FX & Markets Weekly. Week 26/2018. Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Chief Economist Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 26/2018 Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Chief Economist Vienna, Austria

2 Crude oil rises despite OPEC+ output expansion OPEC and its allies agreed on an output increase of 1 million barrels a day. At the same time, the Trump administration put pressure on Iran s crude oil export market. The penalty for buying Iranian crude oil beyond November 4, 2018 is for any international company to be excluded from the U.S. financial system. WTI crude for August delivery was sold for USD 73,3 a barrel (+6,75% week over week), and Brent for USD 78,7 (+2,89%). Lira outperforms along with Turkey assets This week, the lira outperformed all currencies in our basket. TRY gained 6% against the ARS, 3,67% against CNY, 3,56% against ZAR, 3,51% against JPY, 3,30% against GBP, 3,01% against CHF, 2,80% against EUR and 2,51% against USD. The BIST100 stock market index climbed over 1% to above points again. Among the sub-indices, transportation including airlines gained the most (+6,5%), followed by IT stocks (+4,79%), and REITs (+2,95%). U.S. stocks drop as real GDP growth slows Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2,0% in 1Q18, according to the 3 rd estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, after 2,9% real GDP increase in 4Q17. The U.S. economy expanded in the first quarter at a slower pace than previously estimated, reflecting downward revisions to spending on services and to inventory investment. So, the import tariffs imposed by the U.S., and its trading partners to retaliate are starting to negatively impact the U.S. economy. U.S. stock market indices tumbled across the board, with NASDAQ suffering the most (- 2,567%), followed by S&P500 (-1,21%), and Dow Jones (- 1,00%). Like in the other week, also European and Asia Pacific Stock market indices plunged on rising protectionism threats. Euro area inflation hits 2,00% again HICP, the harmonized index of consumer prices, rose to 2,00% in June, up from 1,9% in May. So the ECB has met its inflation goal, hence reached price stability, and needs to maintain it. The path of, and outlook for inflation will drive the ECB s monetary policy. A hike is needed earlier than dovish Draghi says.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,1645-0,04 0,87-5,25 WTI crude 73,52 7,01 10,16 14,60 EUR/TRY 5,3268-2,29 1,44 9,82 BRENT crude 78,69 4,10 4,19 15,05 EUR/CHF 1,1560 0,39 0,93-1,72 GAS oil 670,50 3,75 0,79 10,10 EUR/GBP 0,8855 0,79 1,59 1,01 Heating oil 218,95 2,92 0,30 8,39 EUR/JPY 128,85 0,53 2,58-1,49 Natural gas 2,91-0,98-0,24 2,42 EUR/RUB 73,1413-0,57 0,87 3,77 Gold Spot 1 250,91-1,50-3,89-5,41 EUR/CNY 7,7066 1,86 3,97-0,33 Silver Spot 16,04-2,54-2,26-1,60 USD/TRY 4,5724-2,22 0,57 16,01 Platinum Spot 850,91-2,95-5,97-8,27 USD/JPY 110,65 0,59 1,70 3,95 Palladium Spot 954,07-0,44-2,60 0,33 USD/RUB 62,8131-0,31 0,01 9,56 Copper 297,15-2,49-3,58-2,99 USD/CNY 6,6188 1,75 3,14 5,23 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 06/29/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,82-2,16-4,92 Austria 103,00 0,35 0,27 0,37 BIST ,27-7,65-15,47 Belgium 104,72 0,29 0,18 0,39 CAC ,01-1,94 3,20 China 101,78 0,95 1,15 3,45 DAX ,04-2,71 1,87 EFSF 113,46-0,07-0,36-0,24 Dow Jones (T-1) ,00-0,60 0,47 ESM 111,24-0,04-0,31 0,02 Euro Stoxx ,14-0,75 1,22 France 98,78 0,21 0,26 0,39 FTSE ,28 0,36 8,56 Germany 98,96 0,13-0,43 0,13 HANG SENG ,31-5,02-3,78 Greece 98,58 0,83 5,94 3,97 IBEX ,57 1,23 0,39 Japan 101,07-0,01 0,03-0,04 MOEX ,73-1,39-0,38 Portugal 110,71 0,11 2,52 1,44 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,58 1,52 6,85 Spain 101,65 0,20 1,97 1,08 NIKKEI ,94-0,24 5,41 Russia 103,79-0,36-2,21 7,68 S&P 500 (T-1) ,22 0,98 2,86 Switzerland 111,75 0,02-1,14-0,25 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 82,40 0,36-10,48 15,59 Futures UK 102,12 0,33-0,76 1,22 Bobl 132,11-0,05-0,33 1,11 US 93,77 0,43-0,37 2,84 Bund 162,44 0,18-0,22 1,97 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 4,9494-2,02 1,01 12,55 Baltic Dry Index ,89 25,73 25,97 WAC of CBRT (T-1) 17,75 0,11 7,76 39,45 VIX 16,19 16,70-5,58-19,53 Gold TRY / gram 183,89-3,69-3,35 9,73 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 303,508 1,01 17,26 54,66 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 19,25 0,37 12,97 36,72 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 1 046,71-3,80-7,06-10,48 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia -0,366-0,27 0,27-0,27 USD Libor O/N 1,935 0,38 13,28 14,06 Euribor 1 Month -0,370 0,00 0,27 0,54 USD Libor 1M 2,090-0,36 5,55 11,00 Euribor 3 Month -0,321 0,62 0,00 2,13 USD Libor 3M 2,336-0,13 1,24 1,04 Euribor 6 Month -0,270-0,75-0,37 0,37 USD Libor 6M 2,501-0,25 1,27 1,99 Euribor 12 Month -0,181-0,56 2,69 4,74 USD Libor 12M 2,764-0,46 2,09 3,81 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,439 0,65-0,29-0,99 TRY Libor O/N 18,592 0,32 8,29 39,49 EUR Libor 1M -0,394 0,72 1,36 3,09 TRY Libor 1M 19,018 0,06 8,83 39,35 EUR Libor 3M -0,357 2,91-1,67 3,66 TRY Libor 3M 19,286 0,00 8,78 38,06 EUR Libor 6M -0,319-0,31-3,82 2,02 TRY Libor 6M 19,819 0,10 7,90 37,23 EUR Libor 12M -0,231 0,62-1,25 6,05 TRY Libor 12M 20,463 0,10 8,30 36,20

