Weekly Market Review April 26, 2015 May 2, 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review April 26, 2015 May 2, 2015 May 3, 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equities Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Page I 2

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS US economy expanded at 0.2% annual pace in 1Q2015, slammed by bad weather, strong dollar and low oil prices Institute for Supply Management s national factory activity index stood at 51.5 in Apr, same as in March Construction spending slipped 0.6% to an annual rate of $966.6bn in Mar, lowest since Sep 2014 Markit s final manufacturing PMI fell to 54.1 in Apr from 55.7 in Mar as output growth & new orders fell University of Michigan s overall index of consumer sentiment rose to 95.9 in Apr from 93.0 in Mar RBC/Markit Canadian manufacturing PMI remained nearly unchanged at 49.0 in Apr as compared to 48.9 in Mar Euro zone ended 4 months of deflation as consumer prices remained unchanged YoY in Apr vs. 0.1% decline in Mar The European Commission's economic sentiment indicator fell by 0.2 pts to in Apr while business morale rose 0.09 pts to Household inflation expectations increased for a 3 rd straight month in Apr German unemployment rate dipped to 6.5% in Apr from 6.8% in Mar, the lowest April level since 1990 Moody s cut Greece s credit rating to 'Caa2' from 'Caa1 with a negative outlook on concerns over debt repayments Greece is due to pay around 200mn in interest payments to the IMF on May 6 and 750mn on May 12 Markit UK manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low of 51.9 in Apr from a downwardly revised 54.0 in Mar S&P said the biggest British banks face another 19bn charges for past misconduct over next 2 years French consumer spending declined 0.6% MoM in Mar on lower energy usage, but gained 1.6% in 1Q2015 China official manufacturing PMI stood flat at 50.1 in Apr vs. Mar. Services PMI slid to 53.4 in Apr from 53.7 in Mar Cabinet offered more tax breaks and other benefits to companies to hire jobless to boost employment Markit/JMMA Japan PMI entered into contractionary territory for the 1 st time since May 14 to 49.9 vs in Mar Fitch downgraded Japan's credit rating by one notch to A with a stable outlook Brazil s jobless rate in Mar climbed to 6.2% from 5.9% in Feb as economy slips closer to recession South Korean exports dropped 8.1% YoY in Apr 2015 as shipments to China, the US and the EU all lost ground Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 18, Nasdaq Comp 5, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 11, CAC 40 5, Nikkei , Hang Seng 28, Brazil - Bovespa 56, Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 27, Shanghai Comp 4, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance Page I 3

4 GCC EQUITIES Nakheel s 1Q2015 bottom-line more than doubled to AED1.35bn from AED629mn in 1Q2014 UAE-based imena Holdings plans to raise $100mn through a stake sale in May 2015, to sell shares to public in 2017 Emaar Malls reported a 31.6% YoY jump in its 1Q2015 net profit to AED433mn UAE healthcare provider NMC Health acquired Americare Group and Dr. Sunny Healthcare Group for $100mn Emirates Integrated Telecom. Company s earnings stood flat in 1Q2015 at AED487.1mn vs. AED490.3mn in 1Q2014 National Corp. for Tourism seeks to refinance AED880mn of loans to manage liquidity & meet other requirements Abu Dhabi Investment Authority agreed to buy a 50% stake in three Hong Kong hotels for $2.4bn Dubai Financial Market s bottom-line contracted by 68.5% YoY to AED67.7mn in 1Q2015 United Iron & Steel, a JV between UAE-based Abdul Jalil Group and Saudi-based Safid Group, plans to build a new galvanized steel production plant worth AED1bn in Abu Dhabi Ma aden Gold & Base Metals signed a SAR1.2bn financing agreement with the Saudi Industrial Development Fund Saudi Automotive Services Co. signed a SAR550.9mn Shari ah-compliant financing deal with Banque Saudi Fransi Saudi s Al-Bassam Group will set up a new $751mn fund with Saudi Sumou Holding to invest in Turkish real estate Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait reported a net profit of KWD9.1mn in 1Q2015 as compared to KWD8.1mn in 1Q2014 Jazeera Airways Group s earnings jumped 44.6% YoY in 1Q2015 to KWD3.0mn. Operating profit surged 141.2% YoY HSBC Bank Oman s net profit jumped 22.6% YoY to OMR3.8mn in 1Q2015. Net interest income grew by 5.2% YoY Qatar Electricity & Water Co. inaugurated QAR6bn 2,000 MW power project in Sur province of Oman Qatar s Barwa Real Estate s net profit soared 1,127.6% YoY (jumped 54.7% QoQ) to QAR3.25bn in 1Q2015 Ooredoo Qatar s net income plunged 43% YoY to QAR501mn, impacted by adverse currency movements Bahrain Telecommunication Company s net income in 1Q2015 slid 1.6% YoY to BHD14.2mn Bahrain-listed Arab Banking Corporation s net income declined to $52mn in 1Q2015 from $71mn in 1Q2014 Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 4, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 9, Qatar Index 12, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 8, Istanbul 100 Index 83, , DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance Page I 4

5 CURRENCIES US dollar rose 0.97% in the week to Japanese yen on signs that the US economy may be stabilizing. A jump in consumer sentiment in April and stronger-than-expected vehicle sales suggested the economy was finding some footing and supported the dollar Euro posted its biggest weekly gain versus the dollar in 6 weeks, appreciating 3.0% to per dollar on signs the European Central Bank s stimulus plan has the region s economy ready to generate stronger growth and inflation UK pound weakened 0.26% in the week to per dollar as data showed British manufacturing growth slowed sharply in April, underlining the uneven nature of economic recovery Brazil s real depreciated 2.14% in the week to per dollar as the Brazilian government reported its smallest primary budget surplus for the month of March in five years, questioning its ability to meet the year s fiscal goal Russia s ruble fell 2.05% in the week to per dollar following a central bank decision to cut its key interest by 150 bps, more than forecasted Indian rupee lost 0.22% in the week to per dollar, led by the poor performance of Indian equities (down 1.5% in the week) and the month-end dollar demand Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance Page I 5

