FX & Markets Weekly. Week 42/2017. Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 42/2017 Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

2 USD appreciates on strong Empire State Survey The U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Survey of General Business conditions rose to an 8-year high, reaching 30,2 in October, up from 24,4. Consensus was estimating a decline to 20,4. The survey s key components improved or remained at elevated levels. Both the shipments (+11,3 to 27,5) and employment (+5,0 to 15,6) subindices increased, and the new orders component pulled back to a still-solid level (-6,9 to 18,0). The prices paid index pulled back to 27,3 after hitting a 7-month high of 35,8 in September. EUR/USD closed the past week at 1,1820 but fell to 1,1730 this week, and is currently trading slightly below 1,18. The options markets are already covering the ECB monetary policy committee on October 26. EUR/USD 1 week ATM option vols rose to their highest since September 20. Recent Governing Council members speeches indicated a reduction of the monthly asset purchases. The ECB s initial tapering round in April, which reduced monthly asset purchases by EUR 20bn to EUR 60bn helped to accelerate the EUR rally. Going forward, higher inflation rates in the euro area would enable the ECB to tighten monetary policy faster and hence drive the EUR higher. The main EUR risk remains Catalonia s independence from Spain. Moreover, the Fed, and financial markets are positioned for a 3rd rate hike by the Fed in China is preparing unrated sovereign bond sale Signs of strong demand are emerging for the upcoming USD syndicated sovereign bond issue by China. As no Asian nation has sold a similar bond without a rating by at least one of the three big rating companies so far. While China is planning to price only USD 2bn of debt, the sale will act as a benchmark for other Chinese borrowers. Corporations from China sold record amounts of USD bonds in Issuance is increasingly without ratings, as they take advantage of strong local investor demand for the notes. Spreads on Chinese dollar bonds have fallen 9 bps since September 21, when S&P cut China s sovereign rating to A+, and approached a decade low of about 257 basis points on Wednesday.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1792-0,23-1,76 1,37 WTI crude 51,20-0,78 0,71 7,84 EUR/TRY 4,3382 0,96 4,06 5,77 BRENT crude 57,20-0,12 2,09 14,02 EUR/CHF 1,1590 0,62 0,44 4,76 GAS oil 525,00-0,57 0,48 14,10 EUR/GBP 0, ,63 1,31-0,13 Heating oil 179,30-0,44-0,56 14,71 EUR/JPY 133,74 1,15 0,01 2,87 Natural gas 2,88-4,17-8,70-8,26 EUR/RUB 67,8715 0,30-2,19-0,86 Gold Spot 1.282,53-1,64-2,35 2,89 EUR/CNY 7,8084 0,20-0,98-0,82 Silver Spot 17,21-1,29-0,82 4,91 USD/TRY 3,678 1,17 5,92 4,42 Platinum Spot 921,17-2,63-2,52-0,81 USD/JPY 113,41 1,41 1,80 1,49 Palladium Spot 976,45-1,50 6,72 14,84 USD/RUB 57,5601 0,41-0,45-2,20 Copper 318,90 1,66 7,29 16,39 USD/CNY 6,6217 0,64 0,71-2,04 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 10/20/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,28 2,92 5,84 Austria 101,94-0,31-0,01 0,52 BIST ,23 3,10 1,74 Belgium 104,02-0,32 0,13 0,52 CAC ,46 2,57 3,41 China 99,04-0,47-0,81 3,66 DAX ,06 3,43 4,44 EFSF 116,10-0,08-0,14-0,25 Dow Jones ,48 3,55 7,39 ESM 112,77-0,17-0,15 0,00 Euro Stoxx ,11 2,35 3,11 France 96,76-0,32 0,27 0,62 FTSE ,08 3,71 0,72 Germany 97,51-0,38 0,03 0,29 HANG SENG ,04 1,28 6,53 Greece 89,78-0,14 0,15 5,28 IBEX ,27-0,60-3,16 Japan 100,55-0,12-0,38 0,03 MICEX ,36 0,62 6,36 Portugal 106,15 0,29 0,19 2,08 NASDAQ ,37 2,37 3,27 Spain 98,96-0,30-0,70 1,42 NIKKEI ,43 5,65 6,52 Russia 105,05-0,30 0,14 7,52 S&P ,63 2,43 3,88 Switzerland 112,01-0,11-0,19-0,17 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 97,33-0,97-2,89 10,96 Futures UK 102,29 0,27 0,14 1,22 Bobl 131,30-0,18 0,04 0,81 US 97,09-0,86-0,77 2,36 Bund 161,43-0,38 0,05 1,47 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 4,0078 0,98 4,90 5,16 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) ,51 9,18 64,11 WAC of CBRT (T-1) 11,96 0,17-0,33 0,17 VIX 9,89 3,95 2,15 4,28 Gold TRY / gram 151,66-0,47 3,44 7,46 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 173,393-2,52-3,80-5,04 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 12,31 1,32 5,21 8,27 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 1.116,91-0,80 0,44 5,43 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T-1) -0,360 0,28 0,28 0,55 USD Libor O/N 1,184 0,00 0,47 0,47 Euribor 1 Month -0,373-0,54 0,00 0,27 USD Libor 1M 1,238 0,10 0,19 0,87 Euribor 3 Month -0,329 0,00 0,00 0,90 USD Libor 3M 1,365 0,84 3,15 3,98 Euribor 6 Month -0,274 0,00-1,11 0,00 USD Libor 6M 1,555 1,34 5,06 6,79 Euribor 12 Month -0,183-1,11-7,02-21,19 USD Libor 12M 1,831 1,01 4,80 5,37 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,435 0,19-2,15-2,49 TRY Libor O/N 12,896-0,08 0,07 0,29 EUR Libor 1M -0,405-0,71 0,00-0,71 TRY Libor 1M 13,119 0,00 0,96 1,15 EUR Libor 3M -0,377-0,57 0,37-0,23 TRY Libor 3M 13,205 0,09 0,66 1,08 EUR Libor 6M -0,313-0,46-2,86-3,20 TRY Libor 6M 13,238 0,08 0,91 0,92 EUR Libor 12M -0,220 4,23-0,32-19,08 TRY Libor 12M 13,333 0,00 0,41 1,27

