FX & Markets Weekly. Week 48/2016. Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Economic Research Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 FX & Markets Weekly Week 48/2016 Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN Economic Research Vienna, Austria

2 ATX index unimpressed by repeat election The local stock market index ATX continued to rise in a week that could result in a game changer. The index has continuously risen since bottoming out in June. This Sunday will hopefully get a new president elected in Austria. The last attempt had been denied by the glue on envelopes of postal voters. Far right against green party candidates take the race. At a time when anti-establishment, and anti-eu parties are on the rise in Europe. It could be a game changer should Hofer win. Because he would give the far right freedom party the assignment to the formation of a government after the next general elections that could also be earlier than currently scheduled September Venezuela stock market outperforms any other The Caracas stock market index climbed by over 32% this week and extended its 1-month gains to incredible 138%, 3-month gains were even 206%. The devaluation in March took the VEF around 57% lower against the EUR and USD. Foreigners are in fact bullish on Venezuela stocks. Siderurgica Venezolana "Sivensa" S.A.C.A., the steel producer outperformed all other stocks and could add 530% in 6 months. TRY dives to record lows Even though the Central Bank of Turkey has revised its stance and hiked the 1-week repo rate by 50bps to 8,0%, and hiked the O/N lending rate by 25bps to 8,5%, the depreciation of the TRY could not be stopped. TRY was the worst performer among Emerging Markets currencies in the past 6 months, depreciating over 13% against the EUR. Both EUR and USD reached new alltime highs against the TRY. Crude surges on OPEC output curb Under the leadership of Saudi-Arabia the largest crude oil producer within the OPEC group the oil cartel has finally reached its first production cut in eight years in order to boost the price of oil in their meeting in Vienna this Wednesday. The price of crude oil has fallen by almost half since 2014 and has since been under pressure due to global oversupplies. The meeting Vienna ratified the agreement of Algiers, to curb output from a current level of around 33,6 million barrels a day to somewhere between 32,5 million and 33mn. Russia, non-opec crude oil producer, has also declared to cut the output for 2017 by up to barrels per day. Saudi Arabia will be accounting for nearly barrels per day by reducing output to 10,06 mb/d. Overall, the OPEC countries reached a deal to curb their oil production by 1,2 million barrels per day in order to raise global prices. The price of Brent crude jumped 10% to $51,94 a barrel, and WTI rose 9,0% to $49,53.

3 Exchange Commodities Rates Energy Futures EUR/USD 1,0652 0,51-4,12-4,60 WTI crude 50,81 10,20 10,52 9,78 EUR/TRY 3,7593 2,87 8,38 14,11 BRENT crude 53,59 10,92 12,20 11,48 EUR/CHF 1,0750 0,05-0,44-1,72 GAS oil 472,00 8,08 10,49 11,07 EUR/GBP 0, ,83-6,66 0,39 Heating oil 163,57 9,93 9,98 11,85 EUR/JPY 121,25 1,15 5,66 4,52 Natural gas 3,47 8,12 16,25 7,32 EUR/RUB 68,1846-0,89-3,75-6,29 Gold Spot 1.173,71-0,98-10,21-11,57 EUR/CNY 7,3375-0,05-2,31-1,59 Silver Spot 16,49-0,41-11,68-15,34 USD/TRY 3,5285 2,25 13,04 19,58 Platinum Spot 925,50 1,64-7,45-13,23 USD/JPY 113,83 0,58 10,21 9,58 Palladium Spot 742,95-0,30 17,67 9,25 USD/RUB 64,0204-1,24 0,38-1,73 Copper 260,45-3,00 16,01 24,60 USD/CNY 6,8877-0,45 1,93 3,10 Stock Price as of Change% Change % Change % Sovereign Price as of Change % Change % Ask Indices Bonds 10Y 12/02/ days 1 Month YTM ATX ,46 3,01 5,61 Austria 101,84-0,19-2,33 0,55 BIST ,19-5,75-5,40 Belgium 103,07-0,07-2,66 0,67 CAC ,96 2,08-0,79 China 97,87-0,76-1,27 2,95 DAX ,30 0,79-2,16 EFSF 119,34-0,23-0,92-0,23 Dow Jones (T-1) ,57 6,86 3,79 ESM 114,06-0,41-1,60 0,08 Euro Stoxx ,66 0,59-2,66 France 95,00 0,09-3,18 0,77 FTSE ,09-2,16-2,86 Germany 96,92-0,87-1,90 0,33 HANG SENG ,70-1,08-3,02 Greece 81,46 3,60 11,41 6,35 IBEX ,77-3,00-3,38 Japan 100,76 0,14-0,89 0,01 MICEX ,51 8,18 6,29 Portugal 93,49-0,87-3,71 3,67 NASDAQ 100 (T-1) ,47 0,15-1,35 Spain 97,62 0,11-3,24 1,56 NIKKEI ,24 7,54 8,86 Russia 97,05 0,58-0,83 8,75 S&P 500 (T-1) ,62 4,44 0,51 Switzerland 113,34-0,55-2,37-0,17 Interest Rate Price as of Change% Change % Change % Turkey 97,35-0,41-6,12 10,89 Futures UK 100,63-0,15-2,36 1,43 Bobl 131,15-0,18-0,04-0,30 US 96,38-0,48 na 2,41 Bund 160,11-0,69-1,43-2,45 Turkey Risk related Sentiment TRY Basket 3,6431 2,71 10,63 16,61 Baltic Dry Index (T-1) ,42 43,41 66,11 WAC of CBRT (T-1) 8,27 4,03 6,03 4,82 VIX 14,33 15,72-26,09 19,20 Gold TRY / gram 133,13 1,26 1,51 5,76 Turkey 5Y CDS (T -1) 306,004 2,34 15,52 24,69 TR Gov. B. 2Y yield 10,93 0,37 18,29 20,37 MSCI EM Index (T-1) 858,41 0,31-3,57-4,58 Euribor/Eonia USD Libor Eonia (T -1) -0,344 2,27 1,15-1,78 USD Libor O/N (T-1) 0,435 0,00-0,58 3,41 Euribor 1 Month -0,371 0,54 0,54 0,54 USD Libor 1M 0,647 6,73 21,55 23,01 Euribor 3 Month -0,313 0,32 0,00-3,99 USD Libor 3M 0,946 0,97 8,08 13,33 Euribor 6 Month -0,218 0,46-2,35-12,95 USD Libor 6M 1,292 0,13 3,47 3,57 Euribor 12 Month -0,076 3,80-7,04-46,15 USD Libor 12M 1,645-0,03 5,08 5,46 EUR Libor TRY Libor EUR Libor O/N -0,410 0,00-0,70-2,50 TRY Libor O/N 8,609 0,00 4,75 0,88 EUR Libor 1M -0,386-1,43-1,61-3,32 TRY Libor 1M 9,225 2,27 6,55 5,55 EUR Libor 3M -0,334-0,86-3,09-2,37 TRY Libor 3M 9,859 1,29 9,46 7,87 EUR Libor 6M -0,224-1,95-4,32-9,48 TRY Libor 6M 10,544 0,86 13,08 11,67 EUR Libor 12M -0,084-5,38-11,36-11,36 TRY Libor 12M 11,014 2,75 14,33 14,94

4 Date Time Country Economic Release Period Consensus Actual Prior 11/28/ :30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov /29/ :30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 3.0% 3.2% 2.9% 11/29/ :30 US Personal Consumption 3Q S 2.3% 2.8% 2.1% 11/29/ :00 US Consumer Confidence Index Nov /30/ :00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Nov % 5.5% 11/30/ :15 US ADP Employment Change Nov 170k 216k 147k 11/30/ :30 US Personal Income Oct 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 11/30/ :30 US Personal Spending Oct 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 11/30/ :45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov /01/ :30 US Initial Jobless Claims Nov k 268k 251k 12/01/ :30 US Continuing Claims Nov k 2081k 2043k 12/01/ :45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F /01/ :00 US ISM Manufacturing Nov /01/ :00 US ISM New Orders Nov /02/ :30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 180k 178k 161k 12/02/ :30 US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Nov -- -2k -- 12/02/ :30 US Change in Private Payrolls Nov 175k 156k 142k 12/02/ :30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls Nov -2k -4k -9k 12/02/ :30 US Unemployment Rate Nov 4.9% 4.6% 4.9% 12/02/ :30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Nov % 62.8% 11/28/ :00 EA M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 5.0% 4.4% 5.0% 11/29/ :00 EA Economic Confidence Nov /29/ :00 EA Business Climate Indicator Nov /29/ :00 EA Industrial Confidence