FX & Markets Weekly. Week 22/2015. DenizBank AG Economic Research and Development Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 22/2015 DenizBank AG Economic Research and Development Vienna, Austria

2 Commodities drop across the board on USD strength Following last week s declines, this week was similar for commodities. All but one energy Future, and all but one type of metal tumbled. With respect to crude, the largest U.S. ETF that tracks oil (United States Oil Fund USO ) had the largest outflows in April and May for the last 6 years. Investors also cut holdings in gold ETFs, while the Dollar spot index is set for a 2 nd weekly advance. USD/JPY rises to 14-year high USD extended its rise against the JPY this week (+21% in 12 months) and surpassed even its June 2007 peak to reach a 14- year high. Janet Yellen signalled at the Senate Banking Committee that the economy is on solid ground and she saw hints wages may be starting to pick up. She deemed it as appropriate to raise borrowing cost this year. While the momentum measured by the MACD is supporting our bullish sentiment on this currency pair, the RSI indicates an imminent turn that is not going to be long-lasting. Also the Nikkei 225 equity index headed for its 11 th consecutive day of gains. RUB heads for its 1 st monthly decline in 2015 RUB declined 4,86% against the EUR (by the time of writing), and 5,61% vs. the USD this week. The Central Bank of Russia bought FX to accumulate reserves. Although Russia switched to a free floating exchange rate regime in November 2014, these interventions signal the CBR is willing to defend current levels. Venezuela stocks broaden performance The Caracas stock market extended its rally (+94% since May 19) after Venezuela signed a deal with Russia to double oil production in the coming years. A total of USD 14bn is going to be invested in Venezuela s oil and gas sector by Rosneft. Venezuela is one of the world s largest oil exporters and claims to have the world s largest crude reserves. But at the same time the country is heavily dependent on petro-dollars as it is estimated to gain 96% of its export revenues from oil. In terms of exchange rate there are other specifics. Venezuela has maintained capital controls since 2003 and currently has 3 legal exchange rates vs. USD (6,3 for Cencoex companies, 12 for Sicad companies, and 199 bolivars per dollar for Simadi companies). These rates are for valuation and reporting purposes and are pre-set by the government. Corporations are in one group depending on what they export. However, on the black market USD/VEF is currently around 397. The incredible equity rally (+406% in 12 months) is fuelled by the black market exchange rate.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,0966-0,35-1,52-1,82 WTI crude 59,36-2,55-1,15 6,73 EUR/TRY 2,922 2,09-1,21 3,70 BRENT crude 64,56-1,58-3,31-0,77 EUR/CHF 1,0345-0,40-0,98-3,42 GAS oil 591,25-1,71-1,09 1,90 EUR/GBP 0, ,14-0,24-1,17 Heating oil 192,00-3,33-1,63-0,57 EUR/JPY 136,09 1,76 2,95 1,41 Natural gas 2,65-11,49-0,34-7,47 EUR/RUB 57,4575 4,50 1,14-17,96 Gold Spot 1.189,94-1,29-1,58-1,43 EUR/CNY 6,7929-1,79-0,43-3,26 Silver Spot 16,74-2,11 0,48 1,84 USD/TRY 2,6641 2,42 0,36 5,60 Platinum Spot 1.114,92-2,69-3,90-6,24 USD/JPY 124,1 2,09 4,52 3,28 Palladium Spot 784,05-0,71-0,08-5,61 USD/RUB 52,3988 4,87 2,69-15,70 Copper 275,05-3,46-1,75 2,33 USD/CNY 6,1976 0,00-0,03-1,20 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 05/29/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,38-0,36 3,28 Austria 122,03 0,52-1,30 0,40 BIST ,29-3,49-1,39 Belgium 113,26 0,51-1,62 0,56 CAC ,13-0,12 1,66 China 103,39-1,27-1,73 3,55 DAX ,49 0,15 0,43 EFSF 120,83 0,46-1,43 0,33 Dow Jones ,58-0,21-0,74 ESM 113,59 0,71-2,04 0,47 Euro Stoxx ,51-0,83-0,34 France 113,05 0,51-1,27 0,45 FTSE ,05 1,02 1,01 Germany 109,41 0,80-1,14 0,27 HANG SENG ,36-3,44 10,48 Greece 57,29 0,39-0,09 11,83 IBEX ,62-1,12 0,65 Japan 104,32 0,25-0,61 0,21 MICEX ,52-1,84-6,75 Portugal 120,80-1,15-3,34 2,19 NASDAQ ,42 0,50 1,57 Spain 127,89-0,41-2,47 1,51 NIKKEI ,47 2,51 9,39 Russia 85,75-1,15 2,08 10,70 S&P ,14-0,01 0,10 Switzerland 133,17 0,62 0,32-0,29 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 89,20-0,79 1,20 9,00 Futures UK 101,00 0,78 0,31 1,60 Bobl 128,87 0,25-0,15-0,37 US 98,02 0,67-0,48 1,91 Bund 155,41 0,91-1,48-1,18 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 2,7925 2,35-0,45 4,62 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) 588-2,97-1,18 8,89 WAC of CBRT (T -1) 8,28 0,98 0,36 7,39 VIX 14,32 18,08 6,80 7,20 Gold TRY / gram 101,92 1,08-1,25 4,15 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 211,697 3,94-4,33 5,17 TR Gov. Bond 2Y 9,88 1,96-1,10 12,15 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 1.009,52-2,71-4,72 1,94 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,104 1,89-31,65-262,50 USD Libor O/N 0,121-2,42-1,63 4,31 Euribor 1 Month -0,059-13,46-55, ,00 USD Libor 1M 0,184-0,46 2,08 6,36 Euribor 3 Month -0,012 0,00-140,00-130,77 USD Libor 3M 0,284-0,26 2,01 8,36 Euribor 6 Month 0,049-9,26-19,67-55,46 USD Libor 6M 0,425 1,43 4,17 11,54 Euribor 12 Month 0,160-1,24-4,19-31,33 USD Libor 12M 0,750 1,64 7,25 10,31 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,117 33,61 30,81-963,23 TRY Libor O/N 10,870 0,05 0,51 2,19 EUR Libor 1M -0,069-2,13-24,67-966,41 TRY Libor 1M 10,865 0,01 0,98 7,17 EUR Libor 3M -0,016-9,94-120,03-162,84 TRY Libor 3M 10,810 0,10 0,75 6,03 EUR Libor 6M 0,055 2,67 4,05-32,46 TRY Libor 6M 10,779 0,17 1,63 13,70 EUR Libor 12M 0,173 0,42-1,22-16,55 TRY Libor 12M 10,779 0,17 1,43 13,71