4 Date Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 06/25/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index May /26/ :00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Jun /26/ :00 US Conf. Board Present Situation Jun /26/ :00 US Conf. Board Expectations Jun /28/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jun k 227k 218k 06/28/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q T 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 06/28/ :30 US GDP Price Index 1Q T 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 06/28/ :30 US Continuing Claims Jun k 1705k 1723k 06/28/ :30 US Personal Consumption 1Q T 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 06/28/ :30 US Core PCE QoQ 1Q T % 2.3% 06/28/ :45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jun /28/ :00 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Jun /29/ :30 US Personal Income May 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 06/29/ :30 US Personal Spending May 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 06/29/ :30 US PCE Core MoM May 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 06/29/ :30 US PCE Core YoY May 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 06/27/ :00 EA M3 Money Supply YoY May 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 06/28/ :00 EA Consumer Confidence Jun F /29/ :00 EA CPI Estimate YoY Jun 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 06/29/ :00 EA CPI Core YoY Jun A 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 06/28/ :00 EA Economic Confidence Jun /28/ :00 EA Business Climate Indicator Jun /28/ :00 EA Industrial Confidence Jun /28/ :00 EA Services Confidence Jun /29/ :00 TR Trade Balance May -7.70b -7.76b -6.69b 06/25/ :30 TR Capacity Utilization Jun % 77.9% 06/25/ :30 TR Real Sector Confidence NSA Jun /25/ :30 TR Real Sector Confidence SA Jun /28/ :00 TR Economic Confidence Jun /28/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Bond Invest Jun $132m -$460m 06/28/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Stock Invest Jun $225m $289m 06/28/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve b 462.4b 06/29/ :00 RU Current Account Balance 1Q F m 28800m 06/27/ :00 RU CPI WoW Jun % 0.1% 06/27/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD Jun % 1.8% 06/29/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Jun t 10.18t

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Chief Economist, DenizBank AG Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes as a marketing communication pursuant to Article 36 paragraph 2 of the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565 of 25 April The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the reproduction of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase/sell the products named nor is it an investment research pursuant to Article 36 paragraph 1 of the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565 of 25 April Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Timur Kozintsev, Ruslan Abil, Alexander Vedyakhin, Pavel Barchugov, Hayri Cansever; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.