Weekly Economic Update

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1 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March

2 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Recent Macroeconomic Developments Global EU Leaders sign fiscal discipline treaty to rein in debt All European Union (EU) countries, except the UK and Czech Republic, signed a new treaty on tighter budget discipline for the euro zone on Friday, under which countries are bound to write a 'golden rule' on balanced budgets into their national statutes, with automatic correction mechanisms if the rule is breached. The new treaty will now have to be ratified by the 25 EU signatory countries and it requires approval by at least 12 Eurozone countries to take effect. The deal was received with optimism but critics have doubted its credibility due to lack of an effective enforcement mechanism, arguing that the erstwhile fiscal deficit ceiling of 3% of GDP enshrined in the fiscal growth pact was flouted with impunity by both rich and poor countries alike. The deal may also be too little too late to address the immediate growth and competitiveness challenges facing the euro area as economic activities continue to falter and manufacturing indices remain below the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction. In addition, the new deal may not be enough to save Greece from the abyss despite securing a second bail-out fund. It is therefore not surprising that Moody's Investors Service, the rating agency, cut Greece's local and foreigncurrency bond ratings to C from Ca, bringing the country to its lowest possible level. There were, however, cheerful news coming from the eurozone as the European Central Bank (ECB) injected around 530 billion liquidity into the banking system, aimed at stabilising sovereign bond markets in debt-stressed countries. The ECB support, along with the new fiscal stability agreement, will boost confidence in the beleaguered euro. Business Surveys, PMI index, Manufacturing Sector Euro Zone Germany France Greece Spain Italy Japan USA UK China Jan Feb Source: Thomson Reuters 2

3 MW Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Recent Macroeconomic Developments GCC Electricity demand in the GCC countries to accelerate Electricity demand is expected to more than double in the GCC countries within a decade, to exceed 162 thousand megawatts by 2020 compared with 80 thousand megawatts in Demographic dynamics, economic diversification efforts and infrastructure developments across the region are key drivers of growth in demand for electricity. Saudi Arabia, the most populous country in the region, will account for the lion s share of power consumption, expected to reach 78 thousand megawatts by 2020, followed by the UAE with 41 thousand megawatts. The rest of the GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman) will together have a combined demand of around 43 thousand mega watts in 10 years time. As fossil fuel, an exhaustible resource, is the principal feedstock for power generation in the region, this trend provides food for thought on the need for innovative policies towards energy efficiency as well as addressing renewable energy challenges. 90,000 80,000 70, Electricity demand forecasts in the GCC countries 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Dubai Source: MEED 3

4 Weekly Economic Update 03-Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb-12 Sunday, 04 March 2012 COMMODITIES 129 Brent Oil Price (US$/barrel) 1790 Gold Price (US$/ounce) As March 02 (US$) Current Week Ago Weekly Change Brent Oil (barrel) Gold (ounce) Silver (ounce) Copper (pound) Aluminium (kilo) Source: Thomson Reuters 4

5 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb-12 Currencies Current ( 02 March 2012) Week Ago Weekly Change International $1 $1 (%) Euro GBP Yen CNY INR CHF GCC AED Euro, Yen & Pound vs Dollar Euro (LHS) Pound (LHS) Yen (RHS) BHD KWD The Dollar Index OMR QAR SAR Source: Thomson Reuters 5

6 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Stock markets DowJones 0.04% , CAC % , NASDAQ FTSE % 2, % 5, S&P % 1,370 Nikkei % 9, Source: Thomson Reuters 6

7 21-Feb Feb-12 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Stock markets Abu Dhabi 3.33% 2,624 Kuwait 0.74% 6, Doha 0.10% 8,742 Muscat 2.55% 5, Dubai 4.27% 1,702 Saudi 2.78% 7,226 Source: Zawya 7

8 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Stock markets Stock Exchange Current A Week Ago Weekly Change (02 March) (%) Dow Jones (US) 12,978 12, Nasdaq (US) 2,976 2, S&P500 (US) 1,370 1, CAC40 (FR) 3,501 3, FTSE100 (UK) 5,911 5, Nikkei225 (JP) 9,777 9, Abu Dhabi 2,624 2, Bahrain 1,148 1, Doha 8,742 8, Dubai 1,702 1, Kuwait 6,134 6, Muscat 5,842 5, Saudi Arabia 7,226 7, Source: Thomson Reuters and Zawya 8

9 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Miscellaneous GULF projects Projects planned or under way Projects planned or under way Change on week (%) Projects planned or under way Change on year (%) 21-Feb-12 1-Mar-11 ($m) ($m) ($m) Bahrain 62,346 62, , Kuwait 188, , , Oman 115, , , Qatar 222, , , Saudi Arabia 741, , , UAE 549, , , GCC 1,880,220 1,860, ,863, Iran 300, , , Iraq 301, , , Gulf Total 2,482,069 2,460, ,430, Source: MEED 9

10 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 04 March 2012 Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C. (c) is a Bahrain registered bank whose vision is to be the leading knowledge-based infrastructure investment bank in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. Its mission is to mobilise local and global capital to accelerate the execution of infrastructure projects via innovative custom made financial solutions. This Weekly Economic Update has been prepared by staff in the Research Department of Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C. (c) under the general direction of Dr. Nahed Taher, Founder & CEO of Gulf One Investment Bank. The Research team comprises: Dr. Mohammed Salisu Chief Economist Gulf One Investment Bank m.salisu@gulf1bank.com Ms. Lobna Bousrih Research Analyst Gulf One Investment Bank l.bousrih@gulf1bank.com Ms. Sana Harrabi Research Analyst Gulf One Investment Bank s.harrabi@gulf1bank.com All comments and enquiries about this Economic Update should be sent to Dr. Mohammed Salisu at the above mentioned address. Disclaimer This Weekly Economic Update was prepared by Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C (c), ( Gulf One ) and is of a general nature and is not intended to provide specific advice on any matter, nor is it intended to be comprehensive or to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. This material is based on current public information that we consider reliable at the time of publication, but it does not provide tailored investment advice or recommendations. It has been prepared without regard to the financial circumstances and objectives of persons and/or organisations who receive it. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. In addition, the views expressed in this Economic Update do not necessarily represent the views of the Management or Board of Directors of Gulf One Investment Bank. This Weekly Economic Update or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Gulf One. 10

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