FX & Markets Weekly. Week 19/2016. DenizBank AG Economic Research Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 19/2016 DenizBank AG Economic Research Vienna, Austria

2 European Equities see outflows for 14 th week European equities saw USD 3,9bn in net outflows in week to May 11, EPFR data shows. This was the 14 th consecutive week of net outflows, the longest streak since February Also U.S. stocks saw outflows in 4 of the past 5 weeks (USD 2,2bn this week). Inflows were in fixed income as investment grade bond funds saw USD 3,2bn inflows, marking the 10 th straight week of net inflows. BIST stabilises after past week s shock The week ending May 6 saw the BIST 100 declining over 8% as the Turkish Prime Minister stepped down surprisingly. The index stabilized above key resistance levels and this week, and is still up over 9% year-to-date. The now attractive cross rates against the TRY will prompt foreign inflows so that we assume the sentiment is not going to turn bearish against Turkish equities. BoE stays put, warns of Brexit effects The Bank of England was unanimous in its decision to leave monetary policy unchanged, but Governor Carney warned of negative Brexit effects. UK Leaving the EU would give the BoE a challenging trade-off associated with weaker GDP growth and higher inflation. In its base case the BoE assumes the UK votes to remain in the EU. The accompanying inflation report gave little forward guidance on rates. USD remains vulnerable The series of weak economic data out of the U.S. is continuing and has caused the EUR/USD to reach even 1,16 in intraday trading on May 3. Currently, a lot of range bound trading with no clear direction is going on. Key resistance levels are 1,13 and 1,1430. AUD caught up in Dutch disease In the case of AUD, Australian May inflation falling from 3,6% y/y to 3,2% y/y, highlights the dilemma of commodityproducing countries caught up in the Dutch Disease. Australia's past commodity boom allowed high wage increases within the mining sector, but now as this sector consolidates, employment shifts from high-income to low-income sectors. Smaller wage increases do not only affect disposable income growth. Price expectations fall as well along with the shift in consumer behaviour. The RBA will take notice and is likely to accommodate monetary conditions further.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1315-0,82 0,20 1,38 WTI crude 46,17 3,54 7,51 31,21 EUR/TRY 3,3587 0,58 4,40 2,04 BRENT crude 47,55 4,98 7,74 34,17 EUR/CHF 1,1030-0,55 1,22 0,15 GAS oil 413,75 3,30 8,92 26,81 EUR/GBP 0, ,43-0,80 1,90 Heating oil 138,38 3,66 8,74 25,31 EUR/JPY 123,55 1,22 0,32-3,33 Natural gas 2,09-0,29-1,13-3,14 EUR/RUB 73,9742-1,30-1,11-14,78 Gold Spot 1.266,11-1,89 1,46 4,58 EUR/CNY 7,3877-0,42 1,05 2,06 Silver Spot 16,93-3,31 3,74 10,19 USD/TRY 2,9674 1,31 4,19 0,66 Platinum Spot 1.043,55-3,46 4,18 11,32 USD/JPY 109,19 2,06 0,11-4,65 Palladium Spot 593,75-2,35 9,38 15,65 USD/RUB 65,3773-1,32-1,31-15,94 Copper 207,70-3,64-4,62 2,02 USD/CNY 6,5297 0,52 0,80 0,52 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 05/13/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,75-4,08 8,20 Austria 122,89 0,08-0,16-0,10 BIST ,13-8,68 10,33 Belgium 115,71 0,11-0,26 0,03 CAC ,08-4,29 7,58 China 107,82 0,42 0,05 2,80 DAX ,41-1,15 10,52 EFSF 121,27-0,02-0,22-0,20 Dow Jones (T-1) ,34-1,05 10,93 ESM 115,54 0,03-0,09 0,04 Euro Stoxx ,17-3,20 6,74 France 114,72-0,01-0,28-0,03 FTSE ,49-4,20 6,79 Germany 111,81-0,06-0,25-0,23 HANG SENG ,94-6,80 7,64 Greece 78,16 5,78 12,72 7,56 IBEX ,15-1,49 9,70 Japan 106,91-0,04 0,01-0,24 MICEX ,71-2,06 9,67 Portugal 114,85 0,55 0,68 2,71 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,77-4,65 8,05 Spain 129,03-0,31-0,88 0,92 NIKKEI ,90 0,19 9,76 Russia 94,50 0,80 1,85 8,94 S&P 500 (T-1) ,66-0,88 10,69 Switzerland 131,76 0,06-0,43-0,64 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 87,15-0,71-1,30 10,89 Futures UK 104,68 0,15 0,04 0,98 Bobl 131,36-0,03-0,01 0,37 US 100,89 0,05-0,03 1,48 Bund 163,81 0,01 0,05 1,25 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,1623 0,78 4,28 1,37 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) 579-9,81 2,12 98,97 WAC of CBRT 8,49-1,16-2,97-5,67 VIX 14,55-0,54 5,78-42,36 Gold TRY / gram 120,79-0,61 5,71 3,41 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 266,567-0,08 8,73-12,05 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 9,76 0,83 2,52-11,91 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 806,68 0,17-4,44 13,42 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,342-0,29-0,29-42,50 USD Libor O/N 0,386 0,13 1,39 3,96 Euribor 1 Month -0,349-0,29-2,05-45,42 USD Libor 1M 0,434-0,90 0,28 0,80 Euribor 3 Month -0,257-0,39-3,21-40,44 USD Libor 3M 0,628-0,32-0,12 1,52 Euribor 6 Month -0,144 0,00-4,35-24,14 USD Libor 6M 0,907-0,03 0,86 5,72 Euribor 12 Month -0,012 7,69 7,69-33,33 USD Libor 12M 1,229 0,39 0,93 10,16 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,396-0,36-1,58-39,55 TRY Libor O/N 10,250 0,00-4,74-6,95 EUR Libor 1M -0,351 0,20-3,58-41,32 TRY Libor 1M 10,350-0,05-4,25-10,92 EUR Libor 3M -0,275 0,26-5,88-36,28 TRY Libor 3M 10,443 0,11-4,55-10,29 EUR Libor 6M -0,163-4,10-10,00-33,02 TRY Libor 6M 10,459 0,00-5,07-10,87 EUR Libor 12M -0,033-12,13-23,55-89,33 TRY Libor 12M 10,504 0,06-5,28-10,86

