DAILY UPDATE 29/09/2014

Transcription

1 Key Economic Data Results 29/09:- DAILY UPDATE 29/09/2014 Event Survey Actual Prior Revised Date Time CPI Saxony MoM % 0.00% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI Brandenburg MoM % 0.00% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI Hesse MoM % 0.00% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI Bavaria MoM % 0.10% -- 09/29/ :00 GE Net Consumer Credit 0.8B 0.9B 1.1B -- 09/29/ :30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings 2.1B 2.3B 2.3B -- 09/29/ :30 UK Mortgage Approvals 65.0K 64.2K 66.6K 66.1K 09/29/ :30 UK Money Supply M4 MoM % 0.30% 0.20% 09/29/ :30 UK M4 Money Supply YoY % -1.00% -- 09/29/ :30 UK M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised % 3.80% 3.40% 09/29/ :30 UK CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM % 0.10% -- 09/29/ :30 GE Retail Sales Value YoY -2.00% 3.40% -3.10% -3.20% 09/29/ :30 HK Economic Confidence /29/ :00 EC Industrial Confidence /29/ :00 EC Consumer Confidence /29/ :00 EC Services Confidence /29/ :00 EC Business Climate Indicator /29/ :00 EC CPI MoM -0.10% 0.00% 0.00% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI YoY 0.80% 0.80% 0.80% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM -0.10% 0.00% 0.00% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% -- 09/29/ :00 GE CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM % 0.00% -- 09/29/ :00 GE Personal Income 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% -- 09/29/ :30 US Personal Spending 0.40% 0.50% -0.10% 0.00% 09/29/ :30 US PCE Deflator MoM -0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 09/29/ :30 US

2 PCE Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.50% 1.60% -- 09/29/ :30 US PCE Core MoM 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% -- 09/29/ :30 US PCE Core YoY 1.40% 1.50% 1.50% -- 09/29/ :30 US Bloomberg Nanos Confidence /29/ :00 CA Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% -1.00% 3.30% 3.20% 09/29/ :00 US Pending Home Sales YoY -1.40% -4.10% -2.70% -2.80% 09/29/ :00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity /29/ :30 US Building Permits MoM 0.00% % -- 09/29/ :45 NZ Asian Markets The Day that was:- Asian stocks ended mixed on Monday, as political unrest in Hong Kong and falling commodity prices due to a stronger dollar offset optimism about the overall U.S. growth outlook. With fears intensifying over an early rise in U.S. interest rates, investors awaited a slew of U.S. data due this week, including the all-important jobs data due on Friday, for further direction. Chinese shares extended gains for a fifth day to finish at a 19-month high, unaffected by losses elsewhere in Hong Kong, where the benchmark Hang Seng index fell nearly 2 percent to end at 23,229.21, hit by concerns over pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index gained 0.43 percent to close at 2,357.71, its highest level since March 1, Investors also shrugged off weak data showing a decline in profits at industrial companies in China for the first time in two years in August. Tokyo stocks advanced, with sentiment bolstered by a weaker yen after data showed U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.6 per cent in the spring, the fastest pace in 2-1/2 years. The benchmark Nikkei average rose half a percent to 16, Australian shares fell to their lowest levels in over 7 months, as banks fell across the board and mining stocks continued to come under selling pressure amid falling commodity prices. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 0.93 percent to 5,264.20, its lowest level since February. New Zealand shares rose, led by companies with large offshore earnings, as the kiwi dollar fell to US cents, its lowest level since August , on data showing the central bank sold a net $NZ521 million ($A million) in foreign exchange markets in August, the most in seven years.

3 XAUUSD: -0.22% High: Low: Close: Daily Support 1: Daily Support 2: Daily Resistance 1: Daily Resistance 2: Gold ended slightly lower on Monday even with investors moving to the yellow metal as safe haven after the dollar trended lower on some mixed economic data from the U.S. with pending home sales pulling back more than expected in August. Investors digested a mixed batch of U.S. economic data including a report showing consumer spending to have risen more than expected in August. A report from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales in the U.S. to have dropped more than expected in August, even as personal spending in the U.S. rose more than expected in August. A weak report on Eurozone economic confidence and sluggish commodity prices are weighing as well. Worries about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and news about clashes between the police and pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong appear to be hurting the market. Investors await this week's deluge of U.S. economic data, with gold falling sharply of late amid an unusually rapid strengthening of the dollar, although the dollar dropped against major rivals today. Technical Insight: Gold hardly changed for the day as mixed data from the US made investors rush to the yellow metal as a safe haven. Gold continues to trade along the bearish trendline.

