FX & Markets Weekly. Week 39/2015. DenizBank AG Economic Research and Development Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 39/2015 DenizBank AG Economic Research and Development Vienna, Austria

2 French OATs resist Moody s downgrade Last Friday Moody s downgraded France s sovereign rating by 1 notch and issued a very pessimistic comment: continuing weakness in France s medium term growth outlook, which Moody s expects will extend through the remainder of this decade. However, yields on French sovereign bonds (OATs) up to 1-years even declined. As you know, the ECB is actively purchasing sovereign bonds. Currently the QE is more relevant to markets than a downgrade. Fitch affirmed Turkey at BBB-, outlook stable Last Friday night Fitch affirmed Turkey at BBB- with a stable outlook and issued a friendly statement: general government balance sheet is strong. Fiscal discipline has been maintained through the electoral period. Fitch forecasts a general government primary surplus of 1,1% of GDP in 2015, unchanged from General government debt to GDP is forecast to maintain its downward trend, and is expected to hit 30% at YE2017. That compares with a BBB-country median of 43,1%. Meanwhile the Central Bank of Turkey kept its main refinancing rates unchanged. USD gains as Yellen says liftoff still possible in 2015 After leaving the federal funds target rate unchanged last week, Fed Chair Yellen signalled in a speech this week, that a lift-off this year is still possible. Most FOMC participants, including myself currently anticipate an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace thereafter. But if the economy surprises us, our judgements about appropriate monetary policy will change. Yellen talked the USD down as she needs a weaker USD to get higher inflation. A stronger USD would decrease import prices and hence lower inflation. Another driver of USD upward momentum was the third 2Q15 GDP release. U.S. 2Q15 GDP was revised up by 0,2ppt to 3,9% thanks to consumer spending that grew more than expected (+3,6% vs. 3,2% consensus estimates). Palladium surges on VW s faked test results Volkswagen admitted to have faked emission test results on diesel cars. This information caused a drop in the preferred shares of the carmaker of over 37% in 3 days. Investors in commodities assumed that this news would increase the amount of petrol cars sold. As palladium is used in catalytic converters of petrol cars, palladium climbed by 7,7% this week. Should the price of 1 ounce palladium sustainably pass its 100- day simple moving average, we would speak of a bull market for Palladium.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1173-1,06-2,14-0,25 WTI crude 45,83 1,49 14,37-24,55 EUR/TRY 3,4002 0,21 1,62 14,32 BRENT crude 48,58 2,21 10,12-25,25 EUR/CHF 1,0920-0,26 0,91 4,06 GAS oil 472,75 1,12 7,95-19,25 EUR/GBP 0, ,19 1,10 3,32 Heating oil 153,19 2,60 8,41-19,53 EUR/JPY 134,98-0,38-1,45-2,53 Natural gas 2,56-1,92-5,19-12,05 EUR/RUB 73,1991-2,52-6,84 19,53 Gold Spot 1.144,70 0,48 0,62-2,43 EUR/CNY 7,0989-2,46-4,04 2,01 Silver Spot 15,13-0,41 2,92-4,82 USD/TRY 3,0426 1,26 3,84 14,67 Platinum Spot 947,77-3,58-3,21-12,60 USD/JPY 120,82 0,66 0,70-2,28 Palladium Spot 665,10 9,24 22,41-2,59 USD/RUB 65,5284-1,47-4,80 19,83 Copper 228,60-4,21-0,65-12,95 USD/CNY 6,3745 0,16-0,60 2,66 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 09/25/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,46-3,48-11,66 Austria 120,75-0,05 0,75 0,44 BIST 100 (T-2) ,62 4,58-11,33 Belgium 112,49 0,06 1,10 0,59 CAC ,97-1,60-10,91 China 105,07-0,02 1,28 3,15 DAX ,22-4,27-15,49 EFSF 119,65-0,02-0,23 0,35 Dow Jones ,08 4,67-8,34 ESM 111,56 0,02-0,26 0,64 Euro Stoxx ,21-3,08-13,62 France 112,02-0,05 0,78 0,51 FTSE ,12 0,25-10,45 Germany 108,79 0,11 0,48 0,29 HANG SENG ,35-1,02-21,95 Greece 71,78-0,18 8,35 8,53 IBEX ,07-5,64-15,59 Japan 105,00-0,03 0,54 0,10 MICEX ,17-1,12 0,46 Portugal 120,00-0,33 0,88 2,21 NASDAQ ,74 6,86-4,92 Spain 125,94-0,66 0,34 1,61 NIKKEI ,81 0,41-13,92 Russia 84,90 1,62 3,54 11,05 S&P ,62 4,19-7,44 Switzerland 132,33 0,19-0,48-0,35 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey (T-2) 81,90-0,49-2,50-7,87 Futures UK 101,38-0,07 0,50 1,54 Bobl 128,90 0,11 0,44 1,15 US 98,17-0,17-0,31 1,90 Bund 155,49 0,25 1,13 3,01 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,2212 0,50 2,65 14,48 Baltic Dry Index 922 4,42-2,12 11,22 WAC of CBRT 8,96 1,24 1,93 5,91 VIX 22,01-1,35-38,98 56,89 Gold TRY / gram 111,97 1,75 4,48 11,88 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 310,994 13,76 12,33 43,38 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 11,39 0,18 2,34 15,28 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 785,68-5,32-0,36-20,49 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,143-3,62-13,49-28,83 USD Libor O/N 0,135-2,18 1,51 8,03 Euribor 1 Month -0,111-8,82-15,63-68,18 USD Libor 1M 0,194-0,77-1,74 4,46 Euribor 3 Month -0,041-10,81-24,24-173,33 USD Libor 3M 0,326 2,16-0,28 15,64 Euribor 6 Month 0,030-16,67-26,83-38,78 USD Libor 6M 0,536 1,84 2,54 19,92 Euribor 12 Month 0,146-5,20-9,32-9,88 USD Libor 12M 0,861 4,40 4,05 11,19 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,180 0,00 0,00-0,80 TRY Libor O/N 11,070 0,00 0,02 0,81 EUR Libor 1M -0,119-3,10-12,92-48,21 TRY Libor 1M 11,690 0,04 0,05 6,07 EUR Libor 3M -0,041-3,58-48,71-176,20 TRY Libor 3M 11,691-0,03 0,05 5,57 EUR Libor 6M 0,016-30,29-67,97-70,88 TRY Libor 6M 11,714-0,05 0,25 5,82 EUR Libor 12M 0,131-6,35-16,59-22,79 TRY Libor 12M 11,744 0,05 0,51 6,09

