Vision Asset Management Co. (S.A.O.C)

Transcription

1 Vision Asset Management Co. (S.A.O.C) Factsheets CONTENTS Market Update Funds Snapshot.. 4 Equity Funds Diversified Vision Emerging GCC Fund Country Specific Vision Emerging Oman Fund Thematic Vision Real Economy GCC Fund Vision Focused Fund....8 Shariah Vision Al Khair GCC Fund Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC; ; ;

2 Market Update Global Markets Global equity markets fell in December. Markets were led lower by the US and political turmoil in Washington which unsettled markets further. Volatility returned to the US equity market with stocks dropping to the brink of a bear (slow growth) market in December. The December slump was among the worst in history and the US equity market was on track for the biggest December fall since the Great Depression of Market sentiment was driven by concerns that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was raising interest rates too quickly the Fed raised its base rate before Christmas and forecast two further interest rate increases next year. UK equity markets fell during the final month of 2018, continuing the downward trend that characterised the second half of the year, amid rising concerns of a global economic slowdown and falling Brent crude oil prices. Persistent Brexit uncertainty also continued to weigh on sterling and sentiment toward domestic equities. Heightened fears of a no-deal Brexit scenario on this news saw the pound fall to a 20-month low versus the US dollar. However, the Prime Minister s survival of the subsequent no-confidence vote launched by the Conservative Party, saw the pound recover some losses. European equity markets suffered severe losses in December. Protests in Paris weighed heavily on eurozone economic indicators. The Italian 10 year government bond yield dropped from 3.2% to 2.7% after the government agreed to a 2019 Budget that will avoid triggering the Excessive Debt Procedure (EDP). MTD YTD P/E (x) Commodities Brent spot -8.36% % - Gold 4.90% -1.58% - Leading Benchmarks S&P Global BMI -7.35% % S&P Developed BMI -7.85% % S&P Emerging BMI -2.80% % S&P GCC Comp Index 0.67% 8.24% S&P GCC Shariah Index 1.00% 6.46% MSCI World -7.71% % MSCI Emerging -2.92% % MSCI GCC 0.92% 12.11% Developed Equities Dow Jones -8.66% -5.63% S&P % -6.24% FTSE -3.61% % DAX -6.20% % CAC -5.46% % Emerging Equities Nikkei % % Sensex -0.35% 5.91% Shanghai -3.64% % GCC Equities & Egypt Saudi Arabia 1.61% 8.31% Abu Dhabi 3.04% 11.75% Dubai -5.21% % 8.53 Oman -2.00% % Kuwait -0.58% 5.16% Doha -0.63% 20.83% Bahrain 0.64% -0.10% 8.69 Egypt -2.13% % Elsewhere in the EU, the Romanian Government last month unveiled unexpected proposals for a particularly harsh levy on the banking sector. Slowing global growth and continuing trade frictions between the US and China rattled world equity markets in December. Emerging equities were not immune to the broad sell-off but losses here were much smaller than those registered in developed markets. Asia was the weakest performing region, dragged lower by index heavyweights China and India. Equity losses in Latin America were less pronounced as both Mexico and Peru posted positive monthly returns. In emerging Europe, Russia lost ground mainly due to currency weakness and lower energy prices Brent crude oil dropped 9.7% and natural gas prices fell sharply, down 33.5%. Industrial metals such as copper and aluminium also declined in value, unlike defensive hedges like precious metals (gold and silver) which rose in price. It was a mixed picture on the currency front with the South African rand joining the Russian rouble as the main laggards, whereas the Mexican peso rallied strongly against the US dollar. A stronger currency helped push Mexico to the top of the leader board in both Latin America and emerging markets last month.

