FX & Markets Weekly. Week 13/2018. Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 13/2018 Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Senior Economist Vienna, Austria

2 Lira erases losses as Turkey GDP beats estimates The lira reversed earlier losses that followed the Moody s downgrade, and appreciated the most against the euro and the dollar this week, as Turkey real GDP growth has beaten Analyst s forecasts. 4Q17 real GDP growth came in at 7,3% y/y, against 6,7% consensus estimates. The annual real GDP growth reached 7,4% in 2017, up from 3,2% in Growth was driven by household consumption (+6,1% y/y in 2017) which accounted for 59,31% of GDP. Largest contribution to gross value added came from the services sector (+10,7% y/y), followed by the industry sector (+9,2% y/y), construction (+8,9%), and finally the agricultural sector (+4,7%). It was a very good economic performance at a very difficult time, thanks to strong measures by the government. The credit guarantee fund avoided an economic slowdown after the military coup. Dollar gains on U.S. GDP Also U.S. 4Q17 real GDP growth has beaten consensus estimates, reaching 2,9% annualized (2,7% cons. est.), up from 2,5% in the previous estimate by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. corporate profits declined in 4Q17 due to a drop in earnings from abroad. But that might be because of expected improved tax rates in 1Q18. EUR/USD touched 1,2476 on Tuesday intraday but is currently around 1,2327. Chart-technically, 1,2347 (50-day simple moving average) will be determining the short term direction. U.S. 10 year yield declines on safe heaven demand Having touched 2,9346 on March 21, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields declined to 2,7371 on Friday, their lowest since February. With the stock market volatility increasing, investors fled into safe heaven assets. Nikkei 225 outperforms Nikkei 225 index of companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange rose by over 4% this week, hereby beating all other major stock market indices globally. Led by Tokuyama (+12,8%), Shiseido (+11,2%), and Marui (10,41%), 218 companies gained week over week, and only 7 companies lagged.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,2328-0,20 0,97 2,73 WTI crude 64,91 1,00 5,65 7,75 EUR/TRY 4,8756-0,85 5,07 6,95 BRENT crude 69,34 1,40 7,57 5,41 EUR/CHF 1,1747 0,40 1,90 0,37 GAS oil 618,00 1,77 6,87 4,79 EUR/GBP 0,8772 0,36-0,93-1,12 Heating oil 202,56 1,30 6,09 1,40 EUR/JPY 130,88 1,16 0,45-3,17 Natural gas 2,73 2,90 1,37-0,29 EUR/RUB 70,8078 0,10 3,12 2,38 Gold Spot 1 325,48-1,62 0,47 1,74 EUR/CNY 7,7354-0,83 0,17-0,94 Silver Spot 16,37-1,20-0,62-3,36 USD/TRY 3,9526-0,82 4,02 4,01 Platinum Spot 932,06-1,77-5,43 0,41 USD/JPY 106,17 1,38-0,51-5,76 Palladium Spot 953,44-2,35-8,78-10,35 USD/RUB 57,4381 0,21 2,11-0,46 Copper 302,30 0,18-3,42-8,73 USD/CNY 6,2755-0,64-0,88-3,55 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices 03/29/ days 1 Month 3 Months Bonds 10Y 03/30/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,27-1,37 0,25 Austria 101,94 0,17 1,26 0,51 BIST 100 (T+1) ,08-3,03 0,01 Belgium 103,98 0,32 1,29 0,50 CAC ,00-2,88-2,73 China 100,98-0,25 0,73 3,71 DAX ,03-2,73-6,35 EFSF 113,98-0,00 0,05-0,14 Dow Jones ,61-3,70-2,49 ESM 111,16 0,17 0,48 0,12 Euro Stoxx ,40-2,25-4,07 France 97,76 0,43 1,69 0,51 FTSE ,50-2,42-8,21 Germany 97,39 0,32 1,44 0,31 HANG SENG ,15-2,44 0,58 Greece 97,12 0,61 0,79 4,15 IBEX ,19-2,44-4,42 Japan 100,92-0,22 0,10-0,01 MOEX (T-6) ,00-0,49 8,33 Portugal 112,39 1,10 2,73 1,27 NASDAQ ,51-3,99 2,89 Spain 103,05 1,05 2,84 0,92 NIKKEI 225 (T+1) ,06-2,78-5,76 Russia 108,66-0,20-0,13 6,92 S&P ,11-2,69-1,22 Switzerland 111,58 0,13 0,26-0,19 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 101,50 1,05 na 12,14 Futures UK 101,73 0,69 0,95 1,28 Bobl 131,25 0,18 0,78 0,24 US 94,38 0,65 1,07 2,74 Bund 159,43 0,30 1,70 0,30 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 4,4134-0,57 4,59 5,74 Baltic Dry Index ,55-11,49-22,77 WAC of CBRT (T-1) 12,75 0,00 0,00 0,00 VIX 19,97-14,44 0,60 80,89 Gold TRY / gram 168,44-2,42 4,51 5,82 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 196,236-1,32 16,90 26,67 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 14,03-0,57 7,67 4,70 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 1 169,27-0,24-2,17 0,93 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T-1) -0,348 5,44 0,86-0,58 USD Libor O/N 1,697-0,04 17,63 18,77 Euribor 1 Month -0,372-0,27-0,54-1,09 USD Libor 1M 1,883 0,62 12,76 20,39 Euribor 3 Month -0,328 0,30-0,31 0,30 USD Libor 3M 2,312 1,15 14,60 36,44 Euribor 6 Month -0,271 0,00-0,37 0,00 USD Libor 6M 2,452 0,21 10,28 33,50 Euribor 12 Month -0,190 0,52 0,52-2,15 USD Libor 12M 2,663-0,54 6,41 26,37 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,435 0,98 1,14 1,30 TRY Libor O/N 13,339 0,12 0,12-0,34 EUR Libor 1M -0,407 0,70-1,17 1,11 TRY Libor 1M 13,648 0,00 0,00-5,16 EUR Libor 3M -0,371 4,07 2,26 3,64 TRY Libor 3M 13,982 0,13 0,17-6,54 EUR Libor 6M -0,325 1,51 0,87-0,35 TRY Libor 6M 14,454 0,00 0,18-4,72 EUR Libor 12M -0,246 2,28 3,70-0,70 TRY Libor 12M 15,068 0,51 0,74-1,41

