FX & Markets Weekly. Week 37/2016. DenizBank AG Economic Research Vienna, Austria
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1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 37/2016 DenizBank AG Economic Research Vienna, Austria
2 UST yield curve steepens Incoming economic data continuously disappoints on the downside (inflation, labor market) Moreover economic slack has been larger than expected and foreign economies matter to the outlook. That brings FOMC speakers to renew their dovish stance. Lael Brainard, voting member and the last FOMC speaker before the silent period into the FOMC sounded very dovish. She said the case for tightening monetary policy is less compelling, and called for prudence in removing monetary policy accommodation. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened as traders trimmed bets on a September rate hike. It was the pace of the steepening though, which was remarkable. The last time the yield curve steepened this quickly was in August Back then, primary dealers were selling billions in 30 year bonds to the Fed as part of its bond buying programme. In terms of Fed Funds Futures implied probabilities. Markets are currently pricing in only 18% probability of a ¼ point hike to the Federal Funds Target Range for Wednesday, and a 49,7% chance for December. FX traders turn net long CANZ currencies This week, active currency traders reduced their net USD longs in favour of mostly AUD, followed by NZD and even CAD which has the highest correlation to the USD among these currencies. That is visible on an indicator we are tracking which infers positioning of active currency traders from exchange rates and the FX managers returns. Apart from the dovish Fed it is possible to link these movements to the informal Brexit related negotiations. Informal because 50 of the Lisbon treaty has not been pulled yet by Theresa May. But informal talks on a CAN- ZUK Union that is based upon free trade, free movement of labor force and mutual defence are being held. Central Bank of Russia cuts Key Rate Central Bank of Russia under Governor Nabiullina decided to lower its key rate by 50bps to 10,0% today, along with all other rates it uses on major operations. In fact consumer price inflation had eased in September to 6,6%, down from 7,2% in July (CPI figures are calculated and released even on a weekly basis in Russia). In its press release the Central Bank pledged to keep it unchanged until year-end, and to potentially reduce it further in 2017 Q1-Q2. Remember, the key rate came down from its emergency highs of 17% in January December 2014 it had been raised by 650bps in an emergency overnight move. Back then O/N Mosprime was fixed at 27,3%, and Ruonia at 23,6%.
3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1180-0,53-0,84-0,29 WTI crude 42,95-6,67-9,32-10,19 EUR/TRY 3,3321-0,11 0,96 1,29 BRENT crude 45,68-5,06-7,88-5,96 EUR/CHF 1,0926-0,27 0,69 0,82 GAS oil 408,50-4,68-6,21-6,21 EUR/GBP 0, ,63-1,44 7,79 Heating oil 140,04-2,32-5,68-4,28 EUR/JPY 114,09-1,10 0,90-2,46 Natural gas 2,89 3,25 8,69 6,73 EUR/RUB 72,7307 0,06 1,35-0,63 Gold Spot 1.308,56-1,50-3,00 0,44 EUR/CNY 7,4574-0,77-0,21 1,49 Silver Spot 18,75-1,63-5,57 6,07 USD/TRY 2,9798 0,38 1,81 1,64 Platinum Spot 1.013,05-4,73-9,66 3,45 USD/JPY 102,05-0,59 1,74-2,18 Palladium Spot 657,70-2,70-6,69 22,95 USD/RUB 65,0585 0,49 2,20-0,35 Copper 215,25 2,77-1,44 4,32 USD/CNY 6,6747 0,18 0,55 1,18 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 09/16/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,97 2,06 11,10 Austria 123,21 0,04-0,51-0,32 BIST ,89-2,43-0,73 Belgium 117,18 0,04-0,32-0,27 CAC ,53-2,86 4,33 China 108,22-0,09-0,49 2,65 DAX ,58-3,52 7,85 EFSF 121,51-0,07-0,31-0,45 Dow Jones ,19-2,33 2,19 ESM 116,92-0,00-0,17-0,23 Euro Stoxx ,71-2,53 4,28 France 115,57 0,01-0,30-0,28 FTSE ,86-2,54 12,91 Germany 112,52 0,07-0,22-0,42 HANG SENG ,44 1,85 16,45 Greece 73,98-2,37-3,28 8,80 IBEX ,26 0,23 5,38 Japan 106,29 0,17-0,02-0,20 MICEX ,73 0,88 6,59 Portugal 112,38-1,87-3,40 2,98 NASDAQ ,79 0,31 8,77 Spain 131,22 0,21-0,36 0,41 NIKKEI ,63-0,47 7,03 Russia 97,30-0,31 0,86 8,32 S&P ,73-1,60 3,14 Switzerland 130,25-0,25-0,97-0,66 