Weekly Market Review May 24, 2015 May 30, 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review May 24, 2015 May 30, 2015 May 31, 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US GDP growth was revised to show GDP shrank at 0.7% annualized rate in 1Q2015 vs. earlier estimate of 0.2% gain Markit s US flash services sector PMI slipped to 56.4 in May from a final 57.4 in Apr. New business activity declined University of Michigan s final consumer sentiment index fell to a 6-month low of 90.7 from 95.9 in Apr Single family home sales rose 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted 517,000 in Apr. March s sales was revised up Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft advanced 1.0% in Apr vs. 1.5% increase in Mar The EC s index of euro-area executive & consumer confidence stood near a 4-year high of in May UK s GDP grew for 9 th straight quarter by 0.3% in 1Q 15, aided by higher consumer spending & business investment French consumer confidence index by INSEE eased slightly since Oct 2014 to 93 in May from 94 in Apr Swedish consumer confidence improved to 98.8 points in May vs. a downwardly revised 96.9 points in Apr Japanese exports climbed 8% YoY, above 6% forecast while imports slid 4.2%, leaving a trade deficit of 53.4bn Retail sales rebounded in Apr, rising 5% YoY vs. 9.7% drop reported in Mar China s industrial sector profit rose 2.6% YoY in Apr, posting their 1 st annual rise since Sep Profit fell 1.3% YTD Brazil s economy contracted by 0.2% QoQ in 1Q2015, less than a Bloomberg median forecast of 0.5% drop Indian economy expanded by 7.3% in FY vs. 6.9% growth recorded in FY GDP grew 7.5% in 4QFY15 South Africa s GDP moved up 1.3% QoQ annualized in 1Q 15 vs. 4.1% in 4Q 14 on lower factory output & drought Trade deficit widened to 2.5bn rand in Apr as exports declined 7.5% while imports fell 4.8% MoM Australian businesses capital spending contracted 4.4% QoQ in 1Q2015 vs. a median forecast of 2.2% drop Singapore s economy expanded an annualized 3.2% QoQ in 1Q2015, above 1.1% estimate led by improved exports The African Development Bank predicted African economies to grow by 4.5% & 5% in 2015 & 2016, respectively, vs. an estimated 3.9% in 2014 as economic prospects improve worldwide Philippines GDP climbed by 5.2% YoY in 1Q2015, below forecasts hit by weak agri. & manufacturing sectors growth Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 18, Nasdaq Comp 5, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 11, CAC 40 5, Nikkei , Hang Seng 27, Brazil - Bovespa 52, , Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 27, Shanghai Comp 4, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES International AirFinance Corp. has picked Nat. Bank of Abu Dhabi and Arab Banking Corp. to arrange a $400mn loan Arabtec received approval from the Egyptian cabinet regarding building of one million homes in Egypt Emirates Global Aluminium is spending $5.2bn to boost capacity of Dubai smelter and build an alumina refinery Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank seeks shareholders approval for a $137mn rights issue and to raise its Sukuk limit by $1bn Waha Capital plans to launch its 2 nd infrastructure fund worth $500mn in 2015 to invest in MENA and Turkey National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah acquired 79.23% stake in Ras Al Khaimah National Insurance Co. for AED317.24mn Etihad Airways FY2014 profit surged 52% YoY to $73mn on higher passenger numbers & increased cargo revenue Marka expects to turn profitable in 2016 vs. 4Q2015 predicted earlier; acquired 65% stake in Icons for AED15.3mn Saudi British Bank completed issuance of SAR1.5bn subordinated Tier II Sukuk through private placement Almarai Company s board of directors approved capital investment of SAR21bn during period Saudi s Sisban Holding signed a contract with Fairmont Intnl. to invest SAR1.5bn, manage Fairmont hotel in Jeddah Etihad Etisalat signed a 3-yr contract worth SAR180mn with Accenture to improve delivery & customer experience Saudi CMA will raise proportion of shares allocated to institutional investors in IPO to reduce volatility Saudi Automotive Services signed a SAR150mn Shari ah-compliant bank facility agreement with Saudi British Bank Etihad Atheeb Telecommunication s FY net loss reduced to SAR56.2mn from SAR249.3mn in FY National Bank of Oman seeks shareholders approval to raise up to $300mn Tier I capital securities Bank Sohar invited banks to participate in a $250mn debut loan to fund its general business activities Bank Dhofar completed the issuance of $300mn AT1 perpetual bonds. The bonds are listed on Irish stock exchange Qatar Elect. & Water Co. & Japan s Mitsubishi Corp. will set up QAR3bn integrated water & power project in Qatar Kuwaiti listed firm United Foodstuff Industries Group plans to set up a new company in Qatar, holding a 50% stake Bahrain s Arab Banking Corp., Dutch ING & France's BNP reportedly submitted non-binding bids for HSBC Turkey DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 4, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 9, Qatar Index 11, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 8, Istanbul 100 Index 82, , Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES The US dollar appreciated for a 2 nd week by 2.15% to per US dollar, shrugging off downbeat US economic data as investors see the Federal Reserve moving closer to raising interest rates this year The Canadian dollar depreciated 1.4% in the week to per US dollar as Canada s GDP fell at 0.6% annualized rate in 1Q2015, keeping alive speculation that Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again in 2015 Brazil s real weakened 2.7% in the week to per US dollar as the Latin American country braced for its worst recession in 25 years after the government reported that the GDP contracted in 1Q2015 Russia s