0.51% % Forex Market 1.75% 0.38% JAPANESE YEN EURO. 1M %chg

Transcription

1 Sun, 18 Nov 2018

2 16-Aug 16-Aug Forex Market JAPANESE YEN CLOSE M %chg 3M %chg 0.51% 1.75% The Yen trading mixed yest, rallying against the Sterling but fell against the Euro, Aussie (strong Aust jobs report) and Kiwi. -USD/JPY erased all of it's initial losses as UST yields edged off their lows and with US equities rebounding o/n. -The Yen is trading firmer today on the back of a decline in Asian equities. -At this point in time, we are still expecting mixed trade across the Yen complex. -No changes were made in today's BOJ regular bond purchase operations in the 5-10yr, 10-25yr and greater than 25yr segments. -Our models continue to suggest that USD/JPY will swing btwn a / range in the interim with it's 50mth MA serving as pivot. EURO 1.20 CLOSE 1M %chg % 3M %chg 0.38% There was a bout of contagion after UK Brexit Sec Raab resigned, with the Euro coming under pressure early in the European session although the complex diverged from there. -In truth, there was little material Euro reaction to a La Stampa report that Italian PM Conte is seeking to work with the EU on the budget impasse (and that he's seeking ensure any EU sanctions is limited to the budget deficit) with another report stating that Conte is asking EU Juncker to not start the deficit procedure yet. -Looking ahead, we continue to see downside risks for the Euro on the back of the Italian budget overhang, German political stasis (with Merkel now a lame duck, jostling for the CDU leadership position heading into Dec's conference), the recent spate of weak EZ econ data, and the risk that the ECB may hold rates well beyond the summer of Sell around , targeting a run down to , placing stops at

3 16-Aug 16-Aug Forex Market POUND STERLING CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg % 0.94% -The Sterling came under leveraged/macro selling pressure as the European session got underway yest, after N.Ireland's minister of state Vara resigned in protest against the draft Brexit deal. -This focused traders into pricing in more political woes for PM May (risk of either cabinet or ministerial resignations) which would make the arithmetic of parliament passing the draft Brexit deal even more challenging. -Raab's resignation sparked an instant surge of macro/leveraged/algo selling in the Sterling, and the Sterling's losses were subsequently compounded by Cabinet Minister McVey's resignation and reports that Tory Brexiteers have submitted letters of no-confidence in PM May. -Sell on strength around /28, targeting a run down to /16, placing stops at TURKISH LIRA CLOSE 1D %chg 1M %chg % -6.16% -The Lira extended its region beating gains after the European close yesterday as it was reported by NBC that the White House was considering extraditing cleric FETULLAH GULEN back to Turkey in an effort to persuade Turkish Pres Erdogan to ease pressure on Saudi Arabia over the murder of Khashoggi. -USD/TRY extended losses to more than 2% as a result, to ,a near 2 week low. The pair has since trimmed losses to trade a narrow ca range. -US State Dept spokesperson Nauert denied that the White House is involved in any discussions related to Gulen's extradition, while Turkey officials have said they do not link concerns about Khashoggi's murder with Gulen's extradition. The markets will be keeping an eye out for any developments on this front.

4 16-Aug 16-Aug Commodities GOLD CLOSE 1D %chg 1W %chg % 1.01% -Gold rose as much as 1 percent on Friday as the dollar fell after U.S. Federal Reserve officials made cautions comments on the outlook for interest rate hikes, while palladium hit a record high driven by worries about short supplies. -Spot Gold rose 0.7 percent to $1, an ounce by 13:52 p.m. EST (1852 GMT). The session high was the highest since Nov. 8 at $1, Gold has gained over 1 percent so far this week, its best in five weeks. -U.S. Gold futures settled up $8, or 0.7 percent, at $1, BRENT CLOSE 1D %chg 1W %chg % -4.87% -Oil ended slightly firmer after volatile trading on Friday, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would agree to cut output next month, though prices fell for the sixth straight week amid global oversupply concerns. -OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia is keen for the major producers to cut output by about 1.4 million barrels per day, around 1.5 percent of global supply, to support the market, sources told Reuters this week. -Brent settled up 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $66.76 a barrel. The global benchmark fell 4.6 percent in the week, the sixth consecutive decline. -U.S. crude settled unchanged at $56.46 a barrel after trading between $55.89 and $ The contract, which had its steepest one-day loss in more than three years on Tuesday, fell 5.6 percent in the week, also its sixth straight weekly decline.

