Morning Update. Market Highlights 10/11/2017. Daily Sentiment ** Investment Strategy Unit

Transcription

1 Market Highlights Stocks Consolidate US equities finished the day lower, as market participants are concern over possible tax delays. The Dow Jones Index lost,4% to.46, the S&P 5 declined,8% to close at.584 while Nasdaq closed at 6.75, down,58% for the day. European shares traded lower in yesterday s session too, the DAX was lost,49% to.8, the CAC lost,6% to 5.47, while the FTSE was down,6% at In Asia this morning the Nikkei is in negative territory, down,79% at.686, while the Shanghai Composite Index is at.4 (,%) US government bonds lower US government bond prices were lower yesterday, as their yields continued to move higher on job data releases. US initial jobless claims came in at 9K as the market expected K while the previous release was 9K. The yield on the s is at,64%, the yield on the benchmark -Year Treasury added 4bps to,5%, while the yield on the s increased by 6bps to,8%. The spread between the US s and s widened to 7bps, meanwhile the spread between the US -year Treasury and the German -year bond (Bund) tightened to 98bps, as the yield on the -Year German bond settled at,7%. The itraxx Europe Crossover Index (most liquid sub-investment grade European Corporates) is at 4bps. Tax bill blues Dollar is losing ground as the proposed tax bill, would delay expected corporate tax cuts. To make matters more complicated, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated that tax cuts are about bringing jobs back to the US. The US dollar initially put a fight around the,6 level before settling at.649 while against the yen, it is now at,8 coming down from the 4 level. The dollar index (index against a basket of six major currencies) is at Sterling against the dollar is at,57 while against the euro is at,885. Crude Oil firms It is expected that crude oil s recent price rally will add more US oil rigs and increase US oil production, but market participants appear complacent with crude s current level, now trading at $57,. Gold inched up higher at $.86. Investment Strategy Unit Georgios Lampros, Manager Tel:89 georgios.lampros@bankofcyprus.com Tasos Hadjinicolaou, Head Tel:85 tasos.hadjinicolaou@bankofcyprus.com Dr Marios Soupashis, Senior Officer Tel:848 marios.soupashis@bankofcyprus.com Achilleas Petrides, Officer Tel:856 achilleas.petrides@bankofcyprus.com Daily Sentiment ** Unchanged 4 Decline Advance 5 Key events/data today: FR Industrial Production MoM, FR Industrial Production YoY, US U. of Mich. Sentiment. Bonds Equity Major Performances Equity Last Price d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW 5Y CHG S&P 5 584,6 -,8%,8% 5,45% 597, 5,7 87,% DAX 8,6 -,49% -,9% 4,8% 55,56 4,59 84,% FTSE 7484, -,6% -,94% 4,78% 7598, ,74 9,7% Shanghai 4,,7%,7%,5% 46,59 6,5 65,75% Nikkei 68,4 -,8%,6% 8,66% 8,5 656,66 58,99% Bonds Last Yld d Chg Bps YTD Chg Bps YTD LOW YTD HIGH US Y Yield,59 -,579,694 German Y Yield, ,89,68 Currencies Last Price d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW 5Y CHG EURUSD,648,4%,4%,74%,9,4-8,9% USDJPY,44 -,% -,54% -,8% 8,66 6,4 4,7% GBPUSD,49,4%,56% 6,56%,657,986-7,7% Commodities Last Price d Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW 5Y CHG Gold Spot $/Oz 85,44,%,%,% 57,6,89-5,74% Crude Oil WTI 57, -,4%,6%,5% 58,44 4,8-4,5%

