Weekly Market Review. 26 th May st June 2014

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review 26 th May st June 2014

2 Contents International Equity Markets GCC Equity Currencies Commodities Interest Rates

3 International Equity Markets S&P 500 closes at record high led by a rebound in tech stocks and as tension between Russia and Ukraine eased. The second revision to Q1 GDP growth in the US came at -1% on the back of low Inventories contribution Bank lending in Euro area showed signs of weakness as it shrank by 1.8% YoY in April. Growth in M3 Money supply also slowed to 0.8% in April versus an expected increase of 1.1% Germany s jobs data disappointed as number of people out of workforce rose 24k to 2.9 mn in May. Economists had forecasted a decline of 15k. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.7% Italy s CPI came higher by 0.4% YoY lesser than the expected 0.5% increase. Spain s Q1 GDP YoY recorded 0.5% (est. 0.6%) and its inflation came in lower than estimated at 0.2% (est.0.3%) ECB will be meeting on June 5 th to decide on key policy rates Market expects stimulus India Q1 GDP (YoY) came in at 4.6% (est. 4.7%). However, annual estimate remains in tact at 4.7%. India s current account deficit ($1.2bn) declined to a fresh 4 year low (0.2% of GDP) in Jan-March quarter as gold imports cooled off significantly Chinese official Manufacturing PMI continued to expand in May. It came in at 50.8 (est 50.7), up from the prior 50.4 figure Industrial production in Japan declined(-2.5%) by more than expected (-2%) Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P DJI Nasdaq Comp Euro Stoxx FTSE Dax CAC Nikkei Hang Seng Brazil - Bovespa Russia - Micex BSE Sensex Shanghai Comp Source: Bloomberg S&P 1 year performance BSE SENSEX - 1 year performance

4 GCC Equities DFMGI rebounded sharply as foreigners bought the final list of UAE constituents in the MSCI EM index. Technically, the index has closed the month of May above 5000 which is a strong support EMAAR is raising a USD 1.5bn islamic loan to replace an older facility as interest rates decline (at a rate of 1.75% + Libor on the 7 -yr facility).this will help the company repay USD 980mn conventional and islamic loans Arabtec s CEO (Hasan Ismaik) almost tripled his stake from 8.03% to 21.5% through direct market purchases Qatar raised the foreign ownership limit for shares listed on Doha s stock exchange from 25% to 49% less than a week before the MSCI upgrade Vodafone Qatar made a net loss of USD9mn as it increased its customer base by more than 20% Emirates Reit has proposed to pay a dividend of $0.05/share for Record date for eligibility : June 18, 2014 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Tadawul* Qatar Index Kuwait Price Index Oman MAM Bahrain All Share Egypt EGX Istanbul 100 Index Source: Bloomberg Moody s affirmed Etisalat s Aa3 local and foreign currency long-term issuer rating; The company also got a grant of near USD 500mn from Abu Dhabi government to fund its global acquisitions DFM Index 1 year performance Qatar Index 1 year performance

5 Currencies On a monthly basis, EUR/USD fell the most since January on speculation that the ECB will add stimulus this week to prevent deflation and boost economic growth Brazil s real declined to a 3-week low as Brazil s GDP increased by 0.2% in Q1, down from the revised 0.4% expansion in Q The peso posted its biggest monthly gain since september after S&P raised the nation s long term investment grade rating by one level to BBB from BBB- Canadian dollar declined on the back of weak economic growth in Q YEN remained flat on the back of weak economic data from the region Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR / USD GBP / USD AUD / USD USD / JPY USD/ CHF USD/ CAD USD/ BRl USD/ RUB USD/ INR USD/ CNY DXY Index Source: Bloomberg INR/USD 1 year movement EUR/USD Currency 1 year movement