3 GCC Markets The IMF expects real GDP growth to pick up in the GCC (from 2.2% to 2.4% in, from 2.9% to 3.7% in the UAE, from 2.3% to 4.1% in Kuwait, and from 1.9% and 5.0% in Oman in 2018 and 2019 respectively), except in Bahrain (down from 3.2% to 2.6%). This represents an upward adjustment of 0.5% for Saudi, 0.6% for the UAE, 0.2% for Kuwait, 0.9% for Oman and 0.3% for Bahrain compared to the April outlook. However, the outlook for non-oil also brightens thanks to trickle-down effects with Saudi having lifted planned spending by 9-10% for FY19/20e and UAE filling in the details of its AED 50bn economic stimulus. Saudi banks have reached a settlement of SAR 16.5bn, to resolve a longstanding issue over the admissibility of long-term investments in the zakat base. Zakat is considered a liability of the shareholders, and is paid by the banks on their behalf. However, banks make their own calculations of the zakat base and payment, which is then subject to review. Banks have accumulated different levels of provisions in anticipation of the ruling. We expect continued double-digit EPS growth in FY 19e for most banks, as asset yields continue to pick up, and credit growth begins to improve. Qatar continues to be isolated but has shown resilience in their economic growth due to state support to both the private and government sector. While the index heavy stocks in Qatar stock exchange have seen an increase in prices, the rest of the markets have been subdued. We expect index flows to continue to be a main driver of stock and country performance going into the New Year with a particular focus in H1 19 on the Saudi EM inclusion into the MSCI and FTSE indexes. We expect to see a strong performance in the market, with the blue chips standing to benefit the most on the back of combined strong fundamentals, as well as sizeable index flows. Banks continue to be most resilient as higher interest rates feed through their books, growth is expected to continue though it s a challenging environment, as effects peter out as US Fed rate cycle comes to an end. Health care and consumer sector experienced a challenging year in FY 18e as expat exodus weighed on spending. We expect health care to stage a comeback in FY 19e on the new table of benefits and Saudi enforcement for those working in private sector gets enforced. Vision Funds Abu Dhabi was the top performing GCC market, followed by Saudi Arabia & Bahrain. Dubai declined the most, followed by Qatar & Kuwait. The Vision Emerging GCC Fund declined by 0.77% while the Vision Real Economy GCC Fund declined by 0.28%. The Sharia focused Vision Al Khair GCC Fund gained by 0.99% for the month. Vision Focused Fund lost 1.49% for the month with its concentrated portfolio strategy. The Vision Emerging Oman Fund declined 1.32% for the month. Outlook In our opinion, oil prices will average about $70/ in 2019 unchanged from We see a gradual recovery in oil prices throughout 2019 as current fog over interest rates and trade war clears. However, the volatile nature of international oil prices is now a bigger risk to GCC long term government plans due to the negative implications on GCC sovereign credit rating. On the positive side, this is an ideal climate for increased privatization initiatives as well as beneficial to private sector enterprises who could take advantage of such long term distortion. We view this as a structural shift in business dynamics of the region which is an opportunity. We remain optimistic about GCC outlook next year.

4 Inception Mutual Fund AUM (OMR mn) Funds Snapshot Returns Matrix AUM (USD mn) Performance (Return) Dec-18 YTD Year 5 Year Since Inception May, 2005 Vision Emerging GCC Fund * % 0.25% -3.25% 5.31% -2.93% % 5.88% August, 2007 Vision Emerging Oman Fund * % -6.93% -4.50% -3.11% % 16.24% 1.33% April, 2010 Vision Real Economy GCC Fund * % 0.26% -4.07% 2.65% 0.89% 68.66% 6.18% May, 2013 Vision Al Khair GCC Fund * % 2.31% -5.41% 0.19% % 4.34% 0.76% January, 2017 Vision Focused Fund % -4.25% % NA NA % NA Ann. Return Risk Matrix Year of Std. Sharpe Active Tracking Informatio Winning Losing Mutual Fund Beta R Squared Inception Deviation Ratio Return Error n Ratio Months Months May, 2005 Vision Emerging GCC Fund * 17.68% % 7.50% % August, 2007 Vision Emerging Oman Fund * 13.58% % 4.08% % April, 2010 Vision Real Economy GCC Fund * 11.01% 0.40 NA NA NA NA NA May, 2013 Vision Al Khair GCC Fund * 10.78% % 7.47% (0.44) % (* Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested) Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC; ; ; 4

