FX & Markets Weekly. Week 6/2017. Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 6/2017 Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

2 Gold resumes upward trend, targets USD 1264/oz Gold prices rose for a 2 nd week extending year-to-date performance to +6,77%. The year started well for the precious metal as a weekly rising trend on closing basis was only interrupted once in 7 weeks. The past 2 weeks proved that down week as an outlier. Reasons for the rise of gold are various. A rise in inflation as well as in future inflation expectations, as well as the rising geopolitical risks, and political risks including rising populist sentiment in Europe, and protectionist sentiment in the U.S., along with policy uncertainty associated with the incoming U.S. administration. ETF buying has resumed in 2016, after 3 years of liquidation. Once real money names follow smart money the trend will gain more momentum. Charttechnically USD 1221 is a support level and USD 1264 a resistance but also a target price. The week of the lira Recent measures of TCMB (Central Bank of Turkey) showed clear impact this week as TRY rose against all majors in our basket, appreciating 1,95% against EUR e.g., and extending 1 month performance to 2,01%. Year-to-date EUR is still up 5,59% against TRY. Also in the Emerging Markets basket lira was the leader only outperformed by INR (Indian Rupee) this week. Chart-technical target level for EUR/TRY is 3,86 and USD/TRY is 3,64. From an economic perspective Turkey REER (real effective exchange rate) hit its historical low at 88,17 in January, down from 92,13 in December. The central bank is expected to keep its tight liquidity stance until it sees more sustained improvement. French-German 10Y spread hits highest since 2012 Increased political risks in France drove investors out of French sovereign bonds with 10-year yields rising to 1,136% on Monday after Front National presented a nationalist programme for the Presidential election. The 10Y spread to German Bunds has hit 77bps which has not been seen since Marine Le Pen has renewed the original objectives of her party to regain monetary, economic and legislative sovereignty. To this end, if elected, she said she will first start negotiations with EU partners and if they fail, she plans to organise a referendum on France s membership in the EU. Withdrawing from EU, EUR, and NATO are no easy tasks. She will probably be in 2 nd round of elections but appears unlikely to win. Having said that, this week also rating agency Standard&Poor s issued a statement indicating that desired re-denomination of French government bonds into new francs would trigger a default.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,0640-1,34 0,74-2,30 WTI crude 53,44-0,72 3,37 13,99 EUR/TRY 3,9261-1,42-1,56 11,15 BRENT crude 56,18-1,09 3,56 15,81 EUR/CHF 1,0670-0,31-0,63-0,81 GAS oil 499,00-0,40 3,42 15,64 EUR/GBP 0, ,11-1,64-1,60 Heating oil 165,49-0,61 1,92 11,74 EUR/JPY 120,76-0,58-1,31 3,95 Natural gas 3,03-1,21-7,60 5,80 EUR/RUB 62,4958-1,80-1,61-11,94 Gold Spot 1.226,74 0,54 3,59-3,16 EUR/CNY 7,3207-1,17-0,05-1,33 Silver Spot 17,61 0,55 4,89-6,12 USD/TRY 3,6892-0,19-2,30 13,75 Platinum Spot 1.003,90-0,08 2,58 2,28 USD/JPY 113,5 0,78-2,03 6,41 Palladium Spot 778,99 3,83 1,98 11,92 USD/RUB 58,7396-0,45-2,33-9,86 Copper 266,10 1,72 1,86 3,90 USD/CNY 6,879 0,17-0,61 1,07 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 02/10/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,30 2,98 9,50 Austria 101,54 0,61-0,57 0,58 BIST ,45 14,73 16,28 Belgium 102,50 0,94-0,36 0,72 CAC ,09-1,37 6,40 China 94,38-0,76-1,27 3,36 DAX ,10 0,69 9,72 EFSF 118,35-0,14-0,63-0,18 Dow Jones (T-1) ,45 1,60 7,26 ESM 113,71 0,14-0,43 0,07 Euro Stoxx ,14-1,14 7,28 France 92,76 0,46-2,10 1,03 FTSE ,83-0,37 6,15 Germany 97,61 0,81 0,30 0,25 HANG SENG ,93 3,65 3,22 Greece 76,68 0,97-3,24 7,16 IBEX ,82-0,70 7,18 Japan 100,19 0,05-0,35 0,07 MICEX ,82-3,29 5,86 Portugal 90,90 0,77-0,12 4,03 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,25 3,52 9,80 Spain 96,78 0,12-1,68 1,65 NIKKEI ,44 0,40 11,73 Russia 101,65-0,15 0,05 8,05 S&P 500 (T-1) ,18 1,72 6,48 Switzerland 113,84 0,46-0,41-0,25 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 99,70-0,57 3,16 10,89 Futures UK 102,14 0,81 0,89 1,26 Bobl 133,74 0,38 0,27 1,03 US 96,30 0,37 na 2,42 Bund 163,90 0,87 0,48 0,94 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,8078-0,74-1,94 12,39 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) 707-8,18-23,65-27,41 WAC of CBRT (T-1) 10,38 0,39 25,06 32,91 VIX 10,93-0,36-4,87-25,85 Gold TRY / gram 145,49 0,35 1,20 10,16 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 249,492-0,05-12,93-13,34 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 11,4 0,89 3,45 18,38 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 925,57 0,73 4,50 5,70 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,353-0,57-0,57 0,84 USD Libor O/N (T-1) 0,688-0,72-0,80 59,09 Euribor 1 Month -0,371 0,54 0,27 0,54 USD Libor 1M 0,771-0,57 0,80 43,28 Euribor 3 Month -0,329-0,31-1,54-5,45 USD Libor 3M 1,036 0,21 1,80 14,87 Euribor 6 Month -0,240 1,64-3,45-13,74 USD Libor 6M 1,338-0,86 0,33 6,36 Euribor 12 Month -0,101 0,00-12,22-42,25 USD Libor 12M 1,703-0,63 0,05 7,53 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,420-1,91-2,26-3,16 TRY Libor O/N 11,014-0,00 28,11 33,53 EUR Libor 1M -0,391-2,05-2,74-2,66 TRY Libor 1M 11,021 0,00 18,18 27,14 EUR Libor 3M -0,349-1,49-2,43-5,30 TRY Libor 3M 11,274 0,00 13,58 23,62 EUR Libor 6M -0,248-2,84-4,64-16,05 TRY Libor 6M 11,579 0,32 9,20 18,94 EUR Libor 12M -0,110-3,77-16,85-39,24 TRY Libor 12M 11,992 0,22 9,26 20,53