6 Commodities WTI crude drops on the back of rising inventories and falling US consumer spending. Personal spending in the US dropped 0.1% vs. a 0.2% expected growth Gold futures fell on the back of the US equity rally and easing tension between Russia & Ukraine. Gold ends below 1250 Copper advances for the 2 nd month as stockpiles tracked by LME plunged the most since 2005 Nickel slid nearly 2% past week as Vale SA gets permission to restart its New Caledonia plant Wheat futures fell, capping the biggest monthly drop since 2011 on the back of rising global supplies Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex Wheat- CBOT Corn- CBOT Soybean- CBOT S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Source: Bloomberg WHEAT Active Contract 1 year chart Gold spot 1 year chart

7 Interest Rates US Treasuries advanced on the back weak German data and as bonds stay cheaper relative to equities. The yields dropped to 1 year lows and ended at about 2.47% Yields on bonds from Ireland to Spain fell to records amid speculation that the ECB will cut interest rates and may introduce further stimulus Reserve Bank Of India is expected to keep the benchmark REPO rate at 8% at a June 3 rd review. It has already raised the rates 3 times since September 2013 The yield on the 8.83% Indian securities due November 2023 fell by 18bps in May the most since one year Traders expect ECB to cut interest rates and to introduce additional stimulus. German 10 year bunds reported a 5 th monthly gain the longest streak since 2010 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD- 1w Libor USD - 3m Libor USD - 6m Libor USD - 10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK - 10yr Japan - 10yr Source: Bloomberg U.S. 10 year generic bond yield 1 year performance JPM Germany- Italy 10 year spread 1 year performance

8 Equity Markets - TOP Most & Bottom Most WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Ref Country YTD Pct Change 1 Macedonia 6.78% 1 UAE -Dubai 51.49% 2 UAE- AD 6.65% 2 Ukraine 47.65% 3 Ukraine 6.61% 3 Argentina 43.06% 4 Slovania 5.54% 4 Qatar 31.79% 5 Qatar 5.27% 5 India 29.08% 6 Nigeria 4.86% 6 Slovania 24.02% 7 Bulgaria 4.67% 7 Bulgaria 23.13% 8 Greece 4.61% 8 UAE- AD 20.82% 9 UAE -Dubai 4.59% 9 Bermuda 17.76% 10 Italy 4.26% 10 Pakistan 17.72% Ref Country Weekly Change Ref Country YTD Pct Change 1 Egypt -5.55% 1 Venezuela % 2 India -3.79% 2 Jamaica % 3 Magnolia -3.64% 3 Japan/Nikkei % 4 Jamaica -2.84% 4 Magnolia -9.12% 5 Brazil -2.64% 5 Malta -7.95% 6 Namibia -2.23% 6 Japan/ TOPIX -7.75% 7 Philippines -2.20% 7 Croatia -5.17% 8 Venezuela -1.51% 8 Russia -4.79% 9 Canada -1.44% 9 Latvia -4.77% 10 Laos -1.41% 10 Iceland -4.04% 8

9 Commodities Top Most & Bottom Most WEEKLY Ref Commodity Weekly Change Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Nickel 4.30% 1 Coffee 54.21% 2 Aluminum 3.64% 2 Nickel 38.49% 3 Platinum 2.94% 3 Ethanol 31.27% 4 Soybean 2.59% 4 Lean Hogs 21.88% 5 Coffee 2.44% 5 Soybean 18.09% 6 Orange Juice 2.29% 6 Palladium 16.81% 7 Palladium 2.03% 7 Cocoa 12.74% 8 Corn 1.98% 8 Orange Juice 12.14% 9 Rice 1.61% 9 Natural Gas/NYMEX 9.58% 10 Zinc 1.39% 10 Live Cattle 8.34% YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Natural Gas/ICE -7.94% 1 Natural Gas/ICE % 2 Lean Hogs -6.97% 2 Lumber % 3 Ethanol -4.28% 3 Copper -7.41% 4 Wheat -3.70% 4 Lead -5.59% 5 Sugar -3.50% 5 Gasoil -3.79% 6 Live Cattle -2.57% 6 Silver -3.35% 7 Lumber -1.79% 7 Rice -1.96% 8 Cotton -1.43% 8 Zinc -0.05% 9 Brent Crude -1.25% 9 Brent Crude 0.36% 10 Gasoil -1.08% 10 Wheat 1.70% 9

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