FX & Markets Weekly. Week 17/2017. Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 17/2017 Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

2 French 1 st round vote outcome fuels risk appetite French voters sent centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen into the runoff on May 7. Macron, a first-time candidate and political independent, had 23,8% and National Front leader Le Pen had 21,5%. The result means that for the first time in modern French political history, both establishment parties were eliminated in the first round. So the antiestablishment voting trend is ongoing in general but in favour of other political movements like e.g. communism in France and not only into far-right direction. In the 2 nd round Macron is widely anticipated as the winner by a large margin. That is the component driving risk-on sentiment on financial markets. The VIX declined by over 26% week on week, and its European equivalent the VSTOXX dropped by over 35%. Amazing week for global stock markets Core European stock markets were on the rise this week, thanks to the EU-friendly outcome of the 1 st round in the French presidential elections. Led by the ATX which could add 3,9% in the week to just below 3000 points which is its highest since mid Followed by the French CAC40 that could add 3,8% in the week to cross its 2Q15-high to target pre-crisis levels. European stock market indices rose across the board but also their U.S. peers rose close to record highs. The Dow is knocking on points as is the S&P on 2400 points, and NASDAQ is already at a fresh all-time high of 5571 points. EUR/USD has a pretty volatile week Friday April 21 closing price was 1,0728 in Europe, and Monday April 24 opening price 1,0859 after the French elections. Other event risk in the week was Thursday s ECB monetary policy meeting that left interest rates and quantitative easing measures unchanged. In his speech and the following Q&A ECB Governor Draghi said that economic recovery is broad, while inflation fails to convince. He said that underlying inflation pressures remain subdued. Just a day after, Eurostat released its flash estimate for Euro area HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) to be 1,9% in April, up from 1,5% in March. So the ECB is expected to revise its rhetoric in June. BIST100 renews record highs despite rate hike This week the Central Bank of Turkey hiked it s late liquidity lending rate (the current de-facto policy rate) by 50bps to 12,25% on rising inflation pressures. But the Borsa Istanbul was unimpressed and rose to fresh record highs points are the new record.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,0918 1,77 0,78 2,10 WTI crude 49,56-0,12 1,35-9,35 EUR/TRY 3,8748-0,78-2,03-4,24 BRENT crude 51,81-0,19 0,86-7,98 EUR/CHF 1,0834 1,34 1,25 1,76 GAS oil 461,00-1,55-0,27-7,19 EUR/GBP 0, ,85-2,65-1,39 Heating oil 151,87-2,21-0,07-7,91 EUR/JPY 121,84 4,24 1,69 0,35 Natural gas 3,26 1,97 0,12-5,49 EUR/RUB 62,0518 2,28 0,50-3,04 Gold Spot 1.266,37-1,50 0,85 5,67 EUR/CNY 7,5306 2,20 0,76 2,46 Silver Spot 17,33-3,41-4,79 1,18 USD/TRY 3,5479-2,54-2,80-6,22 Platinum Spot 950,74-2,32-0,78-3,92 USD/JPY 111,59 2,35 0,90-1,72 Palladium Spot 824,92 3,75 3,85 11,48 USD/RUB 56,8352 0,30-0,28-5,04 Copper 260,05 1,92-3,36-3,88 USD/CNY 6,8954 0,14 0,23 0,17 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 04/28/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,27 6,95 9,84 Austria 102,10-0,52 0,49 0,52 BIST ,97 4,50 12,42 Belgium 103,28-0,08 0,45 0,63 CAC ,34 4,61 9,07 China 94,42-0,04-1,69 3,35 DAX ,26 2,40 5,30 EFSF 117,35-0,11-0,02-0,14 Dow Jones (T-1) ,96 1,35 4,42 ESM 113,66 na 0,28 0,02 Euro Stoxx ,65 2,91 7,95 France 94,96 0,60 1,54 0,80 FTSE ,25-1,91 0,26 Germany 97,53-0,90 0,38 0,27 HANG SENG ,38 1,11 5,37 Greece 83,00 2,40 6,16 6,19 IBEX ,41 3,29 12,91 Japan 101,02-0,02 0,38-0,01 MICEX ,87-0,62-10,86 Portugal 97,24 1,65 4,17 3,21 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,35 3,03 7,80 Spain 97,91 0,24 0,22 1,53 NIKKEI ,09-0,03-1,39 Russia 104,40 0,55 2,01 7,59 S&P 500 (T-1) ,40 1,28 4,10 Switzerland 113,16-0,90 0,11-0,21 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 102,50 1,36 3,33 10,89 Futures UK 104,05-0,60 0,74 1,04 Bobl 131,70-0,40 0,26 0,72 US 97,27-0,66 na 2,33 Bund 161,45-0,82 0,50 1,68 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,7104-1,69-2,38-5,21 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) ,77-14,93 37,12 WAC of CBRT (T-2) 11,5 2,26 3,62 14,31 VIX 10,38-29,12-10,06-1,98 Gold TRY / gram 144,43-3,99-1,96-2,63 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 212,876-7,86-10,27-19,97 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 11,34 1,70-0,70-0,26 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 979,66 1,86 0,96 6,96 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,362-1,12-1,40-3,13 USD Libor O/N (T-1) 0,929 0,00 0,48 34,70 Euribor 1 Month -0,374-0,81-0,27-0,54 USD Libor 1M 0,995 0,45 1,30 27,84 Euribor 3 Month -0,329 0,60 0,30-0,31 USD Libor 3M 1,172 1,39 1,75 12,83 Euribor 6 Month -0,249 0,00-2,89-2,47 USD Libor 6M 1,426 1,72 0,10 4,97 Euribor 12 Month -0,121 2,42-10,00-19,80 USD Libor 12M 1,774 1,69-1,34 2,90 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,424 0,00 0,27-3,31 TRY Libor O/N 12,435 3,45 4,27 15,05 EUR Libor 1M -0,401-0,36-0,90-4,35 TRY Libor 1M 12,299 2,15 2,15 14,00 EUR Libor 3M -0,363-0,20-1,40-5,18 TRY Libor 3M 12,335 0,73 1,99 12,18 EUR Libor 6M -0,260-0,27-4,00-7,88 TRY Libor 6M 12,549 2,03 2,90 11,31 EUR Libor 12M -0,143 0,98-20,41-50,61 TRY Libor 12M 12,758 0,91 1,55 7,66