ruble dropped 4.7% in the week to per US dollar. Experts said that the end of a tax period in Russia that supports the ruble and dollar purchases by the Central Bank of Russia weakened the currency. Also, the emerging FIFA scandal drove the ruble down as Russia will host the football world cup in 2018 The finance ministers of G7 nations agreed that inclusion of China s Yuan in the IMF currency basket is desirable, but a technical review must be completed first. Meanwhile, China signed a currency swap agreement with Chile to facilitate the exchange of a maximum 2.2tn pesos for 3 years as it seeks to boost the use of Yuan in Latin America Indian rupee ended the week down 0.48% to per US dollar, led by the month-end dollar demand from importers, mainly oil refiners amidst a higher greenback in the overseas market Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES Gold prices ended down for a 2 nd week by 1.3% as it remained under pressure from expectations that US interest rates might rise soon. The prospect of higher rates boosts the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold while lifting the dollar WTI crude futures gained 0.97% in the week while Brent futures rose 0.3% as a steady US dollar and a bigger than expected drop in US oil rigs in operation set off a renewed rush of bullish bets Rubber futures on the Tokyo commodity exchange surged 10.5% in the week as Japan s currency weakened, boosting the appeal of contracts denominated in yen and as China, the biggest consumer, seeks more than $300bn in infrastructure investment Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures declined 8.6% in the week on weak export prospects and as forecasts for drier weather in the Southern Plains eased concerns about the crop damage Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Sugar futures lost 4.1% in the week on the back of a weak currency of top grower Brazil amid prospects of abundant supplies. Industry group Unica said last week that Brazil s main sugar-producing region would crush 590mn metric tons of cane in the current season, recording a 3.3% YoY increase Corn futures on Chicago exchange dropped for a 2 nd week by 3.7% after the US government lowered its targets for ethanol blending and as corn export demand slumped for the crop harvested this autumn WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES US 10-year yield slid almost 9 bps in the week as data showing the US economy contracted in the first quarter of 2015 supported views of a later Federal Reserve interest-rate hike Italian 10-year bond yield slipped marginally in the week to 1.846% as Italy witnessed strong demand for 6.9bn worth of debt sold on May 28 through 5, 10 and 17-year bonds, towards the upper end of a 5-7bn targeted range Greek 10-year bond yield dropped by 17 bps in the week to 11.06% on prospects of an accord between Athens and its European creditors The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark overnight cash rate unchanged at 0.75% on May 27, in line with expectations, saying the outlook for the Canadian economy and risks to the inflation profile has not materially changed since April The Bank of Israel left its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% for a third straight month on May 25 after improvement in the inflation outlook. Annual inflation rate moved to -0.5% in Apr from -1.0% in Mar Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr South Korea s bonds advanced, with 3-year yields plunging 12 bps in the week to 1.75% as disappointing factory data added to speculation the central bank will cut interest rates further. Industrial output fell 2.7% YoY in April, worse than the estimate of 0.5% decline The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan lowered its main interest rate to 9.5% from 11.0% on May 26, following a decrease in consumer prices in the Central Asian nation US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 37.35% 37.35% 2 Cyprus 3.60% 3.35% 3 Slovakia 2.22% 1.97% 4 Kazakhstan 2.07% 2.14% 5 New Zealand 1.51% -1.30% 6 Japan 1.47% -0.66% 7 Pakistan 1.38% 1.34% 8 Vietnam 1.38% 1.33% 9 Latvia 1.27% 1.02% 10 Mongolia 1.01% 2.25% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela % % 2 China 42.57% 42.75% 3 Hungary 34.54% 25.06% 4 Denmark 31.89% 19.57% 5 Jamaica 29.34% 27.63% 6 Argentina 25.90% 18.53% 7 Italy 23.58% 12.22% 8 Russia 22.52% 22.52% 9 Portugal 21.68% 10.50% 10 Ireland 20.10% 9.06% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Russia -7.84% -7.84% 2 Argentina -5.75% -5.96% 3 Namibia -4.63% -6.68% 4 Qatar -4.35% -4.35% 5 Portugal -4.29% -4.53% 6 Colombia -3.47% -5.03% 7 Germany -3.40% -3.63% 8 Luxembourg -3.36% -3.60% 9 South Africa -3.30% -5.37% 10 Turkey -3.29% -5.61% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Mongolia % % 2 Colombia % % 3 Bulgaria -7.50% % 4 Kazakhstan -7.23% -9.04% 5 Mauritius -5.87% % 6 Cyprus -5.41% % 7 Bahrain -4.22% -4.23% 8 Zambia -3.67% % 9 Kuwait -3.38% -6.63% 10 Turkey -3.20% % Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Rubber 10.51% 2 Soybean Oil 3.35% 3 Palm Oil 1.78% 4 Lumber 1.67% 5 Feeder Cattle 1.29% 6 Cotton 0.97% 7 WTI Crude 0.97% 8 Zinc 0.79% 9 Bean Meal 0.53% 10 Brent Crude 0.29% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoline 43.71% 2 Rubber 17.59% 3 Gasoil 15.76% 4 WTI Crude 7.18% 5 Cotton 6.77% 6 Silver 6.61% 7 Cocoa 6.01% 8 Heat Oil 5.58% 9 Brent Crude 5.57% 10 Lead 4.95% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Natural Gas % 2 Wheat -8.62% 3 Sugar -4.08% 4 Corn -3.70% 5 Platinum -2.96% 6 Copper -2.95% 7 Nickel -2.92% 8 Ethanol -2.79% 9 Orange Juice -2.64% 10 Cocoa -2.47% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Coffee % 2 Steel Rebar % 3 Tin % 4 Wheat % 5 Orange Juice % 6 Sugar % 7 Rough Rice % 8 Lumber % 9 Nickel % 10 Bean Meal % Page I 9

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