2 Equity Markets Major Indices Performance S&P 5 Index Index Last Price D Chg % YTD Chg % 5 YR Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW S&P 5 INDEX 584,6 -,8% 5,45% 87% 597, 5, DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 46,9 -,4% 8,7% 8% 6, 86, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 675, -,58% 5,9% % 6795,5 545, DAX INDEX 8,6 -,49% 4,8% 84% 55,6 4,6 CAC 4 INDEX 547,8 -,6%,% 58% 556,4 447,4 FTSE INDEX 7484, -,6% 4,78% % 7599, 6678,7 MSCI WORLD 4,4 -,4% 6,6% 6% 54, 688,8 SWISS MARKET INDEX 977,8 -,95%,65% 7% 97,7 7695,6 SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 4,,7%,5% 66% 46,6 6,5 NIKKEI 5 68,4 -,8% 8,66% 59% 8, 656,7 HANG SENG INDEX 99,,%,45% 6% 97,9 488,8 MICEX INDEX 8,6,95% -,% 56% 94, 774,6 Athex Composite Share Pr 74, -,% 5,5% -8% 859,8 578, GENERAL MARKET INDEX CS 7,,9%,4% -45% 79, 6, Top S&P 5 Movers VIX Index Company Last Price D Chg % 5d Chg % YTD Chg % Volume COTY INC-CL 6,8,8% 6,% -8,% MACY'S INC 9,5,%,8% -45,5%.8.9 PERRIGO CO P 87,99 8,4% 8,% 5,7%.7.9 MACERICH CO 6,4 6,%,% -,9%.7.47 SIGNET JEWEL 7,85 5,% 6,7% -4,8% MATTEL INC,9 4,7% 6,8% -49,4% NORDSTROM IN 4, 4,5%,7% -6,5% 95.9 MEDTRONIC PL 8,8,9%,8%,4%.7.8 ENVISION HEA 5,7,8% -5,6% -59,%.. CHESAPEAKE E 4,,5%,% -4,5% Bank of Cyprus LSE & CSE Info BOC London BOC Cyprus Last Price,75,78 Day chg % -,48%,8% 5 Day chg % -5,8% -,4% Since Listing -4,6% -,66% 5 Week High,65,46 5 Week Low,55,55 Daily Turnover Volume in Shares Market Cap Shares Out. Mil 446, 446, Tier Capital Note BOC Tier Bond ISIN XS Bid Price 9, Ask Price,6 Yield to Call (Mid) 6,48% Currency EUR Coupon 9,5% Maturity 9//7 Next Call Date 9// Min Piece Amt Outstanding 5MM

3 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Dec-5 Jun-6 Dec-6 Jun-7 Fixed Income Government Bonds Major Government Yields US Yr & German Yr Yields CNTRY YR 5 YR YR YR USA,64%,%,6%,84% UK,45%,7%,6%,8% GERMANY -,76% -,6%,7%,6% FRANCE -,6% -,%,75%,74% ITALY -,%,58%,8%,% SPAIN -,4%,%,5%,8% PORTUGAL -,4%,68%,%,6% IRELAND -,6%,59% GREECE 5,4% JAPAN -,% -,%,%,8% RUSSIA 7,7% 7,44% 7,6% US Yield Curve US YR German YR,5,5 %,5 -,5 US Yr & German Yr Spread Current Yields Year Ago,5,5 %,5,5 %, Years,5 Fixed Income Corporate Bonds Credit Default Swaps ITraxx Europe & ITraxx Crossover Name Last Price d d Chg bp YTD Chg bp 5Y Chg bp 5 HIGH 5 LOW US Investment Grade 55,95,9 -,6-5,8 78,7 5,7 US High Yield 9,6 7, -6, n/a 4, 5,9 Europe 5,,4-9, -78,6 8,58 48,88 Europe Crrossover 4,9 9, -44,6-9,8 56,6 8,94 Japan 47,98, -7, -5, 57, 9,7 Asia ex japan 78,5, -7, -45,5,4 7, Europe Xover

4 Fixed Income Cyprus Government Bonds Outstanding Cyprus Bonds Cyprus 4.5% 5 Bond Yield,8,6,4,,8,6,4,,8,6,4 Oct-6 Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Foreign Exchange Major Pairs /$,,8,6,4,,,8,6,4, ISIN Last Price Yld Yld % d Chg bp Coupon Maturity XS887 7,6,% -,7 4,75% XS ,58,9% -,5 4,6% XS7479 4,4,66% -,,88% XS ,,97% -,,75% XS ,77,% -,,75% 5/6/9 // 6/5/ 6/7/ 7/6/4 XS494,67,48% -, 4,5% 4//5 Rating Moody's Fitch S&P Cyprus Ba BB BB+ Pair Last Price d d Chg % YTD Chg % 5y Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW EURUSD,648,5%,75% -8,9%,9,4 EURGBP,88587,4%,79%,79%,967,848 EURRUB 69,589,8% 6,7% 7,% 7,5 59,445 EURJPY,4,% 7,46%,77% 4,5 4,85 EURCHF,587,9% 8,% -,96%,76,6 USDJPY,44 -,% -,% 4,7% 8,66 6,4 GBPUSD,49,% 6,56% -7,7%,657,986 USDCHF,9944,4% -,4% 4,8%,44,94 AUDUSD,7688,% 6,66% -5,98%,85,76 USDCNY 6,676 -,4% -4,4% 6,% 6,9649 6,49 USDRUB 59,95,% -,64% 87,79% 66,874 55,78 USDCAD,669 -,% -5,74% 6,49%,79,6 / $ Index,95 6,9,85 4,8 98,75, ,65 9 4