5 Daily Market Report MARKET SUMMARY CENTRAL BANK OF KUWAIT INSTRUMENT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG 1D EUR % GBP % JPY % TRY % POLICY RATES INDICATOR As of Value Prior Change Dollar Idx % ON Repo Rate 18/Nov/' Brent % 1W Repo Rate 18/Nov/' WTC % 1M Repo Rate 18/Nov/' Gold % KWD ON Rate 18/Nov/' KWSE Index % Discount Rate 18/Nov/' UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES Tenor Value Tenor INDICATOR Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus ON M 2.64 Exports YY JP 18/Nov 00:50 Oct SW M 2.86 CPI MM* KW 19/Nov 00:00 Oct M Y 3.12 Trade Balance Total Yen JP 18/Nov 00:50 Oct M 2.45 Build Permits: Change MM US 20/Nov 14:30 Oct 1.7 House Starts MM: Change US 20/Nov 14:30 Oct -5.3 KIBOR RATES KWD (CBK FIX) CLOSE LIBOR RATES OTHER C-BANK RATES 1D %chg 0.00% INDICATOR As of Value Prior Change FED Target Rate 26/Sep/' Tenor Value Tenor Value ECB Refinancing Rate 10/Mar/' ON M 2.13 BOE Bank Rate 02/Aug/' SW M 2.38 BOJ Prime Rate 10/Jul/' M Y 2.63 TRY ON Lending Rate 21/Sep/' Value

6 Economic Calendar & News ECONOMIC CALENDAR - Upcoming shortly INDICATOR Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus Exports YY JP 18/Nov 00:50 Oct Imports YY JP 18/Nov 00:50 Oct Trade Balance Total Yen JP 18/Nov 00:50 Oct CPI MM* KW 19/Nov 00:00 Oct CPI YY* KW 19/Nov 00:00 Oct 0.3 Current Account NSA,EUR EU 19/Nov 10:00 Sep 20.5 Current Account SA, EUR EU 19/Nov 10:00 Sep 23.9 Construction Output MM* EU 19/Nov 11:00 Sep NAHB Housing Market Indx US 19/Nov 16:00 Nov Export Corn Inspected US 19/Nov 17:00 w/e Exp Soybean Inspected US 19/Nov 17:00 w/e Export Wheat Inspected US 19/Nov 17:00 w/e CBI Trends - Orders GB 20/Nov 12:00 Nov Building Permits: Number US 20/Nov 14:30 Oct Build Permits: Change MM US 20/Nov 14:30 Oct 1.7 Housing Starts Number US 20/Nov 14:30 Oct House Starts MM: Change US 20/Nov 14:30 Oct API Cushing number US 20/Nov 22:30 w/e API weekly crude stocks US 20/Nov 22:30 w/e API weekly dist. stocks US 20/Nov 22:30 w/e API weekly gasoline stk US 20/Nov 22:30 w/e API weekly heating oil US 20/Nov 22:30 w/e NEWS AND STREET BUZZ Global Top News -The U.S. dollar weakened and Treasury yields slid on Friday after a top Federal Reserve official said U.S. interest rates were near a neutral rate, while the S&P 500 ended positive after a seesaw session helped by optimism over U.S.-China trade ties. -Saudi Arabia's stock market fell sharply on Wednesday as tumbling oil prices provoked broad selling of blue chips, while Qatar dived after MSCI excluded two of its major stocks in a semiannual index review. -Britain crashing out of the European Union without a divorce deal would have disastrous consequences for companies and workers in Britain and across Europe, the head of the BDI German Federation of Industry said on Saturday. -Investors will get a glimpse of consumer health next week as the holiday shopping season gets under way with Black Friday sales, and a solid start could help equities steady after several tumultuous weeks. -Saudi Arabian budget airline flyadeal aims to decide whether to order Airbus or Boeing narrowbody jets by the end of this month, its chief executive said on Wednesday. -Oman's securities regulator said on Wednesday it has suspended audit firm KPMG from doing new work for a year after finding major financial and accounting irregularities at some listed companies. -Turkey has rolled back some restrictions on the use of foreign currencies that were brought in at the height of an economic crisis this year, according to a decree published on Friday, loosening the rules after lobbying from the hotel industry. -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he may not impose more tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing sent the United States a list of measures it was willing to take to resolve trade tensions, although he added it was unacceptable that some major items were omitted from the list. -Investors will get a glimpse of consumer health next week as the holiday shopping season gets under way with Black Friday sales, and a solid start could help equities steady after several tumultuous weeks.

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