FX & Markets Weekly. Week 28/2015. DenizBank AG Economic Research and Development Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 28/2015 DenizBank AG Economic Research and Development Vienna, Austria

2 Greece requests 3rd bailout Greece handed proposals to the Troika that almost matched the requests by international lenders that were rejected by Greek voters in the July 5 referendum. Hereby the government showed its last minute commitment to the euro area. But Greece, as well as other Euro countries need parliamentary approvals. Greece seeks EUR 53,5bn in 3 year loans that will be used to cover Greece s financing needs from 2015 to 2018, most of which are owed to IMF, ECB. Following this refinancing, Greece will be exclusively debtor to EU institutions. That s when the haircuts are expected to become true. This bailout optimism spurred bond and equity rallies across the globe. Lira climbs on declining oil The Lira extended gains this week, climbing the most among emerging market currencies. TRY extended its monthly performance to +4,26% against the EUR, and to +2,62% vs the USD. The Turkish currency gained and stocks rebounded as falling oil prices boosted prospects of an improvement in Turkey s balance of payments. Turkey which imports most of its energy needs has the 2 nd largest current account deficit relative to its GDP among G20 countries. Turkey remains one of the levered economies with close links to U.S. rates. Good news from Turkey was also the President giving mandate to form a government. Oil falls on Iran sanction relief speculation A potential nuclear deal between Iran and 6 world powers (U.S., China, France, Germany, Russia and U.K.) is in the making. Russia is pressing to end a UN arms embargo on Iran. Negotiations were in the 12 th day but remained inconclusive. An International Atomic Energy Agency report on the clarification of possible military dimensions of Iran s nuclear program will be ready by December. So earliest sanction relief date may be December However, already the news of such a possibility rattled oil markets. WTI dropped by almost 6% in a week extending its 13,3% monthly decline. On the other hand, OPEC s June output was 31,7m b/d, up by 340K b/d on the month as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. increased production to record levels. Chinese stocks rebound from sell-off Following the worst sell-off in 2 decades, that wiped out almost USD 4trn in market value, the Shanghai Composite Index rallied +5,4% this week. The regulator halted stocks from trading, banned IPOs, restricted short selling and allowed banks to roll over security covered loans. Also Hong Kong s Hang Seng index rebounded as companies were trading way below book values.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1187 0,67-1,03 5,51 WTI crude 52,90-7,01-14,36-4,63 EUR/TRY 2,9808-0,20-3,53 6,98 BRENT crude 58,86-2,39-11,29-2,66 EUR/CHF 1,0465 0,19-0,61 0,69 GAS oil 539,25-3,10-9,74-1,28 EUR/GBP 0, ,00-1,09-0,49 Heating oil 174,17-5,33-10,84-3,10 EUR/JPY 137,02 0,41-1,29 7,45 Natural gas 2,77-1,81-5,14 4,80 EUR/RUB 63,1665 1,47 2,69 11,22 Gold Spot 1.160,45-0,71-2,28-3,90 EUR/CNY 6,8986 0,01-1,89 4,58 Silver Spot 15,47-1,41-3,43-6,00 USD/TRY 2,6639-0,94-2,52 1,38 Platinum Spot 1.031,50-4,68-7,28-11,95 USD/JPY 122,48-0,28-0,26 1,85 Palladium Spot 655,00-4,45-12,09-15,75 USD/RUB 56,4589 0,79 3,75 5,27 Copper 254,00-3,52-7,72-7,32 USD/CNY 6,2094 0,06 0,06 0,01 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 07/10/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,91-3,57-6,30 Austria 119,02-0,12 0,30 0,73 BIST ,62 4,51 0,85 Belgium 109,96-0,20 0,21 0,94 CAC ,33-0,30-6,11 China 102,99 0,25 0,57 3,45 DAX ,03 0,15-8,82 EFSF 118,67-0,33 0,02 0,58 Dow Jones (T-1) ,18-2,51-2,82 ESM 110,56-0,41 0,32 0,80 Euro Stoxx ,69 0,22-7,40 France 110,32-0,20 0,30 0,79 FTSE ,34-2,29-5,86 Germany 107,01-0,53 0,77 0,56 HANG SENG ,46-6,69-8,69 Greece 48,05-9,94-15,58 14,88 IBEX ,64-0,30-5,83 Japan 104,06 0,29 0,57 0,24 MICEX ,61-1,90-2,13 Portugal 118,48 0,77 0,83 2,44 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,74-2,97-1,58 Spain 125,35 0,70 0,54 1,78 NIKKEI ,70-1,33-0,64 Russia 84,80-0,24-1,17 10,99 S&P 500 (T-1) ,26-2,56-2,41 Switzerland 131,93 0,16 0,69-0,21 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 88,66 0,35 1,58 9,19 Futures UK 99,23-0,59 0,03 1,87 Bobl 129,34-0,35 0,54-1,30 US 96,50 0,00 0,95 2,15 Bund 151,24-0,40 1,48-4,97 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 2,8227-0,53-3,09 4,17 Baltic Dry Index 853 7,43 38,03 47,07 WAC of CBRT 8,54 0,12 1,43 7,96 VIX 19,97 24,11 51,06 58,74 Gold TRY / gram 99,39-1,67-4,78-2,61 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 221,508 0,78-5,18 3,48 TR Gov. Bond 2Y 9,58-1,03-6,35 8,25 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 919,78-4,62-5,94-11,10 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,121 0,00 3,97-116,07 USD Libor O/N 0,127 0,80 2,85 3,69 Euribor 1 Month -0,071-5,97-12,70-222,73 USD Libor 1M 0,186-1,27-1,46 4,20 Euribor 3 Month -0,018-20,00-28,57-250,00 USD Libor 3M 0,286 0,53-0,71 3,18 Euribor 6 Month 0,049 0,00 0,00-37,98 USD Libor 6M 0,454 1,34 2,82 12,27 Euribor 12 Month 0,164 0,61-1,21-12,77 USD Libor 12M 0,763-1,15-2,46 9,21 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,180 0,00-2,44-8,62 TRY Libor O/N 11,014-0,01 0,21 2,84 EUR Libor 1M -0,081-2,70-14,00-128,03 TRY Libor 1M 11,017 0,00-0,01 3,35 EUR Libor 3M -0,014 4,73 4,73-300,14 TRY Libor 3M 11,085 0,08 0,16 7,10 EUR Libor 6M 0,057-0,25 3,64-14,20 TRY Libor 6M 11,094 0,08 0,24 11,00 EUR Libor 12M 0,167-1,27-4,49-11,36 TRY Libor 12M 11,119 0,00 0,47 11,17

