Market Outlook March 2016

Transcription

1 Highlight Treasury Division TMU 01 :(66) TMU 02 :(66) TMU 03 :(66) Market Outlook March 2016 Last Week: The news of deterioration in China's trade balance had stoked safe-haven demand like the yen as investors shed holdings of stocks and other risky investments on renewed concerns about a slowing global economy. China's exports slumped by 25.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the steepest drop since May 2009, while imports dropped by 13.8 percent for a 16th consecutive month. On Wednesday (9/3), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised the market with an interest rate cut by 25 basis points to 2.25%.On Thursday (10/3), the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.4 percent and raised monthly asset purchases to 80 billion euros from 60 billion euros. This Week: This week, there are several central bank meetings. The bank of Japan policy meeting on Mon-Tues (14-15/3), the FOMC meeting (15-16/3) where investors expect to the fed signaling will be held rate hike more than once this year. The bank of England (BOE) will meet on Thursday (17/3). USD The dollar index opened on Monday (7/3) at , a little changed from the previous Friday s closing (4/3) at The US stocks and treasuries have struggled for a clear direction after the release of generally mixed US economic data. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Tuesday (8/3) that the U.S. small business confidence declined further to 92.9 in February, a decrease of 1.3% from January as lingering concerns about sales growth and profits hurt capital spending and hiring plans. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday (9/3) that wholesale stocks increased by 0.3% in January after remained unchanged in December while the sales declined 1.3%, extending December's 0.6% drop. Nevertheless, Initial jobless claims were at 259k, down sharply from previous week s data of 277k, reaching the lowest level since October 17. This data suggests that the labor market remain strong in March. Key event for global market was taken on Thursday (10/3) where European Central Bank (ECB) decided to announce further stimulus programs, and ECB s Chairman, Mario Draghi, hinted no more rate cuts to come. The ECB s action sent the Euro and all the risk assets to move higher against the U.S. dollar. The dollar index moved to almost the lowest level during last week on Thursday (10/3) at Last week, the dollar index moved in range of and closed on Friday (11/3) at

2 Graph: Dollar Index (DXY) Source: Reuters Comments: This week, we believe that the dollar index will continue to fall as the markets expect the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged during March meeting. We forecast the dollar index to move between EUR & GBP The euro and the sterling had moved in a limited cause in the past week before the ECB meeting on Thursday (10/3). Both currencies dropped after the ECB announced some rate cut; refinancing rate dropped to 0% from 0.05%, deposit rate dropped by 0.1% to -0.40% and lending rate dropped to 0.25% from 0.50%. ECB also added the asset purchases from 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros. However, the currencies gain dramatically on ECB s president, Mario Dragi comment that there should be no further policies announced by the ECB. Nonetheless, the euro moved between USD/EUR whereas the pound moved between USD/GBP

3 Graph : EUR and GBP Daily QEUR= Cndl, QEUR=, Bid 14/03/2016, , , , , , (+0.08%) SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14 14/03/2016, /03/ /03/2016 (GMT) Price USD March Daily QGBP= Cndl, QGBP=, Bid 14/03/2016, , , , , , (-0.04%) SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 14 14/03/2016, /03/ /03/2016 (GMT) Price USD March Source: Reuters Comment : After both currencies had gained dramatically in the past week, we expect to see a drop in value from investors short position. The expected range is USD/EUR and USD/GBP

4 AUD & NZD It was a solid week for the Aussie dollars after bright economic data and appreciated in commodities. The AUD started the week on Monday (07/03) at /22 USD/AUD depreciated from closed level on Friday (04/03) at /43 USD/AUD. Initially, the Aussie marginally rose due to a better than expected retail sales data, rose to 0.3% in February from 0.0% in the preceding month. With a strong rally in oil price, the AUD showed appreciated momentum but slightly dropped at the end of the week due to downbeat Australian consumer sentiment data. However, the AUS still kept a bullish trend throughout the week and rally in a range between USD/AUD before closed on Friday (11/03) at /72 USD/AUD. Meanwhile the NZD was marginally depreciated from a surprising announcement from New Zealand central to cut their policy rate by 0.25%. The NZD was opened on Monday (07/03) at /11 USD/NZD slightly weaken from previous closed level (04/03) at /15 USD/NZD. The NZD confronted a major bearish trend after RBNZ cut their interest rates for the fifth time in less than a year to 2.25% because of the worsening outlook for global growth, and also the bank held open door for a further cut. The Kiwi slightly gain some momentum at the end of the week before closing on Friday (11/3) at /53 USD/NZD. The NZD was varied in a range of USD/NZD. Graph: AUD and NZD Daily QAUD= Cndl, QAUD=, Bid 14/03/2016, , , , , , (-0.42%) SMA, QAUD=, Bid(Last), 14 14/03/2016, /03/ /03/2016 (GMT) Price USD March