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 09/21/ :00 US Existing Home Sales Aug 5.50m 5.31m 5.59m 09/21/ :00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Aug -1.6% -4.8% 2.0% 09/22/ :00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Jul 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 09/22/ :00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep /23/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep % -7.0% 09/23/ :45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep P /24/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug /24/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep k 267k 264k 09/24/ :30 US Continuing Claims Sep k 2242k 2237k 09/24/ :30 US Durable Goods Orders Aug -2.3% -2.0% 2.0% 09/24/ :30 US Durables Ex Transportation Aug 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 09/24/ :30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug -0.2% -0.2% 2.2% 09/24/ :30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug 0.5% -0.2% 0.6% 09/24/ :45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Sep /24/ :00 US New Home Sales Aug 515k 552k 507k 09/24/ :00 US New Home Sales MoM Aug 1.6% 5.7% 5.4% 09/24/ :00 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Sep /25/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 09/25/ :30 US Personal Consumption 2Q T 3.2% 3.6% 3.1% 09/25/ :30 US GDP Price Index 2Q T 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 09/25/ :30 US Core PCE QoQ 2Q T 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 09/25/ :45 US Markit US Composite PMI Sep P /25/ :45 US Markit US Services PMI Sep P /25/ :00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F /25/ :00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Sep F /25/ :00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Sep F /25/ :00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Sep F % 2.9% 09/25/ :00 US U. of Mich Yr Inflation Sep F % 2.8% 09/22/ :00 EU Consumer Confidence Sep A /23/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep P /23/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep P /23/ :00 EU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep P /25/ :00 EU M3 Money Supply YoY Aug 5.3% 4.8% 5.3% 09/25/ :00 EU M3 3-month average Aug 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 09/23/ :00 RU CPI WoW Sep % 0.1% 09/23/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD Sep % 10.1% 09/24/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Sep b 365.1b 09/25/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Sep t 8.19t 09/21/ :00 TR Consumer Confidence Index Sep /22/ :00 TR Benchmark Repurchase Rate Sep % 7.50% 7.50% 09/22/ :00 TR Overnight Lending Rate Sep % 10.75% 10.75% 09/22/ :00 TR Overnight Borrowing Rate Sep % 7.25% 7.25%

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research and Development Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu; Members of the Supervisory Board: Sergey Gorkov, Hakan Ates, Dr. Kurt Heindl, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.