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 07/06/ :45 US Markit US Composite PMI Jun F /06/ :45 US Markit US Services PMI Jun F /06/ :00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jun /06/ :00 US Labor Market Conditions Index Change Jun /07/ :30 US Trade Balance May -$42.70B -$41.87B -$40.90B 07/07/ :00 US JOLTS Job Openings May /07/ :00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Jul /08/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Jul % -4.7% 07/08/ :00 US Consumer Credit May $18.500B $16.086B $20.541B 07/09/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jul 4 275K 297K 281K 07/09/ :30 US Continuing Claims Jun K 2334K 2264K 07/09/ :45 US Consumer Comfort Jul /06/ :10 EU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Jun /06/ :30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence Jul /08/ :00 TR Industrial Production MoM May -0.8% -2.0% 0.0% 07/08/ :00 TR Industrial Production YoY May 2.2% 2.4% 3.8% 07/10/ :00 TR Current Account Balance May -3.53B -3.99B -3.41B 07/06/ :00 RU CPI MoM Jun 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 07/06/ :00 RU CPI YoY Jun 15.4% 15.3% 15.8% 07/06/ :00 RU CPI YTD Jun 8.6% 8.5% 8.3% 07/06/ :00 RU CPI Core MoM Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 07/06/ :00 RU CPI Core YoY Jun 16.8% 16.7% 17.1% 07/07/ :00 RU Official Reserve Assets Jun 366.2B 361.6B 356.8B 07/08/ :54 RU Light Vehicle Car Sales YoY Jun -0,37-0,3-0,38 07/08/ :00 RU CPI WoW Jul % 0.0% 07/08/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD Jul % 8.5% 07/09/ :47 RU Current Account Balance 2Q P 14000M 19200M 28947M 07/09/ :08 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Jul B 362.0B 07/09/ :00 RU Consumer Confidence Index 2Q /10/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Jul T 8.00T

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research and Development Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu; Members of the Supervisory Board: Sergey Gorkov, Hakan Ates, Dr. Kurt Heindl, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.