5 Daily QNZD= Cndl, QNZD=, Bid 14/03/2016, , , , , , (-0.52%) SMA, QNZD=, Bid(Last), 14 14/03/2016, /03/ /03/2016 (GMT) Price USD March Source: Reuters Comments: The AUD could enjoy another amazing week from a rising oil price that could support a short strong AUD momentum. On the other hand, the NZD might be in an weaker zone affected from recent rate cut. The major highlight of the week will be on 15-16th March when the FOMC meeting was scheduled. The outcome of the meeting could directly affect the movement of both currencies. We expected the AUD and NZD will vary between USD/AUD and USD/NZD. JPY The Japanese Yen finished last week lower against the majorities of G10 FX as traders reacted to the ECB s plan and anticipate of with the BOJ and the Fed this week. After the European Central Bank cuts three reference rates and expanded their quantitative easing programs, the euro strengthened the most in The markets have been understandably trained on what the BOJ will do next. Last week, the Japanese economy saw a beat of 0.1% in GDP coming in at -0.3% vs. expectations of -0.4%. The strain on growth continues to be the reluctance of personal consumption. In addition to a relatively good GDP number, the consumer confidence balanced out the week by falling 2.4 points from 42.5 to For now, the Tuesday BOJ s announcement is expected to keep the reference rate at 0.1% where they set the policy rates to negative for the first time on January

6 Graph: JPY Daily QJPY= Cndl, QJPY=, Bid 14/03/2016, , , , , +0.02, (+0.02%) 04/03/ /03/2016 (GMT) Price /USD March Source: Reuters Comments: Investors still concern over Bank of Japan policy signals from the upcoming meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and macro risk factors cast a long shadow. We expected the THB will move in a range of JPY/USD. THB Last week, the THB opened at 35.35/37 THB/USD, held steady from the closing level on Friday (4/3) at 35.33/35 THB/USD. The baht continued appreciated along the week with high correlation to other currencies in region as risk appetites. The market priced that the Fed tend to postpone the rate hiking from at this coming meeting (15/3-16/3) but there is still a chance of a hike in July. Furthermore, the baht also had a great support from capital inflow as the result from ECB meeting, the central bank injected more money to the market and cut down the interest rates on Thursday (10/3) to stimulate the economy. Graph: THB Daily QTHB= Cndl, QTHB=, Bid 14/03/2016, 35.00, 35.08, 34.97, 35.06, +0.03, (+0.09%) 04/03/ /03/2016 (GMT) Price /USD March Source: Reuters

7 Comments: The main dish for this week is the FOMC meeting during March. The market is waiting for rate hike signal and the global market outlook from the Fed President, Jenet Yellen. The THB tend to edge higher from the capital inflows. We expect the THB to move in a range of THB/USD. FX Forecast Economic Calendar Last Week Currency Support Resistance USD/THB USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 7-Mar-16 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Feb Mar-16 JN Official Reserve Assets Feb -- $1254.1b $1248.1b 7-Mar-16 AU ANZ Job Advertisements MoM Feb % 1.00% 7-Mar-16 JN Leading Index CI Jan P Mar-16 JN Coincident Index Jan P Mar-16 AU Foreign Reserves Feb -- A$61.2b A$61.6b 7-Mar-16 GE Factory Orders MoM Jan -0.30% -0.10% -0.70% 7-Mar-16 GE Factory Orders WDA YoY Jan 0.00% 1.10% -2.70% 7-Mar-16 CH Foreign Reserves Feb $3190.0b $3202.3b $3230.9b 7-Mar-16 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Mar Mar-16 NZ Manpower Survey 2Q -- 10% 11% 7-Mar-16 AU Manpower Survey 2Q -- 6% 8% 7-Mar-16 US Labor Market Conditions Index Change Feb Mar-16 US Consumer Credit Jan $17.000b $10.538b $21.267b 8-Mar-16 NZ ANZ Truckometer Heavy MoM Feb % -4.30% 8-Mar-16 NZ Mfg Activity Volume QoQ 4Q % 3.50% 8-Mar-16 NZ Mfg Activity SA QoQ 4Q % 4.20% 8-Mar-16 JN GDP SA QoQ 4Q F -0.40% -0.30% -0.40% 8-Mar-16 JN GDP Annualized SA QoQ 4Q F -1.50% -1.10% -1.40% 8-Mar-16 JN GDP Nominal SA QoQ 4Q F -0.30% -0.20% -0.30% 8-Mar-16 JN GDP Deflator YoY 4Q F 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 8-Mar-16 JN GDP Private Consumption QoQ 4Q F -0.80% -0.90% -0.80% 8-Mar-16 JN GDP Business Spending QoQ 4Q F 1.20% 1.50% 1.40%

