PMI and economic outlook

Transcription

1 PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017

2 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every month 87% Global GDP

3 3 NEVI Netherlands PMI 65 Expanding Dot com bubble bursts Euro replaces guilder Eurozone debt Global crisis financial crisis prompts ECB stimulus Eurozone debt crisis worsens 50 ECB cuts rates and extends QE 45 ECB starts buying govt debt 40 Contracting

4 4 Netherlands economy Netherlands economy & GDP Netherlands economy & GDP trend

5 5 Netherlands economy Exports Manufacturing employment

6 6 Manufacturing PMI: business activity

7 7 Eurozone economy Eurozone economy & GDP Eurozone employment

8 8 EU economy

9 9 Eurozone supply chains Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Input Prices Index 90 Eurozone PMI Suppliers' Delivery Times Index (inverted) Eurozone PMI manufacturing input prices 20 Eurozone PMI suppliers' delivery times 10 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '

10 10 Manufacturing PMI: input prices

11 11 Interest rates ECB policy and business activity ECB policy and price pressures

12 12 Global economy Developed market output Emerging market output

13 13 Global economy Global GDP and the PMI Developed v emerging market output

14 14 Global price pressures Prices and supply delays Output and supply delays

15 15 Industrial materials prices remain well below previous peaks IHS Markit weekly indexes, 2002:1= All industrial materials Chemicals Nonferrous metals

16 16 Global outlook

17 17 Global economy Annual % change Why did world trade slow? Real GDP Industrial production 5 4 Real goods & services trade Cyclical forces Slow growth in aggregate world demand Weak capital spending Collapse in commodity prices 3 Shift from manufacturing to services 2 Structural forces Shortening of global supply chains Lack of trade liberalization Technological advances

18 18 Consumer price inflation Annual % change World Advanced countries Emerging markets Why is inflation so low? No sustained inflationary liftoff yet anywhere. Many explanations, but little consensus Prices: > Lacklustre growth and large output gaps > Excess industrial capacity > Technology > Rolling positive supply shocks (e.g. commodity markets) Wage inflation: > Labor market slack > Demographics > Poor productivity growth > Technology and globalization > Earnings pressure and the shift in market power Bottom line: Inflation will rise in the next couple of years but slowly

19 19 Crude oil US$ per barrel Current US dollars 2016 US dollars Strong seasonal demand, declining US crude oil inventories, and expectations that US supply growth will moderate are supporting prices. If prices stay over USD60/barrel, US supplies will surge. Although world oil demand growth will remain firm, a production surplus will reemerge through North America, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and Kazakhstan will contribute to global production growth. OPEC will likely continue to restrict its output through the end of This decision could be made at its 30 November ministerial meeting. Price increases are expected after 2018, when supply growth slows. There is no shortage of geopolitical risks to oil supplies, including those posed by tensions between Iraqi federal and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) forces as well as the possibility of the United States reimposing nuclear-related sanctions on Iran.

20 20 Real GDP growth in major economies Real GDP Percent change World United States Canada Eurozone United Kingdom China Japan India* Brazil Russia

21 21 National economic outlooks Annual % change in real GDP

22 22 Eurozone outlook After a solid performance in the first three quarters of 2017, the Eurozone economy is expected to grow 2.4% this year and 2.1% in Monetary stimulus, better access to credit, reduced fiscal headwinds, and rising consumer and business confidence will help sustain growth. Challenges remain. The banking and political situations in Italy are fragile. The rising popularity of nationalist parties in Germany and Austria, and Catalonia s independence proclamation are concerns. Underlying price pressures remain subdued. Core inflation retreated to 0.9% y/y in October, while overall inflation eased to 1.4% y/y. Monetary policy remains accommodative; the European Central Bank is not expected to raise interest rates until the third quarter of Ireland, Spain, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands will maintain relatively healthy economic growth, but the United Kingdom and Italy will lag behind.

23 23 National economic outlooks Annual % change in real GDP

24 24 Netherlands in 2018 GDP +2.2% v +3.2% 2017) Domestic demand buoyed (+1.6% v +2.2% 2017) by fall in unemployment rate to 4.5% Fixed investment & government consumption also set to rise Exports a key driver of 2018 growth (+3.6% v +4.8% 2017), despite stronger euro.

25 25 Interest rates %, end of quarter United States Eurozone Japan United Kingdom

26 26 Exchange rate Euro gaining from: better euro area economic news, diminished domestic political uncertainty Trump-related concerns Trade imbalances to put downward pressure on US$ Monetary policy timing Euro per US dollar 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 0,75 0,70 0,65 0,

27 27 What could go wrong? The average duration of an expansion does not tell us much and neither does low unemployment The usual suspects are low-level threats for the moment Monetary (over) tightening Oil shocks Bursting asset bubbles And not all shocks cause recessions But policy mistakes are possibly the biggest threat now A central bank mistake Fiscal debacle Trade war Mismanaged China debt crisis Geopolitical threats (North Korea, Syria, Ukraine etc.) are low probability but potentially high impact events. In Europe, Brexit, the banking and political situations in Italy, the rising popularity of nationalist parties in Germany and Austria, and Catalonia s independence proclamation are concerns. Bottom line: Left to its own devices, the global expansion could go on for another couple of years.