Weekly Market Review April 19, 2015 April 25, 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review April 19, 2015 April 25, 2015 April 26, 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US business investment spending plans fell for 7 th straight month in Mar by 0.5% on strong dollar & low oil prices Single-family home sales declined 11.4% in Mar, recording the biggest drop since July 2013 Preliminary manufacturing PMI from Markit dropped to 54.2 in Apr from 55.7 in Mar Markit's Euro zone composite PMI slid to 53.5 in Apr from 54.0 in Mar, driven by sharply slower growth in manufacturing orders in Germany and France, suggesting recent optimism about Euro zone may be overdone The ECB raised the funds available to Greek banks under Emergency Liquidity Assistance scheme by around 1.5bn German govt. raised 2015 & 2016 economic growth forecast to 1.8% on the back of strong private consumption ZEW indicator of economic sentiment fell to 53.3 in Apr from 54.8 in Mar, recording 1 st fall since Oct 14 IFO s business climate index rose for a 6 th month to in Apr from in Mar Greece hopes to receive 2.5bn by forcing public entities to lend to state, giving it room to meet its obligations Poland plans to invest up to 8.0bn in projects linked to the European investment plan Business activity weakened in China as HSBC/Markit preliminary PMI fell to a one-year low of 49.2 from 49.6 in Mar China will open its $6.8tn domestic bank card transactions clearing market to foreign players as Visa & MasterCard China launched plan to invest $46bn in energy & infrastructure projects in Pakistan, eclipsing US spending Markit/JMMA preliminary Japan PMI slid to 49.7 vs in Mar as new orders shrank & manufacturing prod. fell Japan posted 1 st trade surplus since Jun 12 as exports gained 8.5% in Mar while imports tumbled 14.5% Brazil s current a/c deficit narrowed to $5.74bn in Mar 2014 from $6.60bn in Mar 2013, calculated under a new methodology that bolstered international direct investment figures Australia s core consumer prices advanced 0.6% QoQ in 1Q2015, providing scope for central bank to reduce rates Mexico s annual inflation in the 12 months through mid-apr eased to 3.03% vs. 3.14% reached in the month of Mar South Korea s GDP increased 0.8% QoQ in 1Q2015, surpassing 0.3% growth recorded in 4Q2014 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 18, Nasdaq Comp 5, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 7, Dax 11, CAC 40 5, Nikkei , Hang Seng 28, Brazil - Bovespa 56, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 27, , Shanghai Comp 4, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES DAMAC Properties disclosed AED792.9mn net profit in 1Q2015; BoD to propose AED5.5bn dividend for 2015, 2016 Emirates NBD reported net profit of AED1.67bn in 1Q2015, reflecting an increase of 60% YoY and 36% QoQ Mashreq Bank s profit grew 13.2% YoY in 1Q2015 to AED651.1mn. Loans & advances slid 2.4% YTD to AED106.9bn Dubai-based Kampac Oil plans to invest more than $10bn to construct Kampac Energy City in Sual, Philippines Emirates Telecom Corp. earnings rose 7.9% YoY in 1Q2015 to AED2.2bn. Revenue jumped 30.4% YoY to AED12.9bn Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank posted 31% YoY and 22% QoQ surge in 1Q2015 net profit to AED1.25bn DP World considers issuing long term dollar-denominated bonds worth between $750mn to $1bn Union National Bank s profitability jumped 19.9% YoY to AED610.8mn. Operating profit climbed 22% YoY S&P revised its outlook on Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company to negative from stable Emirates Islamic Bank s net income soared 106% YoY in 1Q2015 to AED193.7mn, total income climbed 58% YoY National Bank of Fujairah s earnings in 1Q2015 jumped 29.6% YoY to AED149.5mn. Operating profit grew 24.3% YoY Saudi Basic Industries Corp. reported a drop of 39% YoY in its 1Q2015 bottom-line to SAR3,930mn Saudi Telecom Co. recorded 4.6% YoY gain in 1Q2015 net profit to SAR2.5bn, BoD approved SAR2bn dividend Bank Al Bilad s shareholders approved to distribute SAR200mn dividend, increase capital by SAR1bn to SAR5bn Saudi Chemical Co. signed agreements with 3 major creditors to reschedule debts worth SAR640mn Savola Group s 1Q2015 net income grew 11.2% YoY to SAR470.5mn, BoD recommends SAR266.99mn dividend Oman Air signed JV agreement with Luxembourg-based Cargolux Airlines to develop Muscat airport as logistics hub Industries Qatar s 1Q2015 earnings dropped 40% YoY to QAR951mn as falling price of oil led to weak product prices Mesaieed Petrochemical s 1Q2015 earnings plunged 74.9% YoY to QAR116.2mn on maintenance shutdowns The National Bank of Bahrain reported 2.4% YoY rise in 1Q2015 net profit to BHD17mn. Net interest income fell YoY Gulf Finance House will delist its GDR from London Stock Exchange, while maintaining its other stock listings in GCC DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 2, Abu Dhabi 18, Saudi Tadawul 5, Qatar Index Kuwait Index 7, Oman MSM 30 11, Bahrain All Share 5, Egypt EGX 30 20, Istanbul 100 Index 28, Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES US dollar depreciated 0.6% in the week to per euro, pressured by weak housing markets numbers and seventh straight monthly decline recorded by non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft Sterling gained 1.5% in the week to US dollars, joining a global push against the greenback and putting in doubt the running assumption that uncertainty ahead of the UK general election is a mounting risk for the pound Brazil s real registered its 4 th straight weekly gain, advancing 2.9% to per