8 8-Mar-16 JN BoP Current Account Balance Jan  715.5b  520.8b  960.7b 8-Mar-16 JN BoP Current Account Adjusted Jan  b  b  b 8-Mar-16 JN Trade Balance BoP Basis Jan - 530.0b - 411.0b  188.7b 8-Mar-16 JN Bank Lending Incl Trusts YoY Feb % 2.30% 8-Mar-16 JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY Feb 2.40% 2.20% 2.40% 8-Mar-16 JN Manpower Survey 2Q Mar-16 CH Manpower Survey 2Q -- 5% 7% 8-Mar-16 UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY Feb 0.50% 0.10% 2.60% 8-Mar-16 AU NAB Business Conditions Feb Mar-16 AU NAB Business Confidence Feb Mar-16 CH Exports YoY CNY Feb % % -6.60% 8-Mar-16 CH Imports YoY CNY Feb % -8.00% % 8-Mar-16 CH Trade Balance CNY Feb b b b 8-Mar-16 CH Trade Balance Feb $51.00b $32.59b $63.29b 8-Mar-16 CH Exports YoY Feb % % % 8-Mar-16 CH Imports YoY Feb % % % 8-Mar-16 JN Bankruptcies YoY Feb % -6.38% 8-Mar-16 JN Consumer Confidence Index Feb Mar-16 JN Eco Watchers Survey Current Feb Mar-16 JN Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb Mar-16 GE Industrial Production SA MoM Jan 0.50% 3.30% -1.20% 8-Mar-16 GE Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan -1.60% 2.20% -2.20% 8-Mar-16 FR Trade Balance Jan -4100m -3712m -3943m 8-Mar-16 FR Budget Balance YTD Jan b -70.5b 8-Mar-16 FR Current Account Balance Jan b -0.7b 8-Mar-16 SP Industrial Output NSA YoY Jan % 2.90% 8-Mar-16 SP Industrial Output SA YoY Jan 3.70% 3.50% 3.70% 8-Mar-16 SP Industrial Production MoM Jan 0.20% -0.10% -0.20% 8-Mar-16 SP House transactions YoY Jan % 6.80% 8-Mar-16 EC GDP SA QoQ 4Q P 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 8-Mar-16 EC GDP SA YoY 4Q P 1.50% 1.60% 1.50% 8-Mar-16 EC Gross Fix Cap QoQ 4Q 0.60% 1.30% 0.00% 8-Mar-16 EC Govt Expend QoQ 4Q 0.40% 0.60% 0.60% 8-Mar-16 EC Household Cons QoQ 4Q 0.30% 0.20% 0.40% 8-Mar-16 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb Mar-16 NZ Card Spending Retail MoM Feb 0.30% 0.70% 0.30% 9-Mar-16 NZ Card Spending Total MoM Feb % 0.60% 9-Mar-16 AU Westpac Consumer Conf Index Mar Mar-16 AU Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM Mar % 4.20% 9-Mar-16 JN Money Stock M2 YoY Feb 3.20% 3.10% 3.20% 9-Mar-16 JN Money Stock M3 YoY Feb 2.60% 2.50% 2.50% 9-Mar-16 AU Home Loans MoM Jan -3.00% -3.90% 2.60% 9-Mar-16 AU Investment Lending Jan % 0.60%