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 05/02/ :45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr F /02/ :00 US ISM Manufacturing Apr /04/ :15 US ADP Employment Change Apr 195k 156k 200k 05/04/ :30 US Trade Balance Mar -$41.2b -$40.4b -$47.1b 05/04/ :30 US Unit Labor Costs 1Q P 3.3% 4.1% 3.3% 05/06/ :30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 200k 160k 215k 05/06/ :30 US Unemployment Rate Apr 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 05/12/ :30 US Import Price Index MoM Apr 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 05/12/ :30 US Import Price Index YoY Apr -5.4% -5.7% -6.2% 05/12/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims May 7 270k 294k 274k 05/13/ :30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Apr 0.8% 1.3% -0.3% 05/13/ :30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Apr 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% 05/02/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr F /03/ :00 EU PPI MoM Mar 0.0% 0.3% -0.7% 05/03/ :00 EU PPI YoY Mar -4.3% -4.2% -4.2% 05/04/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Apr F /04/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Apr F /06/ :10 EU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Apr /09/ :30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence May /12/ :00 EU Industrial Production SA MoM Mar 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 05/12/ :00 EU Industrial Production WDA YoY Mar 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 05/13/ :00 EU GDP SA QoQ 1Q P 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 05/13/ :00 EU GDP SA YoY 1Q P 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 05/02/ :00 TR Markit/ISO Turkey PMI Mfg Apr /03/ :00 TR CPI MoM Apr 1.02% 0.78% -0.04% 05/03/ :00 TR CPI YoY Apr 6.90% 6.57% 7.46% 05/03/ :00 TR CPI Core Index YoY Apr 9.20% 9.41% 9.51% 05/03/ :00 TR PPI MoM Apr 0.43% 0.52% 0.40% 05/03/ :00 TR PPI YoY Apr 2.78% 2.87% 3.80% 05/09/ :00 TR Industrial Production MoM Mar 0.1% -0.5% 0.5% 05/09/ :00 TR Industrial Production YoY Mar 3.6% 2.9% 5.8% 05/10/ :00 TR Current Account Balance Mar -3.85b -3.68b -1.79b 05/05/ :00 RU CPI MoM Apr 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 05/05/ :00 RU CPI YoY Apr 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 05/06/ :00 RU Markit Russia PMI Services Apr /06/ :00 RU Markit Russia PMI Composite Apr /11/ :00 RU Official Reserve Assets Apr 388.0b 391.5b 387.0b 05/12/ :00 RU Trade Balance Mar 8.0b 7.7b 7.4b

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.