Weekly Market Review. 5 th April th April 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review 5 th April th April 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equity Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US job openings climbed to a 14-yr high of 5.13mn in Feb, signaling companies are upbeat about future prospects Initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 281,000 for the week ended Apr 4, less than expected Markit s US services sector PMI rose to 59.2 in Mar from 57.1 in Feb, its highest level since Aug. However, Institute for Supply Management s US services index fell to 56.5 in Mar vs in Feb, lowest since Dec 2014 Markit/JPMorgan's Global All-Industry Output index jumped to 54.8 in Mar from 53.9 in Feb; new orders strengthen Sentix Euro zone investor sentiment index climbed to 20.0 in Apr from 18.6 in Mar, boosted by ECB s bond buying German factory orders, seasonally adjusted, unexpectedly fell 0.9% in Feb after declining 2.6% (revised) in Jan Exports rose 1.5% in Feb after dipping 2.1% in Jan, imports gained 1.8% leaving 19.7bn trade surplus France will allocate 2.5bn over five years in tax rebates to firms for boosting investment to help revive economy Private sector business expands at slower pace as Markit s composite PMI dipped to 51.5 vs in Feb Greece made 450mn loan repayment to the IMF on Apr 9, won extra emergency lending for its banks China s annual CPI stayed flat at 1.4% in Mar, leading to predictions that more easing measures are in the pipeline Producer prices contracted 4.6% in Mar, highlighting sustained pressure on company s profit margins People's Bank of China injected $114bn worth short-term loans in 1Q2015 to aid economic growth Japan's parliament passed a record 96.34tn budget for FY , welfare spending jumped to record 31.53tn United Nation s Latin American arm cut region s 2015 growth forecast to 1% from 2.2% on global concerns IMF cut Brazil s 2015 performance from 0.3% growth to 1% contraction due to tighter fiscal & monetary policies Moody s revised India s rating outlook to "positive" from "stable, expecting policymaker s to lift country s growth IMF ups Thailand s 2015 growth forecast to 3.7% from earlier 3.5%, but reiterated that downside risks remain Saudi Arabia s non-oil private sector growth accelerated to a 6-month high as SABB HSBC Saudi PMI gained to 60.1 from 58.5 in Feb. However, the UAE s business activity slowed as HSBC UAE PMI fell to 56.3 in Mar from 58.1 in Feb Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 18, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 7, Dax 12, CAC 40 5, Nikkei , Hang Seng 27, , Brazil - Bovespa 54, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 28, Shanghai Comp 4, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance

4 GCC EQUITIES The Prime Minister of the UAE approved AED14bn worth projects, to be carried out by Nakheel over next 3 years Pacific Control Systems raised AED1bn in 72-month loans to partly finance its expansion plans DAMAC Properties considers taking an equity stake in a project to build a 50-storey mixed-used tower in London Dubai-based developer Seven Tides will develop luxury resort & residences at a cost of AED650mn RAK Ceramics signed an agreement with Laticrete Intnl. Asia Pacific to sell its shares in RAK Laticrete for AED48.1mn Union Properties confirmed plans to develop 226 villas & apartments in Green Development in July 2015 Emirates National Oil Co. $1.5bn 9-year loan is being marketed to banks after 7 lenders underwrite the financing Abu Dhabi based Eagle Hills and the UAE businessman Mohamed Alabbar will carry a development project in Belgrade, Serbia at a cost of around $3.25bn over the next 10 years Riyad Bank recorded an 8.6% YoY gain in its 1Q2015 net income to SAR1.17bn Banque Saudi Fransi s bottom-line in 1Q2015 jumped 22.7% YoY to SAR1.05bn Jarir Marketing Co. reported 22.7% YoY increase in 1Q2015 net profit to SAR247mn Alinma Bank s earnings in 1Q2015 rose 17.4% to SAR344mn from SAR293mn in 1Q2014 The National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia recorded a surge of 104.5% YoY in 1Q2015 net income to SAR399mn Saudi Cable Co. signed a binding term sheet with its main lenders in order to restructure its SAR640mn debt Saudi-based Almarai Company s shareholders gave nod to distribute SAR1/share dividend (SAR600mn) for FY2014 Kuwait s Aayan Leasing & Investment requested its creditor s to reschedule the remaining debts worth KWD176mn Qatar National Bank s 1Q2015 net profit increased 10.1% YoY to QAR2.7bn. Net interest income rose 6.7% YoY Habtoor Leighton Group won QAR2.2bn contract from Qatar s KAHRAMAA to construct water reservoirs by 2Q2018 Al Namaa Poultry, to be set up with a capital expenditure of OMR100mn, will produce 60,000 tons of poultry meat Aluminium Bahrain revealed it is close to selecting financial adviser for its $2.5bn Line 6 expansion project Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 3, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 8, Qatar Index 11, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 8, Istanbul 100 Index 82, DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance

5 CURRENCIES US dollar snapped a three-week loss and appreciated 3.3% to per euro on speculation the Federal Reserve is inching closer to raising interest rates as jobless claims dropped to an almost 15-year low Pound sterling posted its worst weekly performance in a month as it weakened 1.9% versus the US currency and volatility surged to a five-year high as polls showed the May 7 vote is unlikely to produce a clear winner Chinese Yuan recorded its biggest weekly drop in more than a month, falling 0.23% to per dollar as China s economy showed no signs of picking up. Consumer prices rose 1.4% while producer prices fell 4.6% in Mar Brazil s real closed up 1.5% in the week to per dollar as party leaders in Brazil s ruling coalition agreed to support the government s budget plan Russia s ruble gained 5.4% in the week to per dollar as oil prices stabilized and perception about Russian economy improved. Earlier in the week, S&P upgraded Russia s 2016 growth outlook to 1.9% from zero previously Malaysia s ringgit strengthened 0.6%, rising for a third week as a rally in crude helped shield the region s only major oil-exporter from bets the US will raise interest rates Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance

