent months, growing by 5.3% on an annual basis. In Europe, besides the recent successful restructuring of the Greek debt, exports from the Euro Zone increased by 11% in January 2012, aided by a surge in German exports of cars and machinery, which helped to reduce the bloc's trade deficit by 60%, to 7.6 billion compared with 16.1 billion two years ago. But high debt levels in developed markets, rising oil prices and overheating pressures in emerging markets still constitute key risks that need to be managed carefully and decisively. Efforts aimed at creating jobs and boosting growth and competitiveness, especially in highly indebted countries, should be pursued vigorously to bring back the world economy on course. US Manufacturing Production Index (chg y/y) Euro Zone Trade Trade deficit (RHS) Exports growth rate (LHS) Source: Thomson Reuters 2

3 SAR billion Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March 2012 Recent Macroeconomic Developments GCC Saudi healthcare investment to surge sharply Saudi Arabia healthcare investment is expected to increase significantly over the next three years due to a rise in demand for medical facilities and a wide range of healthcare services. Total healthcare expenditure in the Kingdom nearly reached SAR70 billion in 2010, up from SAR61 billion in the previous year, and on current trends (a CAGR of 12.3%) it is estimated to exceed SAR90 billion by Demographic factors such as a growing population, which currently exceeds 28 million, coupled with higher technological progress, are fuelling innovation in the healthcare sector across the country. The public sector will, however, continue to account for the lion s share of investment in the healthcare sector with around 62% of the total healthcare expenditure Saudi Arabia Healthcare Expenditure e 2015F Government Private Source: WHO; Gulf One 3

4 Weekly Economic Update 17-Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar-12 0 Sunday, 18 March 2012 COMMODITIES Brent Oil Price (US$/barrel) Gold Price (US$/ounce) As March 16 (US$) Current Week Ago Weekly Change Brent Oil (barrel) Gold (ounce) Silver (ounce) Copper (pound) Aluminium (kilo) Source: Thomson Reuters 4

5 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Currencies Current ( 16 March 2012) Week Ago Weekly Change International $1 $1 (%) Euro GBP Yen CNY INR CHF GCC AED BHD KWD OMR QAR SAR Euro, Yen & Pound vs Dollar Euro (LHS) Pound (LHS) Yen (RHS) The Dollar Index Source: Thomson Reuters 5

6 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March 2012 Stock markets DowJones 2.40% 13,233 CAC % 3, NASDAQ 2.24% 3,055 FTSE % 5, S&P % 1,404 Nikkei % 10,130 Source: Thomson Reuters 6

7 7-Mar-12 7-Mar-12 6-Mar-12 7-Mar-12 7-Mar-12 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March Mar-12 Stock markets Abu Dhabi 2.50% , Kuwait 0.38% , Doha 0.77% 8,660 Muscat 1.57% 5, Dubai 4.53% Saudi 2.62% 7,568 1,683 Source: Zawya 7

8 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March 2012 Stock markets Stock Exchange Current A Week Ago Weekly Change (16 March) (%) Dow Jones (US) 13,233 12, Nasdaq (US) 3,055 2, S&P500 (US) 1,404 1, CAC40 (FR) 3,595 3, FTSE100 (UK) 5,966 5, Nikkei225 (JP) 10,130 9, Abu Dhabi 2,626 2, Bahrain 1,152 1, Doha 8,660 8, Dubai 1,683 1, Kuwait 6,200 6, Muscat 5,951 5, Saudi Arabia 7,568 7, Source: Thomson Reuters and Zawya 8

9 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March 2012 Miscellaneous GULF projects Projects planned or under way Projects planned or under way Change on week (%) Projects planned or under way Change on year (%) 6-Mar Mar-11 ($m) ($m) ($m) Bahrain 62,246 62, , Kuwait 198, , , Oman 113, , , Qatar 222, , , Saudi Arabia 740, , , UAE 564, , , GCC 1,902,057 1,898, ,842, Iran 300, , , Iraq 308, , , Gulf Total 2,511,725 2,503, ,411, Source: MEED 9

10 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 18 March 2012 Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C. (c) is a Bahrain registered bank whose vision is to be the leading knowledge-based infrastructure investment bank in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. Its mission is to mobilise local and global capital to accelerate the execution of infrastructure projects via innovative custom made financial solutions. This Weekly Economic Update has been prepared by staff in the Research Department of Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C. (c) under the general direction of Dr. Nahed Taher, Founder & CEO of Gulf One Investment Bank. The Research team comprises: Dr. Mohammed Salisu Chief Economist Gulf One Investment Bank m.salisu@gulf1bank.com Ms. Lobna Bousrih Research Analyst Gulf One Investment Bank l.bousrih@gulf1bank.com Ms. Sana Harrabi Research Analyst Gulf One Investment Bank s.harrabi@gulf1bank.com All comments and enquiries about this Economic Update should be sent to Dr. Mohammed Salisu at the above mentioned address. Disclaimer This Weekly Economic Update was prepared by Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C (c), ( Gulf One ) and is of a general nature and is not intended to provide specific advice on any matter, nor is it intended to be comprehensive or to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. This material is based on current public information that we consider reliable at the time of publication, but it does not provide tailored investment advice or recommendations. It has been prepared without regard to the financial circumstances and objectives of persons and/or organisations who receive it. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. In addition, the views expressed in this Economic Update do not necessarily represent the views of the Management or Board of Directors of Gulf One Investment Bank. This Weekly Economic Update or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Gulf One. 10