5 NAV (per unit) RO (USD ) Performance Chart* The primary objective of Vision Emerging GCC Fund (VEGF) is to maximize the risk adjusted returns, as measured by Sharpe Ratio. It follows a flexible asset allocation policy with investments spread across a diversified range of investment options including alternative investments. Date of Inception May 19, 2005 Lipper ID Bloomberg ID VSEMGCC OM Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC National Bank Of Oman (* Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested) Administrator Vision Investment Services Co. SAOC Country Auditors Moore Stephens LLC Fund Type Open Ended Ann. Standard Deviation 17.68% High/(Low) Monthly Return 12.80% (July 2013), % (October 2008) Latest Dividend Paid 60 baiza (2016) Total Div. & Bonus Paid 370 baiza (Dividend), 60% (Bonus) Sector Country Al Rajhi Bank 10.9% Sabic 8.9% NCB 6.9% SAMBA 6.7% Al Rajhi Takaful 5.6% Fund Performance* Dec-18 YTD 5 Years Since Inception -0.77% 0.25% -2.93% % (* Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested) Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC; ; ;

6 NAV RO (USD ) Performance Chart* * Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested Sector - VEOF Telecommunic ation Services 14% Materials 7% Insurance 18% Banks 43% The primary objective of the Fund is to achieve growth through capital appreciation and dividend income by investing in equities listed and/or to be listed on the Muscat Securities Market ( MSM ) Date of Inception Lipper ID Bloomberg ID Investment Manager Administrator Auditors Fund Type Annualized Standard Deviation High/(Low) Monthly Return 6-Aug VISOMAN OM Latest Dividend Paid 70 baiza (2016) Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC National bank Of Oman Vision Investment Services Co. SAOC PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Open Ended Fund 13.58% 13.13% (Oct 2007); % (Oct 2008) Food & Beverage 2% Energy 4% Materials 7% Sector - MSM Index Leasing 2% Cash 0% Services 0% Capital Goods 3% Bonds 0% Total Dividend & Bonus Paid 245 baiza Telecommunic ation Services 20% Commercial & Professional Serv Insurance 1% 1% Capital Goods 1% Diversified Financials 2% Utilities 4% Energy 7% Materials 4% Food & Beverage 2% Banks 58% Bank Muscat (Omr) 11.86% Oman United Insurance (Omr) 7.46% Ooredoo (Omr) 7.08% National Bank Of Oman (Omr) 6.59% Oman Telecommunication (Omr) 6.59% Fund Performance* Dec-18 YTD 5 Years Since Incep Year Yearly Return Total Return Fund -1.32% -6.93% % 16.24% MSM30 Index -2.00% % % % * Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 32.36% 4.45% 13.13% 4.92% 7.49% % % 1.40% 12.79% -0.02% 12.56% 2.35% -1.95% -6.01% % -9.80% % 0.21% % % 1.82% -9.52% -0.11% 1.71% 10.45% 6.64% 3.28% 2.99% 8.23% 2.55% -3.24% -0.51% -0.12% % 12.05% 2.94% 2.56% 2.51% 2.33% -8.07% -2.35% 3.26% -0.98% 3.13% 1.81% 0.61% 2.48% % 0.60% 1.71% % 0.00% 7.11% -5.26% 0.00% -2.73% 0.07% -2.67% 0.62% -2.96% 5.89% % 5.10% -1.79% 4.45% -0.19% 2.91% 0.00% -3.30% -5.95% 2.49% 1.42% 2.10% -1.76% 4.57% % 36.37% 1.05% 3.90% 3.95% 1.97% 5.89% -1.94% 5.82% 0.62% 0.52% 2.04% 1.29% 1.52% % 30.29% 6.24% 0.46% -0.84% -1.15% 0.22% 1.52% 1.41% 2.25% 0.88% -6.97% -4.60% -3.31% % 19.97% 3.10% 0.26% -3.32% 2.37% 0.96% 1.84% 1.93% -7.83% -0.01% 1.41% -6.45% -1.76% % 30.78% -3.89% 3.07% 2.90% 7.43% -2.39% -0.66% 1.77% -1.73% -0.23% -2.66% 0.37% 5.31% % 24.90% -0.09% 1.32% -0.64% 1.26% -0.29% -4.40% -2.50% 0.50% 1.33% -3.18% 2.33% -0.01% % 16.24% -0.88% -0.35% -1.55% 0.84% -0.35% -0.59% -4.04% 0.93% 2.80% -2.13% -0.35% -1.32% Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC; ; ; 6