4 Date Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 03/26/ :30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Feb /27/ :00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar /28/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar % -1.1% 03/28/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q T 2.7% 2.9% 2.5% 03/28/ :30 US Personal Consumption 4Q T 3.8% 4.0% 3.8% 03/28/ :30 US GDP Price Index 4Q T 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 03/28/ :30 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q T 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 03/28/ :30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Feb -$74.4b -$75.4b -$74.4b 03/28/ :30 US Retail Inventories MoM Feb % 0.8% 03/28/ :30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Feb P 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 03/28/ :00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Feb 2.0% 3.1% -4.7% 03/28/ :00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Feb % -1.7% 03/29/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar k 215k 229k 03/29/ :30 US Continuing Claims Mar k 1871k 1828k 03/29/ :30 US Personal Income Feb 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 03/29/ :30 US Personal Spending Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 03/29/ :30 US Real Personal Spending Feb 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% 03/29/ :30 US PCE Deflator MoM Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 03/29/ :30 US PCE Deflator YoY Feb 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 03/29/ :30 US PCE Core MoM Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 03/29/ :30 US PCE Core YoY Feb 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 03/29/ :45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar /27/ :00 EA M3 Money Supply YoY Feb 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 03/27/ :00 EA Economic Confidence Mar /27/ :00 EA Business Climate Indicator Mar /27/ :00 EA Industrial Confidence Mar /27/ :00 EA Services Confidence Mar /27/ :00 EA Consumer Confidence Mar F /27/ :00 TR Economic Confidence Mar /29/ :00 TR GDP YoY 4Q 6.7% 7.3% 11.1% 03/29/ :00 TR GDP SA/WDA QoQ 4Q 1.2% 1.8% 1.2% 03/29/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Bond Invest Mar $234m $135m 03/29/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Stock Invest Mar $26m $106m 03/30/ :00 TR Trade Balance Feb -5.70b -5.76b -9.07b 03/30/ :00 TR Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY Feb % 38.5% 03/28/ :00 RU CPI WoW Mar % 0.1% 03/28/ :00 RU CPI Weekly YTD Mar % 0.7% 03/29/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Mar b 455.4b 03/30/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Mar t 9.68t

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the reproduction of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Timur Kozintsev, Ruslan Abil, Alexander Vedyakhin, Pavel Barchugov, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.