Weekly Market Review. 12 th April th April 2015

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Review 12 th April th April 2015

2 CONTENTS International Equity Markets GCC Equity Currencies Commodities Interest Rates Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

3 INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS Fitch affirmed AAA rating of US with a stable outlook, citing strength of national economy and capital markets US retail sales increased 0.9% in Mar, snapping 3 straight months of decline & registering largest gain since Mar 14 US CPI increased 0.2% in Mar after registering similar gain in Feb, led by rising gasoline & house costs University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 95.9 in Apr from 93.0 in Mar IMF kept global growth forecast for 2015 unchanged at 3.5%, cuts US expansion forecast by 0.5% to 3.1% in Euro zone forecasted to expand 1.5% while emerging market growth projected to slow to 4.3% from 4.6% in 2014 WTO trims global trade growth forecast to 3.3% & 4.0% in 2015 & 2016, respectively on sluggish economic growth Euro zone industrial production rose 1.1% MoM in Feb, registering strongest monthly increase in ten months Exports rose 4% while imports remained flat in Feb, resulting in 20.3bn trade surplus, up ~41% YoY Germany s leading economic institutes raised 2015 growth forecast to 2.1% from 1.2% on low euro, cheap oil UK inflation rate remained zero for a 2 nd month in Mar, leaving little pressure on the BoE to raise interest rates Unemployment rate stood at 5.6% in the 3 months to Feb 15; no. of people employed rose to 31.05mn S&P cut Greece's credit rating deeper into junk territory from B- to CCC+, citing worsening economic conditions The World Bank cuts 2015 growth forecast for developing East Asia & Pacific region from 6.9% to 6.7% Japan core machinery orders fell by 0.4% MoM in Feb, a sign soft investment may challenge efforts to boost growth Sweden s consumer prices rose less than estimated by 0.2% in Mar even as central bank cut rates in Mar 2015 China s economy grew 7% YoY in 1Q2015, slowest in 6 years, raising bets of more stimulus by govt. to boost growth China s exports surprisingly contracted 15% YoY in Mar 2015, raising concerns about slacking Chinese economy Banks disbursed Yuan 1.18tn worth of new loans in Mar vs. Yuan 1.02tn in Feb, beating expectations Average home prices fell 6.1% YoY in 70 major cities for the 7 th consecutive month in Mar Brazil central bank s economic activity index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.36% MoM in Feb vs. forecast of 0.2% drop Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % S&P 500 2, DJI 17, Nasdaq Comp 4, Euro Stoxx FTSE 100 6, Dax 11, CAC 40 5, Nikkei , Hang Seng 27, Brazil - Bovespa 53, Russia - Micex 1, BSE Sensex 28, Shanghai Comp 4, S&P year performance Euro Stoxx year performance

4 GCC EQUITIES Abraaj Group closed a $990mn sub-saharan Africa fund; European & North American investors committed 64% Emirates Airlines signed a deal to buy 217 A380 engines from Rolls-Royce valued at $9.2bn Dubai Islamic Bank s earnings jumped 34% YoY in 1Q2015 to AED850mn. Total income rose 19% YoY to AED1.77bn Drake & Scull Eng. was awarded a MEP works contract for upcoming buildings on Palm Jumeirah worth AED344mn Dubai-based business park operator TECOM Investments closed an AED4bn loan after raising AED3.53bn in Jan 15 Waha Capital plans to invest more than $1bn in energy and other assets in the UAE and wider Arabian Gulf region DAMAC Properties plans to deliver more than 35,000 residential units & hotel apartments in Dubai over next 5 yrs Saudi Arabia announced to open its $532bn stock market to direct foreign investors on June 15, 2015 Saudi Arabian Mining Company s net income in 1Q2105 more than doubled to SAR260.9mn Saudi-based Cayan Group unveiled property projects worth AED3.1bn in Dubai and Riyadh Al Rajhi Bank s bottom-line in 1Q2015 declined 10.96% YoY to SAR1.52bn. Loans & advances grew 6.25% YoY Saudi Arabia fertilizers earnings dropped 30.0% in 1Q2015 from 1Q2014 to SAR590mn Yanbu National Petrochemical s net income slumped 48.7% YoY in 1Q2015 to SAR285.1mn Saudi-based Taiba Holding Co. reported that its net profit soared 240% YoY to SAR202.3mn in 1Q2015 Saudi Hollandi Bank recorded an increase of 29.25% in its net income to SR538.94mn in 1Q2015 from 1Q2014 Kuwait s IFA Hotels & Resorts plans to build luxury hotel apartments on Dubai s Palm Jumeirah at a cost of $545mn National Bank of Oman s 1Q2015 bottom-line jumped 23% YoY to OMR12.6mn Qatar-based Gulf International Services reported an 88.6% YoY surge in 1Q2015 net profit to QAR355.7mn Gulf Finance House s shareholders approved to reduce share capital from $1.49bn to $598mn to eliminate losses Bahrain-based Jawad business raised $235mn through term loan and revolving facility to refinance existing debt Al Baraka Banking Group s unit successfully closed a $268mn syndicated Murabaha financing facility Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Dubai 4, Abu Dhabi 4, Saudi Tadawul 9, Qatar Index 11, Kuwait Index 6, Oman MSM 30 6, Bahrain All Share 1, Egypt EGX 30 8, Istanbul 100 Index 82, DFMGI 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul 1 year performance