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 10/16/ :30 US Empire Manufacturing Oct /17/ :30 US Import Price Index MoM Sep 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 10/17/ :30 US Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Sep 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 10/17/ :30 US Import Price Index YoY Sep 2.6% 2.7% 2.1% 10/17/ :30 US Export Price Index MoM Sep 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 10/17/ :30 US Export Price Index YoY Sep % 2.3% 10/17/ :15 US Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.3% 0.3% -0.9% 10/17/ :15 US Capacity Utilization Sep 76.2% 76.0% 76.1% 10/19/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct k 222k 243k 10/19/ :30 US Continuing Claims Oct k 1888k 1889k 10/19/ :30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Oct /19/ :45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Oct /19/ :45 US Bloomberg Economic Expectations Oct /16/ :00 EA Trade Balance SA Aug 20.2b 21.6b 18.6b 10/16/ :00 EA Trade Balance NSA Aug 23.3b 16.1b 23.2b 10/17/ :00 EA EU27 New Car Registrations Sep % 5.6% 10/17/ :00 EA CPI MoM Sep 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 10/17/ :00 EA CPI YoY Sep F 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 10/17/ :00 EA ZEW Survey Expectations Oct /17/ :00 EA CPI Core YoY Sep F 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 10/18/ :00 EA Construction Output MoM Aug % 0.2% 10/18/ :00 EA Construction Output YoY Aug % 3.4% 10/20/ :00 EA ECB Current Account SA Aug b 25.1b 10/20/ :00 EA Current Account NSA Aug b 32.5b 10/16/ :00 TR Unemployment Rate Jul 10.4% 10.7% 10.2% 10/16/ :00 TR Central Gov't Budget Balance Sep b -0.9b 10/16/ :30 TR Expected Inflation Next 12 Mth Oct % 8.35% 10/19/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Bond Invest Oct $601m $50m 10/19/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Stock Invest Oct $5m $50m 10/16/ :00 RU Industrial Production YoY Sep 1.5% 0.9% 1.5% 10/18/ :00 RU Unemployment Rate Sep 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 10/18/ :00 RU Real Disposable Income Sep 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% 10/18/ :00 RU Real Wages YoY Sep 3.7% 2.6% 3.7% 10/18/ :00 RU Retail Sales Real MoM Sep -1.0% -0.7% 3.8% 10/18/ :00 RU Retail Sales Real YoY Sep 2.1% 3.1% 1.9% 10/18/ :00 RU PPI MoM Sep 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 10/18/ :00 RU PPI YoY Sep 4.7% 6.8% 4.7% 10/19/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Oct b 423.3b 10/20/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Oct t 9.29t

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.