Weekly Market Review November 2, 2014 November 8, 2014

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review November 2, 2014 November 8, 2014 November 9, 2014

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US job growth increased in Oct as employers added 214,000 new jobs. Unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 5.9% The ISM s national factory activity index for US rose to 59 in Oct from 56.6 in Sept New orders for US factory goods dropped 0.6% in Sept after recording a fall of 10% in Aug Consumer borrowing increased by $15.9bn in Sept followed by a revised $14bn advance in Aug Trade deficit unexpectedly widened in Sept to $43.03bn as exports fell 1.5% while imports remained flat JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.2 in Oct, suggesting factory activity is expanding slowly JPMorgan/Markit Global All-Industry Output Index fell to 53.6 in Oct from 54.8 in Sept, reflecting weaker increases in new business and a slowdown in the rate of hiring Euro zone finance ministers approved the next tranche of bailout loans for Cyprus amounting 350mn European Commission cut its Euro zone growth forecast to 0.8% expansion in 2014, 1.1% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016 Markit s composite Euro zone PMI nudged up from September's 10-month low of 52.0 to 52.1 Markit s composite PMI for Germany fell to 53.9 from 54.1 in Sept and below the initial reading of 54.3 Markit s France services sector PMI came at 48.2 in Oct, showing contraction in services sector activity German exports jumped 5.5% MoM in Sept vs. a 5.8% fall in Aug whereas industrial production gained 1.4% in Sept BoE held kept interest rates at 0.5% and decided not to extend its QE program beyond the 375bn already spent UK trade gap widened to 9.8bn from 8.9bn in Aug as exports rose 4.2% while imports grew 5.8% on MoM basis China October services PMI from HSBC/Markit fell to 52.9 in Oct from 53.5 in Sept and lowest since July China s exports rose 11.6% while imports gained 4.6% YoY in Oct. In Sept, exports have grown 15.3% & imports 7% HSBC Manufacturing PMI for India rose to 51.6 in Oct from 51 in Sept. New orders sub index moved up to 53 in Oct Indonesia s GDP expanded at 5.01% YoY in 3Q2014. Private consumption was up 5.4% vs. 5.6% growth in 2Q2014 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 17, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 9, CAC 40 4, Nikkei , Hang Seng 23, Brazil - Bovespa 53, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 27, Shanghai Comp 2, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES IMF projected UAE to grow by 4.25% in 2014, down from 5.2% in Non-oil growth is forecasted at 5.5% National Bank of Abu Dhabi signed a deal to provide AED2.1bn term loan for 10 years to Abu Dhabi National Hotels Dubai Holdings mandated banks to raise a syndicated loan worth AED4bn to be used by TECOM Investments Etisalat telecom announced it will cut its net profit by AED162mn on its Saudi-affiliate, Mobily s earning debacle Abraaj Investment Management made a formal offer of EGP850mn for acquiring 100% of Egypt-based Bisco Misr Daman Investments plans to sell 55% of its equity through an IPO in 1Q2015 AED1.37bn Amanat IPO oversubscribed nearly 10 times. It is scheduled to list on DFM in late Nov-2014 Dubai redeemed a $681mn Sukuk and a Shari ah compliant $1.25bn security sold in 2009 Mubadala GE Capital will raise $500mn at the conclusion of its debut bond sale. It has got orders worth $850mn Capital Intelligence affirmed Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank s Financial Strength & Foreign Currency rating Dubai-based National General Insurance reported a 104.8% YoY increase in 3Q2014 net profit to AED42.7mn Etihad Etisalat scrapped 3Q2014 dividend after it posted 71% YoY drop in 3Q2014 net profit on accounting issues Saudi Arabia s National Commercial Bank IPO got oversubscribed 23 times as it received requests worth $83bn Saudi Arabia's Arrow Food Distribution offered to acquire Egypt's Arab Dairy Products for EGP57.12 per share, topping a rival bid of EGP 56 per share from Pioneers Holdings, which already owns 25% of Arab Dairy Liwa Plastics Project (LPP) plans to float four EPC contracts in January 2015 for building the $3.6bn LPP Vodafone Qatar reported a lower net loss of QR53.5mn in 2QFY15 as compared to QR75mn in 2QFY14 Qatar Investment Authority signed an agreement with China s Citic group to launch a $10bn fund investing in China Qatar s Barwa Real Estate signed an agreement to acquire remaining 50% of Lusail Golf Development for QR2.48bn Commercial Bank of Kuwait cancelled sale of KD120mn capital boosting bond citing legislative and technical issues Investcorp entered into an agreement to acquire Dainese, an Italian motorcycle clothing retailer for 130mn Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 4, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 9, Qatar Index 13, Kuwait Index 7, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 9, Istanbul 100 Index 77, , DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES The pound fell 0.8% in the week to per dollar as Bank of England officials kept borrowing costs at a recordlow in the week, while reports showed services and construction growth slowed as house prices declined in Oct The yen slid to its weakest in 7 years and went down 2% in the week to per dollar after BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there was no limit to the easing measures the bank could take to tackle