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 02/03/ :30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 180k 227k 156k 02/03/ :30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls Jan 5k 5k 17k 02/03/ :30 US Unemployment Rate Jan 4.7% 4.8% 4.7% 02/03/ :30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Jan % 62.7% 02/03/ :45 US Markit US Services PMI Jan F /03/ :00 US Factory Orders Dec 0.5% 1.3% -2.4% 02/03/ :00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans Dec % 0.1% 02/03/ :00 US Durable Goods Orders Dec F -0.4% -0.5% -0.4% 02/03/ :00 US Durables Ex Transportation Dec F % 0.5% 02/03/ :00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Dec F % 0.8% 02/03/ :00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Dec F % 1.0% 02/07/ :30 US Trade Balance Dec -$45.0b -$44.3b -$45.2b 02/07/ :00 US JOLTS Job Openings Dec /07/ :00 US Consumer Credit Dec $20.000b $14.160b $24.532b 02/08/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Feb % -3.2% 02/09/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb 4 249k 234k 246k 02/09/ :30 US Continuing Claims Jan k 2078k 2064k 02/09/ :45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Feb /09/ :00 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Dec % 0.4% 02/09/ :00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec F 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 02/03/ :00 EA Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan F /03/ :00 EA Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan F /03/ :00 EA Retail Sales MoM Dec 0.3% -0.3% -0.4% 02/03/ :00 EA Retail Sales YoY Dec 1.8% 1.1% 2.3% 02/06/ :10 EA Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jan /06/ :30 EA Sentix Investor Confidence Feb /03/ :00 TR CPI MoM Jan 1.76% 2.46% 1.64% 02/03/ :00 TR CPI YoY Jan 8.60% 9.22% 8.53% 02/03/ :00 TR CPI Core Index YoY Jan 7.60% 7.74% 7.48% 02/03/ :00 TR PPI MoM Jan 2.14% 3.98% 2.98% 02/03/ :00 TR PPI YoY Jan 10.40% 13.69% 9.94% 02/06/ :30 TR Effective Exchange Rate Jan /08/ :00 TR Industrial Production MoM Dec 0.6% -0.2% 0.0% 02/08/ :00 TR Industrial Production YoY Dec 2.3% 1.3% 2.7% 02/09/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Bond Invest Feb 3 -- $170m -$322m 02/09/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Stock Invest Feb 3 -- $349m $33m 02/03/ :00 RU Markit Russia PMI Composite Jan /03/ :30 RU Key Rate Feb % 10.00% 10.00% 02/06/ :00 RU CPI MoM Jan 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 02/06/ :00 RU CPI YoY Jan 5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 02/07/ :00 RU Official Reserve Assets Jan 386.0b 390.6b 377.7b

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.