dollar as concerns eased that allegations of corruption at Petroleo Brasileiro would lead to a junk credit rating for the South American nation New Zealand s dollar declined 1.0% in the week to US cents after Reserve Bank assistant governor John McDermott ruled out interest rate hikes in the near future India s rupee registered its biggest weekly drop since August 2013, sliding 1.9% to per dollar as global funds sold $320mn more rupee notes than they bought in the first four days of the week after the government said overseas investors would have to pay a retrospective 20% capital gains tax, retrospectively Malaysia s ringgit moved up 1.2% in the week to 3.58 per dollar as a rebound in oil prices eased concerns over lower crude's impact on current and fiscal accounts of the net oil exporter Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES Brent crude futures gained 2.88% in the week as fighting in Yemen and airstrikes from a Saudi-led coalition created more tensions over the security of Middle East oil supplies Gold fell for a third straight week by 2.06% as strength in global equities diverted interest from the precious metal. The losses came despite a decline in the US dollar, which hit a near three-week low against a basket of currencies Tin futures on London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 6.57% in the week after dropping 11.08% last week as the 10- day volatility for the benchmark contract hits the highest level in the week since Oct 2011 amid thin volumes. The metal is the worst performer on LME and has lost 21% this year on rising supply from Myanmar and China Cotton futures on the US ICE exchange increased 5.07% in the week after a government report showed a surge in overseas demand for the US fiber Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Corn futures declined 4.02% in the week, hurt by expectations of planting progress in the United States and fears that a bird flu outbreak will cut demand for livestock feed Cocoa futures rose 1.76% in the week as weakness in US dollar helped in improving the competitiveness in export markets of dollar-denominated supplies even as data signaled a drop in demand for beans from Asia, where the grind fell even further than in Europe and North America WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES Italian and Spanish bonds gained for the week and 10-year yields declined 3.4 bps & 6.5 bps to 1.44% & 1.38%, respectively, supported by the European Central Bank s 1.1tn debt-buying program The National Bank of Hungary cut its main monetary policy rate to 1.80%, from 1.95% to underpin its relatively robust economic growth as consumer prices continued to fall The People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio, the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, for all banks by 100 bps to 18.5%, effective from April 20, 2015, aimed at adding more liquidity Turkey s central bank left the benchmark one-week repurchase rate at 7.5% for a third month, while overnight lending and borrowing rates were kept at 10.75% and 7.25%, respectively amid accelerating inflation and jitters over the outcome of June s parliamentary elections South Korea s 10-year bond yield climbed 18.7 bps in the week to 2.31% as 1Q2015 GDP data beat estimates, fueling speculation the central bank will refrain from cutting its policy rate from a record low Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr Egypt s central bank kept the overnight deposit rate and lending rate unchanged at 8.75% and 9.75%, respectively even after receiving $6bn in deposits from Gulf Arab allies to boost its foreign-currency reserves US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 5.79% 5.79% 2 Hungary 5.13% 5.01% 3 Ukraine 4.97% -4.18% 4 Brazil 4.89% 8.07% 5 Greece 4.35% 5.00% 6 Argentina 4.10% 3.85% 7 Saudi Arabia 3.93% 3.95% 8 Russia 3.86% 3.86% 9 Turkey 3.80% 2.43% 10 Taiwan 3.58% 4.27% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 47.52% 47.52% 2 Argentina 44.65% 37.75% 3 China 35.83% 36.07% 4 Hungary 34.79% 26.44% 5 Denmark 33.66% 19.90% 6 Russia 31.21% 31.21% 7 Portugal 25.83% 13.09% 8 Italy 23.22% 10.75% 9 Austria 22.12% 9.75% 10 France 21.74% 9.41% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Laos -3.84% -3.60% 2 India -3.53% -5.35% 3 Slovakia -3.30% -2.70% 4 Mongolia -2.56% -2.09% 5 Bulgaria -2.22% -1.60% 6 Serbia -2.12% -2.11% 7 New Zealand -2.07% -3.04% 8 Kazakhstan -1.86% -2.00% 9 Egypt -1.75% -1.65% 10 Zambia -1.63% -2.24% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Mongolia % % 2 Peru % % 3 Kazakhstan % % 4 Colombia -9.15% % 5 Greece -7.82% % 6 Mauritius -6.91% % 7 Cyprus -6.48% % 8 Bulgaria -5.22% % 9 Kuwait -3.13% -6.12% 10 Zambia -2.49% % Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Tin 6.57% 2 Nickel 5.10% 3 Cotton 5.07% 4 Lumber 4.23% 5 Gasoline 4.04% 6 Rubber 4.01% 7 Brent Crude 2.88% 8 Heat Oil 2.44% 9 Live Cattle 2.14% 10 Lean Hogs 2.02% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoline 39.89% 2 Gasoil 14.64% 3 Lead 11.09% 4 Cotton 10.34% 5 Brent Crude 6.65% 6 Heat Oil 4.42% 7 Rubber 4.22% 8 Zinc 3.08% 9 WTI Crude 2.70% 10 Aluminium 2.59% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Platinum -4.03% 2 Corn -4.02% 3 Natural Gas -3.91% 4 Silver -3.28% 5 Gold -2.06% 6 Palladium -1.81% 7 Wheat -1.72% 8 Orange Juice -1.04% 9 Ethanol -0.93% 10 Copper -0.61% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Lumber % 2 Orange Juice % 3 Tin % 4 Wheat % 5 Coffee % 6 Bean Meal % 7 Rough Rice % 8 Nickel % 9 Natural Gas % 10 Steel Rebar % Page I 9

10 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent. Page I 10