7 NAV (per unit) RO (USD ) Performance Chart * The objective of the Fund is to achieve capital appreciation and income generation by providing its investors the opportunity to participate in the growth of Real Economy Sectors of GCC. Date of Inception April 14, 2010 Lipper ID (* Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested) Country Bloomberg ID VIREGCC OM Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC National Bank of Oman Administrator Vision Investment Services Co. SAOC Auditors Moore Stephens LLC Fund type Open Ended Annualized Standard Deviation 11.01% High/(Low) Monthly Return 10.32% (March 2011), % (August 2015) Latest Dividend Paid 60 baiza (2017) Total Dividend Paid 490 baiza Country Aramex UAE 10% Jarir 8% Sector Yansab Extra 8% 8% Sabic 7% Fund Performance * Dec-18 YTD 5 Years Since Incep. -0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 68.7% (* Adjusted for dividends, assuming dividends are reinvested) Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC; ; ; 7

8 NAV (per unit) RO (USD ) Performance Chart The objective of the Fund is to pursue long-term capital growth by investing in a concentrated set of select stocks in the middle east equity market sphere. Country Date of Inception 12-Jan-17 Lipper ID Bloomberg ID - Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC National Bank of Oman Administrator Vision Investment Services Co. SAOC Auditors Moore Stephens LLC Fund type Open Ended Annualized Standard Deviation 7.68% High/(Low) Monthly Return 3.29% (July '17)/-4.32% (Nov '17) Latest Dividend Paid - Total Dividend Paid - Country Al Rajhi Bank 10.8% Sector Aramex UAE 10.4% National Bank Of Kuwait Kuwait 10.1% Dubai Islamic Bank UAE 9.9% Extra 8.0% Fund Performance Nov-18 YTD 5 Years Since Incep % -4.25% NA % Investment Manager Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC; ; ; 8

9 NAV (per unit) RO (USD ) Performance Chart* The objective of the Fund is to achieve capital appreciation and income generation by providing its unit holders an opportunity to invest in the listed securities in the GCC economies that are compliant to Shariah principles. The Fund will follow a dynamic allocation policy with investments spread across a diversified range of industries in the GCC. Date of Inception May 15, 2013 Lipper ID Bloomberg ID Investment Manager VISAKGC OM Vision Asset Management Co. SAOC National Bank of Oman (* Adjusted for bonus, dividend) Administrator Vision Investment Services Co. SAOC Countrywise Auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Fund type Open Ended Ann. Standard Deviation 10.78% High / (Low) Monthly Return 8.53% (April 2015), % (August 2015) Latest Dividend Paid - Total Dividend & Bonus Paid 50 baiza (Dividend), 5% (Bonus) Country Al Rajhi Bank Aramex UAE 9% 9% Sector Jarir Al Rajhi Takaful Agility Kuwait Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 7% 6% 6% Fund Performance* Dec-18 YTD 5 Years Since Inception 0.99% 2.31% % 4.34% (* Adjusted for bonus, dividend) 9