5 CURRENCIES US dollar declined 1.9% in the week to per euro after data showing a rise in consumer prices failed to alleviate concerns that recent soft US economic data could delay the Federal Reserve's first rate hike British pound strengthened 2.3% in the week to US dollars helped by a strong labor market data and a weaker US currency led by increasing bets that Fed will postpone interest rate increase due to a set of dovish data Canadian dollar appreciated 2.6% in the week to per dollar as data showed the nation's annual consumer price inflation rose more-than-expected by 1.2% in Mar, while retail sales strengthened strongly by 1.7% in Feb Chinese Yuan gained 0.17% in the week to per dollar after the People's Bank of China fixed its daily guidance rate to more than two-month high, further strengthening views that the Yuan will remain stable Malaysia s ringgit climbed 1.2% in the week to per dollar, completing a fourth weekly gain as a rebound in oil prices boosted sentiment for the ringgit, which is Asia s worst-performing currency in 2015 The Singapore dollar advanced 1.6% in the week to per dollar as the Monetary Authority of Singapore kept the slope, width and mid-point of the Singapore dollar's policy band unchanged and said it would maintain its policy of a "modest and gradual" appreciation of the Singapore dollar Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD USD/BRl USD/RUB USD/INR USD/CNY DXY Index EUR/USD 1 year performance GBP/USD 1 year performance

6 COMMODITIES West Texas Intermediate Crude futures gained 7.9% in the week while Brent futures also rose 7.6% as OPEC said crude demand is expected to improve to about 29.3mn barrels per day (bpd) in The group also projected demand for non-opec supplies to drop by about 165,000 bpd, while anticipating an end to US supply boom in 2015 Copper futures gained 1.2% in the week amid speculation policymakers in China will have to introduce further stimulus measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth as data showed China grew at the slowest pace in 1Q2015 since the global financial crisis in 2008 Nickel futures fell for a 4 th straight week by 0.54% as stockpiles of the metal tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to 433,752 tons, after approaching the all-time high 435,048 tons on March 30, signaling ample supplies Cotton futures declined 2.72% in the week as persisting weak demand sent prices below a key technical level, sparking selling. A continued surge in certified stocks in ICE warehouses continued to weigh on prices, suggesting weak demand in the physical market Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % Gold spot 1, Silver spot Copper-CMX Brent - ICE WTI - Nymex S&P GSCI Spot Index Baltic Dry Index Sugar futures on the ICE exchange rallied 3.2% in the week, buoyed by short-covering and weakness in US dollar Cocoa future increased 2.1% in the week after data showed European 1Q2015 grindings, a measure of demand, fell by 1.6% YoY, better than an expected drop of 3-7% while a lower greenback attracted buyers The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index rose 2.9% in the week as the average daily earnings for capesize and panamax vessels improved WTI Crude 1 year performance GOLD 1 year performance