Nov /29/ :00 EA Services Confidence Nov /29/ :00 EA Consumer Confidence Nov F /30/ :00 EA CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 11/30/ :00 EA CPI Core YoY Nov A 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 12/01/ :00 EA Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F /01/ :00 EA Unemployment Rate Oct 10.0% 9.8% 10.0% 12/02/ :00 EA PPI MoM Oct 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 12/02/ :00 EA PPI YoY Oct -1.0% -0.4% -1.5% 11/28/ :00 TR Economic Confidence Nov /28/ :30 TR House Price Index YoY Sep % 14.10% 11/28/ :30 TR House Price Index MoM Sep % 0.98% 11/29/ :00 TR Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY Oct % -32.8% 11/30/ :00 TR Trade Balance Oct -4.10b -4.16b -4.36b 12/01/ :00 TR Markit/ISO Turkey PMI Mfg Nov /01/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Stock Invest Nov $11m -$201m 12/01/ :30 TR Foreigners Net Bond Invest Nov $969m -$372m 12/01/ :00 RU Markit Russia PMI Mfg Nov /01/ :00 RU Gold and Forex Reserve Nov b 389.4b 12/02/ :00 RU Money Supply Narrow Def Nov t 8.66t 12/02/ :30 RU Reserve Fund Nov -- $31.3b $31.7b 12/02/ :30 RU Wellbeing Fund Nov -- $71.3b $72.2b

5 Should you have any queries, please contact me as follows: Mag. Ahmet Hüsrev BILGIN, Economic Research Tel: / Disclaimer: This publication was prepared by DenizBank AG exclusively for marketing purposes pursuant to section 36 (2) WAG The information contained in this report is based on the knowledge of the various authors at the time the various texts were finalised for publication. DenizBank AG reserves the right to amendments or additions in this regard at any time without prior notice. The contents of this newsletter are protected by intellectual property rights especially copyright. The use of texts, parts of texts or image material or the re-production of information or data requires the prior written consent of DenizBank AG. We have carefully checked the information in this report and have prepared it to our best knowledge and judgement. However, DenizBank AG does not assume any liability whatsoever for the accuracy, completeness or up-to-datedness of the information contained in this report and/or for the realisation of the forecasts made therein. This applies likewise for all other websites accessed via links contained within this report. The main source was the following: Bloomberg Finance LP. Every investment decision must be made in accordance with the personal circumstances of the investor. This report is intended for customers who are able to make their investment decisions independently and who do not solely rely on information provided by DenizBank AG. This report is non-binding and does not constitute an offer to purchase the products named nor is it an investment recommendation or financial analysis pursuant to section 36 (1) WAG Website credits and disclosures made in accordance with Sections 24 and 25 Media Act: Media content owner: DenizBank AG (FN t, Commercial Court of Vienna), Thomas-Klestil-Platz 1, 1030 Vienna; Registered address of the company: Vienna; DPR number: Object of the company: Banking; Members of the Management Board: Ahmet Mesut Ersoy, Mehmet Ulvi Taner, Dr. Thomas Roznovsky, Tuncay Akdevelioglu, Cenk Izgi; Members of the Supervisory Board: Hakan Ates, Derya Kumru, Wouter van Roste, Alexander Vedyakhin, Suavi Demircioglu, Dr. Kurt Heindl; Shareholder structure: Member of the Sberbank Group Purpose of document: This report summarises the significant developments within the financial markets over the previous week and comments on their underlying background.