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 88,60 0,11 #N/A N/A 10,89 Futures UK 107,90-0,06-0,75 0,41 Bobl 131,64 0,08 0,15 0,34 US 101,30 0,21-0,39 1,41 Bund 163,92 0,15-0,06 0,66 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,1558 0,06 1,36 1,44 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) 764-3,54 11,21 27,76 WAC of CBRT 7,91 0,13-1,37-5,27 VIX 16,75-6,06 30,06-15,13 Gold TRY / gram 125,37-1,12-1,24 2,08 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 245,803 1,47 2,80-9,80 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 8,92-0,89-1,65-3,46 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 888,98-2,24-2,91 11,15 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,345-2,37 0,29-3,29 USD Libor O/N 0,420-0,27 0,64 9,06 Euribor 1 Month -0,371-0,54-0,54-4,21 USD Libor 1M 0,532 0,93 4,80 18,69 Euribor 3 Month -0,301 0,00-0,67-14,02 USD Libor 3M 0,857 0,57 6,97 32,56 Euribor 6 Month -0,201-1,52-6,35-25,63 USD Libor 6M 1,247-0,21 4,42 34,90 Euribor 12 Month -0,054 5,26-8,00-107,69 USD Libor 12M 1,545-0,76 3,12 24,74 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,402-0,21-0,39-1,66 TRY Libor O/N 8,455-0,35-3,48-13,15 EUR Libor 1M -0,374-0,31-0,69-4,14 TRY Libor 1M 8,710-0,34-4,14-10,63 EUR Libor 3M -0,321-0,67 0,22-13,15 TRY Libor 3M 9,110-0,20-1,88-7,20 EUR Libor 6M -0,208-1,04-3,04-25,37 TRY Libor 6M 9,428-0,16-0,64-5,63 EUR Libor 12M -0,073 5,02-0,40-100,38 TRY Libor 12M 9,579-0,01-1,01-4,64
4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 09/13/ :00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug /14/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug % 0.9% 09/14/ :30 US Import Price Index MoM Aug -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 09/14/ :30 US Import Price Index YoY Aug -2.2% -2.2% -3.7% 09/15/ :30 US Empire Manufacturing Sep /15/ :30 US Current Account Balance 2Q -$121.0b -$119.9b -$124.7b 09/15/ :30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% 09/15/ :30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Aug 0.2% -0.1% -0.3% 09/15/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep k 260k 259k 09/15/ :30 US Continuing Claims Sep k 2143k 2144k 09/15/ :15 US Industrial Production MoM Aug -0.2% -0.4% 0.7% 09/15/ :15 US Capacity Utilization Aug 75.7% 75.5% 75.9% 09/15/ :15 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Aug -0.3% -0.4% 0.5% 09/15/ :00 US Business Inventories Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 09/16/ :30 US CPI MoM Aug 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 09/16/ :30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 09/16/ :30 US CPI YoY Aug 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 09/16/ :30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Aug 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 09/16/ :30 US CPI Index NSA Aug /16/ :30 US CPI Core Index SA Aug /16/ :30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Aug % 1.4% 09/13/ :00 EU Employment QoQ 2Q % 0.3% 09/13/ :00 EU Employment YoY 2Q % 1.4% 09/13/ :00 EU ZEW Survey Expectations Sep /14/ :00 EU Industrial Production SA MoM Jul -1.0% -1.1% 0.6% 09/14/ :00 EU Industrial Production WDA YoY Jul -0.8% -0.5% 0.4% 09/15/ :00 EU EU27 New Car Registrations Aug % -1.4% 09/15/ :00 EU Trade Balance SA Jul 22.0b 20.0b 23.4b 09/15/ :00 EU Trade Balance NSA Jul 29.6b 25.3b 29.2b 09/15/ :00 EU CPI MoM Aug 0.1% 0.1% -0.6% 09/15/ :00 EU CPI YoY Aug F 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 09/15/ :00 EU CPI Core YoY Aug F 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 09/16/ :00 EU Labour Costs YoY 2Q % 1.7% 09/12/ :00 RU Budget Balance YTD Aug b b b 09/14/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD Sept % 3.9% 09/14/ :00 RU CPI WoW Sep % 0.0% 09/15/ :00 RU Industrial Production YoY Aug 0.6% 0.7% -0.3% 09/15/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Sep b 394.3b 09/16/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Sep t 8.57t 09/16/ :30 RU Key Rate Sep % 10.00% 10.50% 09/16/ :00 RU PPI MoM Aug 0.2% -1.4% 0.2% 09/16/ :00 RU PPI YoY Aug 4.5% 3.1% 4.5%
5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.
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