9 9-Mar-16 AU Owner-Occupier Loan Value MoM Jan % 0.90% 9-Mar-16 JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Feb P % % Bank of France Bus. 9-Mar-16 FR Sentiment Feb Mar-16 SP INE House Price Index QoQ 4Q % 0.70% 9-Mar-16 SP INE House Price Index YoY 4Q % 4.50% 9-Mar-16 UK Industrial Production MoM Jan 0.40% 0.30% -1.10% 9-Mar-16 UK Industrial Production YoY Jan 0.00% 0.20% -0.40% 9-Mar-16 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Jan 0.20% 0.70% -0.20% 9-Mar-16 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Jan -0.70% -0.10% -1.70% 9-Mar-16 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar % -4.80% 9-Mar-16 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Feb % 0.40% 9-Mar-16 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan -0.20% 0.30% -0.10% 9-Mar-16 US Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Jan -0.30% -1.30% -0.30% 10-Mar-16 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Mar % 2.25% 2.50% 10-Mar-16 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Mar  b  933.8b 10-Mar-16 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Mar  252.4b  382.3b 10-Mar-16 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Mar  86.3b  211.8b 10-Mar-16 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Mar  138.5b -  b 10-Mar-16 JN PPI MoM Feb -0.30% -0.20% -0.90% 10-Mar-16 JN PPI YoY Feb -3.40% -3.40% -3.10% Consumer Inflation 10-Mar-16 AU Expectation Mar % 3.60% 10-Mar-16 UK RICS House Price Balance Feb 50% 50% 49% 10-Mar-16 CH CPI YoY Feb 1.80% 2.30% 1.80% 10-Mar-16 CH PPI YoY Feb -4.90% -4.90% -5.30% 10-Mar-16 JN Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies Feb Mar-16 FR Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ 4Q F 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 10-Mar-16 GE Trade Balance Jan 17.0b 13.6b 18.8b 10-Mar-16 GE Current Account Balance Jan 17.0b 13.2b 25.6b 10-Mar-16 GE Exports SA MoM Jan 0.80% -0.50% -1.60% 10-Mar-16 GE Imports SA MoM Jan 0.80% 1.20% -1.60% 10-Mar-16 GE Labor Costs WDA YoY 4Q % 2.40% 10-Mar-16 GE Labor Costs SA QoQ 4Q % 0.00% 10-Mar-16 FR Industrial Production MoM Jan 0.80% 1.30% -1.60% 10-Mar-16 FR Industrial Production YoY Jan 0.10% 2.00% -0.70% 10-Mar-16 FR Manufacturing Production MoM Jan 0.50% 0.80% -0.80% 10-Mar-16 FR Manufacturing Production YoY Jan 1.30% 2.80% 0.50% 10-Mar-16 SP Retail Sales YoY Jan % 3.20% 10-Mar-16 SP Retail Sales SA YoY Jan 3.10% 3.30% 2.20% 10-Mar-16 EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate Mar % 0.00% 0.05%

10 10-Mar-16 EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate Mar % -0.40% -0.30% 10-Mar-16 EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility Mar % 0.25% 0.30% 10-Mar-16 EC ECB Monetary Policy Decisions Statement 10-Mar-16 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar k 259k 278k 10-Mar-16 US Continuing Claims Feb k 2225k 2257k 10-Mar-16 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Mar Mar-16 US Household Change in Net Worth 4Q -- $1637b -$1232b 11-Mar-16 US Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$196.3b -$192.6b -$192.4b 11-Mar-16 NZ BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI Feb Mar-16 NZ Food Prices MoM Feb % 2.00% 11-Mar-16 NZ REINZ House Sales YoY Feb % 4.30% 11-Mar-16 JN BSI Large All Industry QoQ 1Q Mar-16 JN BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ 1Q Mar-16 GE Wholesale Price Index MoM Feb % -0.40% 11-Mar-16 GE Wholesale Price Index YoY Feb % -1.00% 11-Mar-16 GE CPI MoM Feb F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 11-Mar-16 GE CPI YoY Feb F 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 11-Mar-16 GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Feb F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 11-Mar-16 GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Feb F -0.20% -0.20% -0.20% 11-Mar-16 TH Foreign Reserves Mar $169.6b $167.7b 11-Mar-16 TH Forward Contracts Mar $11.0b $10.2b 11-Mar-16 SP CPI Core MoM Feb % -1.60% 11-Mar-16 SP CPI Core YoY Feb 0.80% 1.00% 0.90% 11-Mar-16 SP CPI EU Harmonised MoM Feb F -0.40% -0.40% -0.40% 11-Mar-16 SP CPI EU Harmonised YoY Feb F -0.90% -1.00% -0.90% 11-Mar-16 SP CPI MoM Feb F -0.30% -0.40% -0.30% 11-Mar-16 SP CPI YoY Feb F -0.80% -0.80% -0.80% 11-Mar-16 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Jan -Â Â Â Mar-16 UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Jan -Â Â Â Mar-16 UK Trade Balance Jan -Â Â Â Mar-16 UK Construction Output SA MoM Jan 0.20% -0.20% 1.50% 11-Mar-16 UK Construction Output SA YoY Jan -1.70% -0.80% 0.50% 11-Mar-16 UK BoE/TNS Inflation Next 12 Mths Feb % 2.00% 11-Mar-16 CH New Yuan Loans CNY Feb b 726.6b b 11-Mar-16 CH Aggregate Financing CNY Feb b 780.2b b 11-Mar-16 CH Money Supply M2 YoY Feb 13.70% 13.30% 14.00% 11-Mar-16 CH Money Supply M1 YoY Feb 18.90% 17.40% 18.60% 11-Mar-16 CH Money Supply M0 YoY Feb -3.10% -4.80% 15.10% 11-Mar-16 US Import Price Index MoM Feb -0.70% -0.30% -1.10% 11-Mar-16 US Import Price Index YoY Feb -6.50% -6.10% -6.20%