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 04/26/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Apr % -1.8% 04/27/ :30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Mar -$65.2b -$64.8b -$64.8b 04/27/ :30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Mar P 0.2% -0.1% 0.4% 04/27/ :30 US Retail Inventories MoM Mar % 0.4% 04/27/ :30 US Durable Goods Orders Mar P 1.3% 0.7% 1.8% 04/27/ :30 US Durables Ex Transportation Mar P 0.4% -0.2% 0.5% 04/27/ :30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Mar P 0.5% 0.2% -0.1% 04/27/ :30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Mar P 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 04/27/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Apr k 257k 244k 04/27/ :30 US Continuing Claims Apr k 1988k 1979k 04/27/ :00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Mar -1.0% -0.8% 5.5% 04/27/ :00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Mar % -2.4% 04/28/ :30 US Employment Cost Index 1Q 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 04/28/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q A 1.0% 0.7% 2.1% 04/28/ :30 US Personal Consumption 1Q A 0.9% 0.3% 3.5% 04/28/ :30 US GDP Price Index 1Q A 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 04/28/ :30 US Core PCE QoQ 1Q A 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 04/24/ :00 EA Govt Debt/GDP Ratio % 90.4% 04/27/ :00 EA Economic Confidence Apr /27/ :45 EA ECB Main Refinancing Rate Apr % 0.000% 0.000% 04/27/ :45 EA ECB Marginal Lending Facility Apr % 0.250% 0.250% 04/27/ :45 EA ECB Deposit Facility Rate Apr % % % 04/27/ :45 EA ECB Asset Purchase Target Apr EU60b EU60b EU80b 04/28/ :00 EA M3 Money Supply YoY Mar 4.7% 5.3% 4.7% 04/28/ :00 EA CPI Estimate YoY Apr 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 04/28/ :00 EA CPI Core YoY Apr A 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 04/27/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Apr b 398.4b 04/28/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Apr t 8.96t 04/28/ :30 RU Key Rate Apr % 9.25% 9.75% 04/24/ :30 TU Capacity Utilization Apr 75.2% 78.4% 74.9% 04/26/ :00 TU Benchmark Repurchase Rate Apr % 8.00% 8.00% 04/26/ :00 TU Overnight Lending Rate Apr % 9.25% 9.25% 04/26/ :00 TU Overnight Borrowing Rate Apr % 7.25% 7.25% 04/26/ :00 TU Late Liquidity Lending Rate Apr % 12.25% 11.75% 04/27/ :00 TU Economic Confidence Apr /27/ :30 TU Foreigners Net Bond Invest Apr $41m $80m 04/27/ :30 TU Foreigners Net Stock Invest Apr $111m $173m 04/28/ :00 TU Trade Balance Mar -4.50b -4.49b -3.69b 04/28/ :00 TU Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY Mar % -6.5%

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.