6 COMMODITIES West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advanced 3.5% in the week as the US Department of Energy inventory report showed a 500,000-barrel drop in petroleum stocks to 61.7mn barrels at the key Cushing, Oklahoma trading hub, marking the 1 st drop since Nov 2014 Gold prices in the spot market slipped 0.07% in the week as a report showed US jobless claims fell to a 15-year low, backing the case for Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later in 2015 Copper futures climbed 6.4% in the week as data signaled a second month of manufacturing activity expansion in China, biggest consumer of the metal Coffee futures dropped around 5.5% in the week on a firmer US currency and lack of roaster buying Sugar futures declined 2.4% in the week, pressured by a record delivery of 1.9mn tons of raw sugar against the May contract and the firm US dollar Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Palm oil futures lost 4.4% in the week amid concerns over rising crude palm oil production in key growers. The US Department of Agriculture expects stronger Malaysian palm production between Apr and Sep 2015 versus 2014, due to a recovery in flood-affected areas and better growing conditions in some parts WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance Page I 6

7 INTEREST RATES US 10-year yield jumped 20.5 bps in the week to 2.11% as recent reports suggested a stabilizing US economy, fueling speculation that Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year Sweden s central bank, the Riksbank left its main interest rate steady at minus 0.25% while expanding its assetpurchase program by between 40bn and 50bn Swedish kronor, taking the total asset buys to between 80bn and 90bn Swedish kronor Brazil s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate Selic to 13.25% from 12.75% on Apr 29, The latest rate increase brings the Selic close to where it was in early 2009, when it reached 13.75% Mexico's central bank, Banco de Mexico left its key rate unchanged at 3.0% on Apr 30, pointing to persistently sluggish economic growth and noting that inflation pressures remained muted following a deep slump in the peso The Bank of Russia cut the benchmark interest rate to 12.5% from 14.0% on Apr 30, saying inflation and risks to the ruble have subsided while economic growth is suffering Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr New Zealand s central bank maintained the official cash rate at 3.5% on April 30, and said it will keep interest rates at a stimulatory level and would cut them if demand and prices weaken US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance Page I 7

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Jamaica 9.92% 9.69% 2 Greece 8.05% 11.29% 3 Dubai UAE 3.45% 3.45% 4 Kazakhstan 2.84% 2.85% 5 Saudi Arabia 2.29% 2.27% 6 Peru 2.26% 2.40% 7 Mongolia 2.04% 2.20% 8 Botswana 1.67% 2.78% 9 Colombia 1.59% 4.23% 10 Bulgaria 1.58% 4.61% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 49.48% 49.48% 2 Argentina 40.46% 33.49% 3 China 37.31% 37.36% 4 Hungary 35.94% 31.10% 5 Russia 30.18% 30.18% 6 Denmark 29.46% 19.53% 7 Portugal 27.00% 17.56% 8 Jamaica 25.85% 24.81% 9 Italy 21.22% 12.21% 10 Austria 19.73% 10.84% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Indonesia -6.42% -6.61% 2 Sweden -4.15% -1.54% 3 Ireland -3.67% -0.78% 4 Belgium -3.31% -0.42% 5 Netherlands -3.21% -0.30% 6 Denmark -3.14% -0.31% 7 Germany -3.02% -0.11% 8 France -2.98% -0.07% 9 Philippine -2.92% -3.68% 10 Argentina -2.89% -3.09% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Mongolia % % 2 Peru -9.65% % 3 Kazakhstan -8.49% % 4 Colombia -7.71% -8.29% 5 Cyprus -6.46% % 6 Mauritius -5.74% % 7 Bulgaria -3.72% % 8 Egypt -2.85% -8.30% 9 Indonesia -2.69% -6.90% 10 Bahrain -2.52% -2.52% Page I 8

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Natural Gas 9.68% 2 Copper 6.41% 3 Lean Hogs 5.63% 4 Aluminium 4.80% 5 Rubber 4.78% 6 Zinc 4.41% 7 Nickel 4.21% 8 WTI Crude 3.50% 9 Heat Oil 2.80% 10 Silver 2.70% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoline 42.50% 2 Gasoil 17.08% 3 Lead 13.67% 4 Cotton 10.92% 5 Rubber 9.30% 6 Brent Crude 8.58% 7 Zinc 7.62% 8 Heat Oil 7.34% 9 WTI Crude 6.29% 10 Copper 3.68% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Live Cattle -7.45% 2 Coffee -5.46% 3 Palm Oil -4.43% 4 Steel Rebar -3.50% 5 Wheat -3.29% 6 Sugar -2.42% 7 Corn -1.30% 8 Lumber -0.85% 9 Soybean Oil -0.73% 10 Feeder Cattle -0.57% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Lumber % 2 Wheat % 3 Coffee % 4 Orange Juice % 5 Tin % 6 Natural Gas % 7 Steel Rebar % 8 Bean Meal % 9 Rough Rice % 10 Sugar % Page I 9

10 IMPORTANT NOTICE This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc ( Mashreq ) in the United Arab Emirates ( U.A.E. ). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq s prior express consent. Page I 10