11 This Week Date Event Period Surv(M) Actual Prior 14-Mar-16 NZ Performance Services Index Feb Mar-16 JN Machine Orders MoM Jan 1.90% 15.00% 4.20% 14-Mar-16 JN Machine Orders YoY Jan -3.80% 8.40% -3.60% 14-Mar-16 AU Credit Card Balances Jan -- $A50.9b $A52.1b 14-Mar-16 AU Credit Card Purchases Jan -- $A21.9b $A27.6b 14-Mar-16 NZ Non Resident Bond Holdings Feb % 67.60% 14-Mar-16 EC Industrial Production SA MoM Jan 1.70% % 14-Mar-16 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan 1.60% % 15-Mar-16 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM Feb % 15-Mar-16 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY Feb % 15-Mar-16 AU RBA March Meeting Minutes 15-Mar-16 JN Industrial Production MoM Jan F % 15-Mar-16 JN Industrial Production YoY Jan F % 15-Mar-16 JN Capacity Utilization MoM Jan % 15-Mar-16 JN Tertiary Industry Index MoM Jan 0.30% % 15-Mar-16 FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM Feb F 0.30% % 15-Mar-16 FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY Feb F -0.10% % 15-Mar-16 FR CPI MoM Feb F 0.20% % 15-Mar-16 FR CPI YoY Feb F -0.20% % 15-Mar-16 FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index Feb Mar-16 EC Employment QoQ 4Q % 15-Mar-16 EC Employment YoY 4Q % 15-Mar-16 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb -0.10% % 15-Mar-16 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Feb -0.20% % 15-Mar-16 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Feb 0.20% % 15-Mar-16 US Retail Sales Control Group Feb 0.20% % 15-Mar-16 US PPI Final Demand MoM Feb -0.20% % 15-Mar-16 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Feb 0.10% % 15-Mar-16 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Feb 0.10% % 15-Mar-16 US PPI Final Demand YoY Feb 0.10% % 15-Mar-16 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Feb 1.20% % 15-Mar-16 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Feb % 15-Mar-16 US Empire Manufacturing Mar Mar-16 US NAHB Housing Market Index Mar Mar-16 US Business Inventories Jan 0.00% % 15-Mar-16 JN BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base Mar-15 Â 80t -- Â 80t 15-Mar-16 JN BOJ Monetary Policy Statement 15-Mar-16 JN BOJ Basic Balance Rate Mar % 15-Mar-16 JN BOJ Macro Add-On Balance Rate Mar % 15-Mar-16 JN BOJ Policy Rate Mar % % 16-Mar-16 US Total Net TIC Flows Jan $114.0b

