Last Change Range % 5D 52 Wk Range EURUSD % % USDJPY % %

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1 European Mid-Session European Mid-Session News - European equity markets continued to trade higher on Thursday helped by a global rally sparked after fed Chair Yellen s dovish testimony yesterday. - Fed Chair Yellen was quoted saying that rate won t need to rise all that much further given the balance of jobs growth and inflation. - Sweden June CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.0% exp.; y/y 1.7% vs. 1.6% exp. SEK traded vs EUR with EURSEK breaking below 9.60 to reach session lows at Economic Data of the day (GMT) - US June Final Demand PPI (1230) - US Initial Jobless claims (1230) - CA Canada May New Housing Price Index (1230) - US June Monthly Budget Statement (1800) Foreign Exchange Last Change Range % 5D 52 Wk Range EURUSD % % USDJPY % % GBPUSD % % AUDUSD % % NZDUSD % % EURCHF % % USDTRY % % USDCAD % % USDCNH % % EURHUF % % Source: Bloomberg (For indicative purposes only) US-10 year yields dropping on the day, while French and German CPI numbers for June came out as expected. EURUSD has second day of retreat so far, and constitutes the first tech support of interest which is 38% Fibo level from the rally starting 20 th June. Data from US on CPI tomorrow is now the focus following the cautious language on inflation from Yellen. EURUSD still in the bullish territory but the needs to hold to avoid opening down to the level.

2 The drop in US yields not really helping USDJPY either and USDJPY is today retracing below the upward channel created from mid of last month. Next important tech support being the area which is 38% Fibo level. We need to reclaim 113 area on close or else we could risk the third day of lower closes, which this year, at least, has meant several days drop in USDJPY. Again eyes will be on tomorrows CPI for trigger EURGBP attempt higher above lasted only one day, following UKs better Weekly Earning Exbonus yesterday. EURGBP now are around 21 day moving average which has been decent tech support since early May. Currently 21 day moving average at area. For EUR bulls this could be interesting area to watch for new positions. GBP in general bid today. Vols ON ATM 1W ATM 1M ATM 3M ATM 1Y ATM Last Value Δ Value Δ Value Δ Value Δ Value Δ EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDCNH XAUUSD XAGUSD Source: Saxobank (For indicative purposes only) Bank of Canada delivered the 25bp hike as expected but followed up with a hawkish press conference. USDCAD dropped 1.8% before it retraced higher, the market had priced in a move of around 0.80%. Vol was offered ahead of the announcement and was initially sold off as usual just after the announcement before it started to rise again as the move was larger than expected. 1 month now trades at the YTD average at 6.65 (YTD low 5.4/ high 8.0). EURUSD vols traded higher yesterday as spot traded up to new highs. Market still short topside we could see another round of buying of EUR calls which took front end risk reversal a spread higher. Both vols and risk reversals then turned offered as spot went back down to at the end of the day. GBP vols have traded sideways over the last week. We have seen net buyers of EURGBP options and net sellers of GBPUSD options, where topside EURGBP been in demand but not enough to push risk reversals higher. AUD vols have been trading softer over the last weeks while NZD vols have been trading sideways with occasional buying of options over next RBNZ on 10 Aug. Bonds

3 Last Change Range % 5D 52 Wk Range Government debt US 10y yield 2.31% -0.01% 2.3% % -0.06% 1.45% % Germany 10y yield 0.55% -0.03% 0.55% % -0.01% -0.16% % Euro-BUNDS future Euro-BOBL future Euro-SCHATZ future Euro-OAT future Euro-BTP future Credit ITRAXX Main (EUR IG) ITRAXX XOVER (EUR HY) Source: Bloomberg (For indicative purposes only) Commodities Last Change Range Comments Precious Metals Gold % Silver % Platinum % Metals Copper % Iron Ore % Oil Brent % WTI % Agriculture A stronger yen and weaker bond yields resulted from yesterday s testimony by Fed chief Janet Yellen to Congress. The focus returned to moderate growth and inflation, which gave gold and silver a boost. Bears are reconsidering their position, especially after gold failed to extend the downside following the break below $1,215/oz last week. A break above $1,230/oz in gold and/or $16.20/oz in silver would now likely attract short-covering and return both markets to neutral. Higher lows point to a renewed upside attempt above $2.70/lb. Support coming from strong Chinese trade data for June, the world s biggest miner seeing a deficit. Three weeks of improved US stock data have increasingly been offset by price- negative news from Opec. The International Energy Agency s new monthly energy report today highlighted this by saying that rising production from Libya and Nigeria combined with the lowest compliance in six months were slowing the rebalancing process. US inventories dropped again last week, but that was offset by a resumption in production growth after five weeks of no change. For the now the markets seem content with fading rallies ahead of $47/barrel on WTI and $50/b on Brent. Corn % Yesterday s monthly WASDE report triggered selling across the major crops after data on Wheat % production, yields and stocks generally beat

4 Coffee NY % market expectations. Sugar % Source: Bloomberg & Saxobank (For indicative purposes only) Equities Last Change Range % 5D 52 Wk Range Dax % % Eurostoxx % % Footsie % % Nikkei % % Shcomp % % S&P % % Dow % % Nasdaq % % Athens % % Vix % % Source: Bloomberg(For indicative purposes only) European equity markets continued to trade higher on Thursday helped by a global rally sparked after fed Chair Yellen s dovish testimony yesterday. Shares of Daimler AG dropped at open in Frankfurt after the report probe into diesel-engine emissions controls by German prosecutors is set to involve 1 million vehicles. In another news, the German retailer Metro goes through demerger today splitting up the company into two independent divisions Metro Wholesale & Food and Ceconomy that will deal in consumer electronics. The market cap of the combined entities rose 7% today since open. Yours sincerely, Sales Trading, Copenhagen & London SAXO BANK A/S Philip Heymans Allé 15 DK 2900 Hellerup Denmark Copenhagen: London: Singapore: Follow us on Twitter or None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This material is produced for marketing and/or informational purposes only and Saxo Bank A/S and its owners, subsidiaries and affiliates whether acting directly or through branch offices ( Saxo Bank Group ) make no representation or warranty, and assume no liability, for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided herein. In providing this material Saxo Group has not taken into account any particular recipient s investment objectives, special investment goals, financial situation, and specific needs and demands and nothing herein is intended as a recommendation for any recipient to invest or divest in a particular manner and Saxo Bank Group assumes no liability

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