4 EURUSD: 0.01% High: Low: Close: Daily Support 1: Daily Support 2: Daily Resistance 1: Daily Resistance 2: EURUSD was up 0.01% at , from a session low of and high of Expectations for U.S. monetary policy to grow less accommodative at a time when Europe may move to loosen have firmed the dollar in recent sessions, though by Monday, mixed U.S. data gave investors room to sell the dollar for profits. The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that its pending home sales index fell 1.0% to in August from in July. Economists had expected the index to tick down 0.1% last month. Separately, the Commerce Department said that U.S. personal spending rose 0.5% in August, beating expectations for an increase of 0.4%, after a 0.1% dip in July. The euro, meanwhile, saw demand from bottom fishers. Technical Insight: Today we have seen the euro gain on the dollar after some mixed data releases from the US and investors taking the opportunity to take profits.

5 GBPUSD: -0.06% High: Low: Close: Daily Support 1: Daily Support 2: Daily Resistance 1: Daily Resistance 2: GBPUSD was down 0.06% at , from a session low of and a high of Expectations for U.S. monetary policy to grow less accommodative at a time when Europe may move to loosen have firmed the dollar in recent sessions, though by Monday, mixed U.S. data gave investors room to sell the dollar for profits. The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that its pending home sales index fell 1.0% to in August from in July. Economists had expected the index to tick down 0.1% last month. Separately, the Commerce Department said that U.S. personal spending rose 0.5% in August, beating expectations for an increase of 0.4%, after a 0.1% dip in July. Technical insight: Today we have seen the pound sterling gain very slightly on the dollar after some mixed data releases from the US and investors taking the opportunity to take profits.

6 KEY Data: 30 th September 2014:- Event Survey Actual Prior Date Time Jobless Rate 3.80% % 09/30/ :30 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio /30/ :30 JN Overall Household Spending YoY -3.60% % 09/30/ :30 JN ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index /30/ :30 AU Retail Trade YoY 0.10% % 09/30/ :50 JN Retail Sales MoM 0.50% % 09/30/ :50 JN Industrial Production MoM 0.20% % 09/30/ :50 JN Industrial Production YoY -1.10% % 09/30/ :50 JN ANZ Activity Outlook /30/ :00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence /30/ :00 NZ Labor Cash Earnings YoY 0.90% % 09/30/ :30 JN Private Sector Credit MoM 0.50% % 09/30/ :30 AU Private Sector Credit YoY 5.20% % 09/30/ :30 AU HSBC China Manufacturing PMI /30/ :45 CH Money Supply M3 YoY % 09/30/ :00 NZ Vehicle Production YoY % 09/30/ :00 JN Housing Starts YoY % % 09/30/ :00 JN Annualized Housing Starts 0.837M M 09/30/ :00 JN Construction Orders YoY % 09/30/ :00 JN Nationwide House PX MoM 0.50% % 09/30/ :00 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY 10.40% % 09/30/ :00 UK Retail Sales MoM 0.50% % 09/30/ :00 GE Retail Sales YoY 0.30% % 09/30/ :00 GE Unemployment Change (000's) -2K -- 2K 09/30/ :55 GE Unemployment Rate 6.70% % 09/30/ :55 GE Lloyds Business Barometer /30/ :30 UK

7 GDP QoQ 0.80% % 09/30/ :30 UK GDP YoY 3.20% % 09/30/ :30 UK Current Account Balance -18.0B B 09/30/ :30 UK Index of Services MoM 0.30% % 09/30/ :30 UK Index of Services 3M/3M 1.00% % 09/30/ :30 UK Total Business Investment QoQ % 09/30/ :30 UK Total Business Investment YoY % 09/30/ :30 UK Unemployment Rate 11.50% % 09/30/ :00 EC CPI Estimate YoY 0.30% % 09/30/ :00 EC CPI Core YoY 0.90% % 09/30/ :00 EC GDP MoM 0.30% % 09/30/ :30 CA GDP YoY 2.80% % 09/30/ :30 CA Industrial Product Price MoM -0.20% % 09/30/ :30 CA Raw Materials Price Index MoM -1.50% % 09/30/ :30 CA ISM Milwaukee /30/ :00 US S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA 0.00% % 09/30/ :00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY 7.40% % 09/30/ :00 US S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA /30/ :00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI NSA /30/ :00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY % 09/30/ :00 US Chicago Purchasing Manager /30/ :45 US Consumer Confidence Index /30/ :00 US We have the release of a basket full of data out of all the major economies on the 30 th September We start in the Asian session with the major release of jobless rate from Japan. Japan will also release their Retail Sales data and Vehicle production. We then move to the European and UK session of trading and the release of Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate from Germany, we then have the release of GDP data from the UK soon after the German release. The EC then release their unemployment data before we move to the US session and have GDP data from Canada and ISM Milwaukee and Consumer Confidence Index data from the US.

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