12 16-Mar-16 US Net Long-term TIC Flows Jan $29.4b 16-Mar-16 NZ BoP Current Account Balance 4Q b b 16-Mar-16 NZ Current Account GDP Ratio YTD 4Q -3.30% % 16-Mar-16 AU Westpac Leading Index MoM Feb % 16-Mar-16 JN Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY Feb % 16-Mar-16 JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Feb F % 16-Mar-16 EC EU27 New Car Registrations Feb % 16-Mar-16 UK Claimant Count Rate Feb 2.20% % 16-Mar-16 UK Jobless Claims Change Feb -9.1k k 16-Mar-16 UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Jan 2.00% % 16-Mar-16 UK Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Jan 2.10% % 16-Mar-16 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jan 5.10% % 16-Mar-16 UK Employment Change 3M/3M Jan 144k k 16-Mar-16 EC Construction Output MoM Jan % 16-Mar-16 EC Construction Output YoY Jan % 16-Mar-16 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar % 16-Mar-16 US Housing Starts Feb 1150k k 16-Mar-16 US Housing Starts MoM Feb 4.60% % 16-Mar-16 US Building Permits Feb 1200k k 16-Mar-16 US Building Permits MoM Feb -0.20% % 16-Mar-16 US CPI MoM Feb -0.20% % 16-Mar-16 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Feb 0.20% % 16-Mar-16 US CPI YoY Feb 0.90% % 16-Mar-16 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Feb 2.20% % 16-Mar-16 US CPI Index NSA Feb Mar-16 US CPI Core Index SA Feb Mar-16 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Feb % 16-Mar-16 US Industrial Production MoM Feb -0.30% % 16-Mar-16 US Capacity Utilization Feb 76.90% % 16-Mar-16 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Feb 0.10% % 17-Mar-16 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) Mar % % 17-Mar-16 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Mar % % 17-Mar-16 NZ GDP SA QoQ 4Q 0.70% % 17-Mar-16 NZ GDP YoY 4Q 2.10% % 17-Mar-16 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Mar  b 17-Mar-16 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Mar  252.4b 17-Mar-16 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Mar  86.3b 17-Mar-16 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Mar  138.5b 17-Mar-16 JN Trade Balance Feb  400.2b -- - 645.9b 17-Mar-16 JN Trade Balance Adjusted Feb  235.0b --  119.4b 17-Mar-16 JN Exports YoY Feb Mar-16 JN Imports YoY Feb Mar-16 AU Employment Change Feb 13.5k k

13 17-Mar-16 AU Unemployment Rate Feb 6.00% % 17-Mar-16 AU Full Time Employment Change Feb k 17-Mar-16 AU Part Time Employment Change Feb k 17-Mar-16 AU Participation Rate Feb 65.20% % 17-Mar-16 AU RBA FX Transactions Government Feb m 17-Mar-16 AU RBA FX Transactions Market Feb m 17-Mar-16 AU RBA FX Transactions Other Feb m 17-Mar-16 EC Trade Balance SA Jan 19.5b b 17-Mar-16 EC Trade Balance NSA Jan 10.0b b 17-Mar-16 EC CPI MoM Feb 0.10% % 17-Mar-16 EC CPI YoY Feb F -0.20% % 17-Mar-16 EC CPI Core YoY Feb F 0.70% % 17-Mar-16 UK Bank of England Bank Rate Mar % % 17-Mar-16 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Mar 375b b 17-Mar-16 US Current Account Balance 4Q -$117.4b -- -$124.1b 17-Mar-16 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar Mar-16 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar k k 17-Mar-16 US Continuing Claims Mar k k 17-Mar-16 US Bloomberg Economic Expectations Mar Mar-16 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Mar Mar-16 US JOLTS Job Openings Jan Mar-16 US Leading Index Feb 0.20% % 18-Mar-16 NZ ANZ Job Advertisements MoM Feb % 18-Mar-16 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Mar Mar-16 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Mar % 18-Mar-16 CH China February Property Prices 18-Mar-16 JN Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY Feb % 18-Mar-16 JN Nationwide Dept Sales YoY Feb % 18-Mar-16 GE PPI MoM Feb -0.10% % 18-Mar-16 GE PPI YoY Feb -2.60% % 18-Mar-16 TH Foreign Reserves Mar $169.6b 18-Mar-16 TH Forward Contracts Mar $11.0b 18-Mar-16 FR Wages QoQ 4Q F % 18-Mar-16 SP Labour Costs YoY 4Q % 18-Mar-16 EC Labour Costs YoY 4Q % 18-Mar-16 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar P Mar-16 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Mar P Mar-16 US U. of Mich. Expectations Mar P Mar-16 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Mar P % 18-Mar-16 US U. of Mich Yr Inflation Mar P %