5 Morning Update Commodities Commodities Table Crude Oil Spot ($ per barrel) Energy Last Price d d Chg % YTD Chg % 5y Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW Crude Oil 57,9 -,4% 6,7% -,67% 57,9 4,5 Brent Oil 6,8 -,7%,% -4,66% 64,65 4,57 Casoline 8, -,6% 8,89% -,8% 7,5 6,8 Heating Oil 94,5 -,9% 4,% -5,8% 95,7 5,4 Natural Gas,,6% -,5% -8,8%,99,5 Metals Last Price d d Chg % YTD Chg % 5y Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW Gold 85,55,%,56% -5,75% 57,64, Silver 7,8,4% 6,88% -47,78% 8,85 5,9 Platinum,74 -,% 48,4% 66,58% 6,95 65,4 Copper 9,45,8%,5% -,9% 5,95 4,6 Agriculture Last Price d d Chg % YTD Chg % 5y Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW Corn 4,5,% -,98% -5,77% 94,5 8,5 Soybeans 976,5,% -,% -,75% 8 9,5 Coffee 6,4,5% -7,77% -5,68% 7,899994, Gold Spot ($ per oz) Alternatives Major Hedge Fund Strategies Global Hedge Fund Index Index Last Price d d Chg % YTD Chg % 5y Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW Macro 56,4,%,%,6% 56,6 46,67 Macro CTA 65,65 -,%,67%,5% 66,5 4,89 Event Driven 654,79 -,6% 5,78%,9% 67,4 5,4 Market Neutral,8,%,6% 9,6% 4,76 98,5 Global Hedge Fund 65,5 -,8% 5,%,68% 7,8 84,76 Equity Hedge 46,86 -,5% 7,9%,45% 54,76 45,65 Credit 4,5 -,%,57%,46% 47,75 99,79 Convertible Arb 79,8 -,% 6,49% 4,8% 79,5 75,8 M&A 847, -,5%,9% 4,86% 849,76 788,59 Absolute Return 65,95 -,4%,65%,9% 68,5,

6 Shipping Shipping Indices Baltic Dry Index & Baltic Dirty Index Index Last Price d d Chg % YTD Chg % 5y Chg % 5 HIGH 5 LOW Baltic Dry 48 -,4% 54,% 57,55% Handysize 648 -,9% 8,54% 59,% Clean Tanker 546,7% -9,47% -,% Dirty tanker 8 -,6% -,7% 7,94% Panamax 468 -,% 7,%,% Supramax 96 -,6% Baltic Dry Dirty Tanker **Daily Market Sentiment Equity S&P 5 7% DAX % Range Score >.5% 5 <.5%>.5% 4 <,5%>-,5% <-,5%>-,5% >-,5% Bonds US Y Yield 7% German Y Yield % Range Score > <>5 <5>-5 <-5>- 4 >- 5 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER Bank of Cyprus Group, Investment Strategy Unit Tel: , 856, 859, 848 Fax Postal Address: P.O. Box 47, Nicosia 599, Cyprus This report is intended for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. It is recommended that investors independently evaluate particular strategies and consult a financial adviser before proceeding to the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Note also that past performance may not be a reliable indicator of future results, while financial forecasts may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. This report has been compiled based on information obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but their accuracy, completeness, or correctness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The company, and/ or its affiliated companies or persons connected with it and/or directors and/or employees and/or clients may have a position, or engage in transactions in any of the securities mentioned herein or any related investment, or solicit business from any company mentioned in this report. Report Bank of Cyprus. All rights reserved. 6