6 COMMODITIES West Texas Intermediate Crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange posted its third consecutive weekly advance, gaining 5.1% as fears a nuclear deal with Iran could result in a near-term flood of crude exports faded Gold rose marginally by 0.4% in the week, pressured by a stronger dollar and renewed expectations for a US rate hike in Investor s tend to shun gold, which does not pay interest, factoring in a rise in US interest rates Several banks including Goldman Sachs and Citi slashed their forecasts for 2Q2015 coffee & sugar prices by as much as 31% as Brazil's real slumped to its lowest in 12 years. Rabobank s forecast of 12.5 cents/lb 2Q2015 average sugar price was most bearish while Citi cut its 2Q2015 Arabica coffee forecast by 31%, the most of any bank surveyed Palm-oil futures dropped 2.7% in the week as estimates of a surge in crude palm oil production in the world's top growers increased fears that supplies would overwhelm lackluster demand. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association forecasted 27.1% jump in total palm output while top-producer Indonesia s palm output likely rose 17% in Mar Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Lead and zinc futures on London Metal Exchange (LME) increased 7.7% & 5.1%, respectively on more evidence of tightening supply. Lead stocks on LME fell to 221,575 tons, lowest in about a month while it fell to 48,096 tons on Shanghai Futures Exchange, lowest since Nov 12. LME zinc stocks fell to 509,450 tons, a four-year low The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index lost 1.36% in the week on muted vessel activity. According to ship broker RS Platou, freight market is currently suffering on expectations of lower iron ore prices in coming months WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance

7 INTEREST RATES US treasury bonds posted the biggest weekly selloff in more than a month, sending 10-year yield bps higher to 1.95% as investors continue to grapple with the prospect of a major shift in US monetary policy and low bond yields permeating in developed countries The Bank of England left unchanged its benchmark rate at 0.5% as well as size of its bond portfolio at 375bn, following a further slowdown in inflation in the UK, where national elections campaigning entered final month The Bank of Japan maintained a plan to expand the monetary base at an annual pace of 80tn as it tries to head off a drop in consumer prices. Japan s core consumer prices stood flat from a year earlier in Feb The Reserve Bank of India kept the benchmark repurchase rate at 7.5%, reflecting a desire to ensure inflation stays below a target of 6% by January. Commercial banks in India are yet to pass on two previous cuts to customers The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.25%, opting to wait until first quarter inflation figures are released later in Apr 2015 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr Peru s central bank left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25%, in accordance with expectations as the bank weighed anemic economic growth with fears of stoking inflation US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Hong Kong 7.90% 7.93% 2 Russia 7.45% 7.45% 3 Serbia 5.83% 2.84% 4 Norway 5.80% 3.76% 5 Hungary 5.75% 2.96% 6 Argentina 5.55% 5.29% 7 Portugal 4.52% 1.04% 8 China 4.41% 4.17% 9 Romania 4.04% 0.61% 10 Luxembourg 3.90% 0.44% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 41.70% 41.70% 2 Argentina 36.22% 30.32% 3 Denmark 34.69% 17.64% 4 Portugal 31.45% 15.22% 5 Hungary 27.16% 18.82% 6 Russia 26.39% 26.39% 7 Germany 26.20% 10.62% 8 Italy 25.59% 10.08% 9 China 24.72% 24.66% 10 France 22.65% 7.50% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Ukraine -2.77% -2.12% 2 Nigeria -2.23% -2.27% 3 Kenya -2.18% -2.13% 4 Jordan -1.52% -1.52% 5 Malta -1.05% -4.34% 6 Lebanon -1.00% -1.00% 7 Morocco -0.70% -3.42% 8 Sri Lanka -0.68% -0.53% 9 Bulgaria -0.64% -3.95% 10 Mongolia -0.57% -0.37% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Peru % % 2 Kazakhstan % % 3 Colombia % % 4 Mongolia % % 5 Cyprus -7.49% % 6 Greece -6.07% % 7 Sri Lanka -5.45% -6.77% 8 Mauritius -5.37% % 9 Kuwait -3.95% -6.89% 10 Turkey -3.59% %

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Lead 7.69% 2 Brent Crude 5.31% 3 WTI Crude 5.09% 4 Zinc 5.09% 5 Heat Oil 4.97% 6 Gasoil 4.82% 7 Palladium 4.26% 8 Gasoline 2.61% 9 Cotton 2.15% 10 Platinum 1.44% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoline 25.92% 2 Cotton 7.95% 3 Lead 7.45% 4 Gasoil 5.17% 5 Silver 4.88% 6 Aluminium 2.28% 7 Gold 1.92% 8 Rubber 1.68% 9 Zinc 1.47% 10 Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Orange Juice -9.74% 2 Natural Gas -7.45% 3 Silver -4.53% 4 Coffee -4.12% 5 Steel Rebar -3.91% 6 Rubber -3.47% 7 Palm Oil -2.66% 8 Aluminium -0.73% 9 Nickel -0.63% 10 Copper -0.10% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Lean Hogs % 2 Orange Juice % 3 Lumber % 4 Coffee % 5 Nickel % 6 Steel Rebar % 7 Bean Meal % 8 Tin % 9 Natural Gas % 10 Sugar %

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