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 05/26/ :30 US Durable Goods Orders Apr -0.5% -0.5% 4.0% 05/26/ :30 US Durables Ex Transportation Apr 0.3% 0.5% -0.2% 05/26/ :30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Apr 0.3% 1.0% -0.5% 05/26/ :30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Apr 0.2% 0.8% -0.4% 05/26/ :00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 05/26/ :00 US House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1Q 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 05/26/ :00 US S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA Mar 0.90% 0.95% 0.93% 05/26/ :00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Mar 4.60% 5.04% 5.03% 05/26/ :00 US S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA Mar /26/ :45 US Markit US Composite PMI May P /26/ :45 US Markit US Services PMI May P /26/ :00 US New Home Sales Apr 508K 517K 481K 05/26/ :00 US New Home Sales MoM Apr 5.6% 6.8% -11.4% 05/26/ :00 US Consumer Confidence Index May /26/ :00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May /26/ :30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May /27/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications May % -1.5% 05/28/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims May K 282K 274K 05/28/ :30 US Continuing Claims May K 2222K 2211K 05/28/ :00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Apr 0.9% 3.4% 1.1% 05/28/ :00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Apr 10.9% 13.4% 13.4% 05/29/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S -0.9% -0.7% 0.2% 05/29/ :30 US Personal Consumption 1Q S 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 05/29/ :30 US GDP Price Index 1Q S -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 05/29/ :30 US Core PCE QoQ 1Q S 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 05/29/ :45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager May /28/ :00 EU Economic Confidence May /28/ :00 EU Business Climate Indicator May /28/ :00 EU Industrial Confidence May /28/ :00 EU Services Confidence May 6,7 7,8 6,7 05/28/ :00 EU Consumer Confidence May F /29/ :00 EU M3 Money Supply YoY Apr 4.9% 5.3% 4.6% 05/29/ :00 EU M3 3-month average Apr 4.5% 4.7% 4.1% 05/27/2015 TR Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY Apr % 2.4% 05/29/ :00 TR Trade Balance Apr -4.80B -4.97B -6.15B 05/27/ :00 RU CPI WoW May % 0.1% 05/27/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD May % 8.2% 05/28/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve May B 362.3B 05/29/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def May T 7.97T

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research and Development Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu; Members of the Supervisory Board: Sergey Gorkov, Hakan Ates, Dr. Kurt Heindl, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.