Weekly GLOBAL Macroeconomic Update WEEKLY SUMMARY

Transcription

1 Weekly GLOBAL Macroeconomic Update WEEKLY SUMMARY US Europe LatAm New disclosure rules about closings caused existing home sales to drop sharply in November; sales fell by 10.5 month over month and by 3.8 year over year. New single- family home sales in November were up by 9.1 over the same month in In November, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.4 compared to the same month last year. Inflation remains below the Fed s 2 target, and has been impacted heavily by the continuing drop in oil prices. For the week ending December 19, the four- week moving average jobless claims figure was 272,500. In the UK, GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.4 over the second quarter. The GfK UK Consumer Confidence Index increased by one point in December. In France, GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.3 over the second quarter. Unemployment in France fell by 0.4 in November compared to the previous month. In Germany, the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped by 2.5 in November, year over year, impacted by declining energy prices. In Mexico, several indicators point to a positive outlook, including retail sales, which increased by 0.3 in October month over month and by 4.8 year over year. Mexico s trade deficit increased modestly in November, to US$1,568.8 million. The unemployment rate in Mexico dropped to 3.96 in November. GDP GDP Growth Rate: QoQ Change 4Q Q Q Q 2015 US UK Germany France Mexico Brazil Source: OECD 1

2 MOVERS US Total US existing home sales fell by 10.5 month over month in November and by 3.8 year over year, the first year- over- year decrease since September The drop is attributed to new disclosure rules related to closing transactions, the Know Before You Owe initiative. Sales of new single- family homes in November totaled 490,000 (seasonally adjusted), 9.1 above the November 2014 estimate of 449,000. The PCE Price Index increased by less than 0.1 in November, month over month; in October, it increased by 0.1. The index increased by 0.4 year over year in November, which was the largest gain since December Inflation remains below the Fed s 2 target, and has been impacted heavily by the continuing drop in oil prices. Figure 1. US Existing and New Home Sales: YoY Change Nov Nov (2) Figure 2. US PCE Price Index: YoY Change Nov Nov (3.8) (4) Nov- 10 Nov- 11 Nov- 12 Nov- 13 Nov- 14 Exiskng Home Sales Source: National Association of Realtors/US Census Bureau Single- Family Home Sales Nov- 10 Nov- 11 Nov- 12 Nov- 13 Nov Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis In the week ending December 19, the advance figure for the seasonally adjusted four- week moving average of jobless claims was 272,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week s revised average. The previous week s average was revised up by 250, from 270,500 to 270,750. Figure 3. US Initial Jobless Claims Dec Dec. 19, , , , , , , ,000 Dec- 10 Dec- 11 Dec- 12 Dec- 13 Source: US Department of Labor 2

3 MOVERS UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY GfK s Consumer Confidence Index increased by one point, to 2, in December. As measured by the index, consumer confidence has remained strong through 2015, averaging a reading of 3 for the past 12 months. Figure 4. UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index Dec Dec (5.0) (1) France s jobless total fell by 15,000 in November, pulling back from a record high reached in October. The number of unemployed in November dropped by 0.4 month over month. The indicator shows a volatile labor market as the country s economy looks to gain momentum. In November, the PPI continued to fall in Germany. The PPI for industrial products dropped by 2.5 in November compared to the same month last year. The main reason behind the decline was a drop in energy prices, which fell by 7.1 year over year in November. (15.0) Dec- 13 Jun- 14 Source: GfK Figure 5. France Number of Unemployed: MoM Change Nov Nov (0.5) (0.4) () Nov- 14 Source: Ministry of Labour Figure 6. Germany PPI: YoY Change Nov Nov () () (2.5) (3.0) Nov- 12 May- 13 Nov- 13 May- 14 Nov- 14 Source: Destatis 3

4 MOVERS Mexico In October, retail sales in Mexico increased by 0.3 month over month, after having dropped by 1.1 in September. Year over year, sales continued to increase, registering a 4.8 gain in October. Figure 7. Mexico Retail Sales: Change Oct Oct () () Oct- 14 Month over Month (lem) Year over Year (right) Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) In Mexico, the trade deficit increased for the third consecutive month in November, to US$1,568.8 million. The unemployment rate in Mexico unexpectedly dropped to 3.96 in November, from 4.55 in October, a positive indication for the country s economy. Figure 8. Mexico Balance of Trade Nov Nov USD Mil. (50) (1,00) (1,50) (2,00) (2,50) (3,00) Figure 9. Mexico Unemployment Rate Nov Nov (1,568.8) (3,50) Nov- 14 Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) Nov- 14 Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) 4

5 US MARKET DATA US Government Bond Yields (Percent) 1 Week US Markets 1 Week 2- Year Treasury Dow Jones 17, , , Year Treasury S&P 500 2, , , Year Treasury Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Indexes US Regular Gas Price (USD) 18,600 2,160 $ ,100 17,600 2,110 2,060 $ ,100 2,010 $ ,600 16,100 15,600 Dow Jones Ind. Avg. (lem) S&P 500 Index (right) 1,960 1,910 1,860 $2.25 $0 12/28/ Source: Bloomberg/US Energy Information Administration EUROPE MARKET DATA Government Bond Yields (Percent) UK 2- Year UK 5- Year Germany 2- Year* Germany 5- Year* France 2- Year France 5- Year FTSE 100 Index 7,200 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 6,255 CAC 40 Index 5,500 5,000 4,663 DAX Index 12,400 11,400 4,500 10,400 4,000 9,400 12/23/ ,728 Source: Investing.com/S&P Capital IQ * Reading is for 12/23/2015. Markets in Germany were closed on 5

6 LATIN AMERICA MARKET DATA Government Bond Yields (Percent) 1 Week Mexico 5- Year Mexico 10- Year Brazil 5- Year Brazil 10- Year Mexico: IPC Index 46,900 45,900 44,900 43,900 42,900 41,900 40,900 43,528 Markets 1 Week IPC Mexico 43, , , Bovespa Brazil* 44, , , Brazil: Bovespa Index 60,500 58,500 56,500 54,500 52,500 50,500 48,500 46,500 44,500 42,500 12/23/ ,015 Source: Investing.com/S&P Capital IQ * Reading is for 12/23/2015. Markets in Brazil were closed on Macro Calendar Country/Region Date Release Period Covered US December 29, 2015 S&P/Case- Shiller Home Price Index October 2015 US December 29, 2015 Consumer Confidence December 2015 UK December 30, 2015 Nationwide Housing Prices December 2015 US December 30, 2015 Pending Home Sales November 2015 US December 31, 2015 Initial Jobless Claims December 2015 US December 31, 2015 PMI December 2015 Germany January 4, 2016 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final December 2015 France January 4, 2016 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final December 2015 UK January 4, 2016 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI December 2015 US January 4, 2016 ISM Manufacturing PMI December 2015 Mexico January 4, 2016 Markit Manufacturing PMI December 2015 Brazil January 5, 2016 Balance of Trade December 2015 Germany January 5, 2016 Retail Sales November 2015 Germany January 5, 2016 Unemployment Rate December 2015 UK January 5, 2016 Construction PMI December

7 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: Hong Kong: Filippo Battaini Marie Driscoll, CFA John Harmon, CFA Aragorn Ho John Mercer Shoshana Pollack Kiril Popov Jing Wang Steven Winnick HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9 th Floor New York, NY Tel: LONDON: Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0) FBICGROUP.COM 7