7 INTEREST RATES US treasury bonds climbed, sending the 10-year yields down 8.2 bps in the week to 1.87% as investors dropped riskier assets during a stock selloff fueled by Greek default fears and new Chinese regulations that will enable investors to bet that highflying stocks will fall in value The European Central Bank held the benchmark main refinancing rate at 0.05% for the sixth meeting in a row on Apr 15, 2015 The yield on 10-year Greek debt climbed 166 bps in the week to 12.9%, the highest since Dec 2012 as the nation failed to make tangible headway in its efforts to secure funding and avoid a default The UK Debt Management Office delayed the auction of 3bn short-dated Treasury bills as Bloomberg terminals used by traders, investors and governments around the world suffered a two and a half hour outage on Apr 17 Poland s central bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1.5% and shrugged off risks to the economy from an appreciating zloty Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD % USD-1w Libor USD-3m Libor USD-6m Libor USD-10yr AED-1m EIBOR AED-3m EIBOR AED-12m EIBOR UK-10yr Japan-10yr The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest unchanged at 0.75%, in line with expectations and said risks to the outlook for inflation are roughly balanced and risks to financial stability appear to be evolving as expected Indonesia s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged for a second month at 5.5%, refraining from easing policy as inflationary pressures reappear US 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield 1 year performance

8 EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Dubai UAE 8.68% 8.68% 2 China 6.27% 6.46% 3 Romania 4.12% 5.78% 4 Saudi Arabia 3.36% 3.37% 5 Pakistan 2.73% 3.04% 6 Sri Lanka 2.69% 2.65% 7 South Korea 2.67% 3.53% 8 Vietnam 2.58% 2.65% 9 Serbia 2.24% 3.64% 10 Jordan 2.18% 2.09% YTD Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Venezuela 39.45% 39.45% 2 Argentina 38.94% 32.65% 3 China 32.54% 32.70% 4 Denmark 30.02% 15.93% 5 Hungary 28.21% 20.40% 6 Russia 26.34% 26.34% 7 Portugal 25.07% 11.71% 8 Italy 21.21% 8.26% 9 France 20.37% 7.52% 10 Austria 19.88% 7.08% Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change (USD Adj.) 1 Greece -5.96% -4.16% 2 Germany -5.54% -3.74% 3 Portugal -4.86% -3.04% 4 Italy -3.49% -1.65% 5 Denmark -3.47% -1.46% 6 Spain -3.32% -1.48% 7 Bahrain -3.14% -3.13% 8 Belgium -3.08% -1.23% 9 Luxembourg -2.71% -0.86% 10 Sweden -2.60% -0.46% Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.) 1 Peru % % 2 Greece % % 3 Mongolia % % 4 Colombia -9.85% % 5 Kazakhstan -9.33% % 6 Mauritius -6.30% % 7 Cyprus -6.11% % 8 Turkey -3.85% % 9 Kuwait -3.67% -6.35% 10 Bulgaria -3.06% %

9 COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST WEEKLY YTD Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Lean Hogs 12.75% 2 Gasoil 9.37% 3 WTI Crude 7.94% 4 Brent Crude 7.63% 5 Gasoline 6.78% 6 Heat Oil 6.59% 7 Natural Gas 4.90% 8 Sugar 3.20% 9 Ethanol 3.06% 10 Palm Oil 3.02% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Gasoline 34.46% 2 Gasoil 12.79% 3 Lead 9.36% 4 Cotton 5.01% 5 Brent Crude 3.66% 6 Silver 3.62% 7 Heat Oil 1.94% 8 Gold 1.64% 9 Aluminium 1.62% 10 WTI Crude 1.42% Ref Commodity Weekly Change 1 Tin % 2 Lumber -7.05% 3 Wheat -6.08% 4 Rough Rice -3.46% 5 Cotton -2.72% 6 Rubber -1.24% 7 Silver -1.20% 8 Live Cattle -0.63% 9 Nickel -0.55% 10 Gold -0.27% Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change 1 Lumber % 2 Tin % 3 Orange Juice % 4 Nickel % 5 Coffee % 6 Wheat % 7 Rough Rice % 8 Bean Meal % 9 Lean Hogs % 10 Steel Rebar %

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