deflation The Russian ruble slumped 8.6% in the week to per dollar as fighting erupts anew in Ukraine and crude oil, Russia s main export earner, trades near a four-year low South Korean won depreciated 2.25% in the week to 1, per dollar, its biggest weekly decline since June 2013 as monetary stimulus pledged by central banks in Europe and Japan boosted the dollar The Indian rupee fell 0.4% during the week to per dollar, tracking global gains in the dollar due to fears the Federal Reserve would move earlier than expected to tighten monetary policy Malaysian ringgit weakened for a fourth week and depreciated 1.7% to per dollar as crude prices slid to the lowest level since Oil accounted for 30% of Malaysia s state revenue in 2013 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.77% in the week to 12,178 per dollar as official data showed that Indonesia s thirdquarter economic growth of 5.01% was the slowest in five years EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES Gold climbed 0.38% in the week to $1, per ounce after a report showed US employers added fewer jobs than forecasted in October, reviving demand for a haven Brent recorded a 2.88% for a seventh week, the longest declining streak since November 2001 after OPEC reduced every forecast for demand for its crude through 2035 except in 2015 in its annual World Oil Outlook Aluminium futures gained 0.78% in the week as the metal received a boost after signs of a strengthening US economy, providing the likelihood of a demand increase for the metal Wheat futures lost 3.38% in the week as world stockpiles are forecasted to climb 8% to the highest in 15 years Corn futures declined 2.46% in the week as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation has forecasted record world production of wheat and corn this year, despite trimming overall cereals output and stocks forecasts Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index 1, Palm oil futures shed 4.49% in the week as traders squared positions ahead of a data release due next week which is anticipated to show higher Malaysian palm oil stocks WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES US 10-year treasuries rose and yields fell 3.8 bps in the week to 2.3% after a US report showing a lower-thanforecasted gain in jobs in October added to speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low for longer Spanish government bonds fell and 10-year yields climbed 8.1 bps in the week to 2.15% as speculation the European Central Bank will intensify its stimulus program failed to convince investors that yields can fall further Italian 10-year securities dropped and yields rose 2.9 bps in the week to 2.37% as Italian debt chief Maria Cannata said that the benefits of the European central bank extending its purchases to government bonds is unclear China s bonds rallied and 10-year yields lost 23 bps in the week to 3.57% after the central bank confirmed it added cash to the banking system in the last two months and signaled further monetary stimulus Indian government bonds advanced and yields lost 7 bps in the week to 8.21% on optimism that falling oil prices will aid the central bank s efforts to curb inflation and open the door to lower interest rates Brazil swap rates on the contract maturing in January 2022 climbed, extending their weekly increase to 0.57 percentage point as a report showing above-target inflation and the announcement of increases in fuel prices added to speculation that the central bank will keep increasing borrowing costs Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Egypt 3.35% 3.29% 2 Bulgaria 3.13% 2.56% 3 Japan Nikkei 2.84% 0.80% 4 Montenegro 2.39% 1.81% 5 Slovakia 2.24% 1.67% 6 Jamaica 2.21% 2.15% 7 Venezuela 2.08% 2.08% 8 Tunisia 1.97% 1.36% 9 Israel 1.88% 1.61% 10 Pakistan 1.82% 2.56% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Argentina 96.41% 50.52% 2 Egypt 38.89% 34.98% 3 India 31.64% 31.99% 4 Qatar 30.93% 30.94% 5 Dubai UAE 30.75% 30.75% 6 Montenegro 27.63% 15.67% 7 Sri Lanka 25.43% 25.31% 8 Serbia 24.08% 7.65% 9 Slovenia 23.59% 12.01% 10 Pakistan 22.44% 26.38% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Cyprus % % 2 Nigeria % % 3 Russia -7.67% -7.67% 4 Argentina -3.91% -3.98% 5 Saudi Arabia -3.84% -3.84% 6 Italy -3.48% -4.02% 7 Spain -3.35% -3.89% 8 Turkey -3.25% -4.76% 9 Kazakhstan -3.21% -3.20% 10 Kuwait -3.08% -3.69% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Russia % % 2 Greece % % 3 Portugal % % 4 Nigeria % % 5 Austria % % 6 Cyprus % % 7 Malta % % 8 Latvia -9.11% % 9 Jamaica -8.95% % 10 Hungary -7.76% % Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Natural Gas 13.92% 2 Tin 2.79% 3 Ethanol 2.50% 4 Feeder Cattle 1.87% 5 Lead 1.29% 6 Lumber 1.27% 7 Lean Hogs 0.85% 8 Aluminium 0.78% 9 Gold 0.43% 10 Bean Meal 0.36% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Coffee 64.77% 2 Feeder Cattle 43.09% 3 Live Cattle 24.01% 4 Aluminium 14.15% 5 Nickel 10.97% 6 Zinc 9.25% 7 Palladium 7.95% 8 Cocoa 6.64% 9 Natural Gas 4.30% 10 Lean Hogs 3.92% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Soybean Oil -6.90% 2 Orange Juice -4.60% 3 Palm Oil -4.49% 4 Wheat -3.38% 5 Coffee -2.98% 6 Brent Crude -2.88% 7 Zinc -2.69% 8 Corn -2.46% 9 Silver -2.43% 10 Palladium -2.43% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Rubber % 2 Brent Crude % 3 Cotton % 4 Rough Rice % 5 Gasoline % 6 Gasoil % 7 Soybeans % 8 Steel Rebar % 9 WTI Crude % 10 Natural Gas/ICE % Page I 9

10 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent. Page I 10