Weekly GLOBAL Macroeconomic Update WEEKLY SUMMARY

Transcription

1 Weekly GLOBAL Macroeconomic Update WEEKLY SUMMARY US The US Producer Price index (PPI) for final demand decreased by 0.2 in December over the previous month. US retail sales in December increased by 2.2 year over year, but sales excluding motor vehicles and parts rose by only 1.2. US industrial production in December dropped 0.4 from November. The four- week moving average of jobless claims for the week ending January 9 was 278,750, which was 3,000 more than the previous week. Europe In the UK, total production output in November was 0.9 higher than in the same month in In France, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2 in December over the same month in the preceding year. In Germany, the wholesale price index in December decreased by 0.1 year over year. LatAm In Mexico, industrial output increased by 0.1 in November versus the same period a year earlier In Brazil, retail sales in November increased by 1.5 over October. GDP GDP Growth Rate: QoQ Change 1Q Q Q Q 2015 US N/A UK N/A Germany France N/A Mexico N/A Source: OECD Brazil N/A 1

2 MOVERS US The US PPI for final demand decreased by 0.2 in December, reversing the upward movement that started in November. Figure 1. US PPI for Final Demand (Seasonally Adjusted) Dec Dec The PPI decreased by 1.1 on an annual basis, reflecting the general decrease in price levels over the past year. 0.4 (0.4) 2.0 (0.8) Dec- 12 Jun- 13 Dec- 13 Jun- 14 Dec- 14 MoM Change (lei) YoY Change (right) In December, total US sales rose by only 2.2, the smallest gain since December 2009 and well below the 3.9 increase recorded for December Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales rose by 1.2, which shows slow growth and is bad news for US retailers. Industrial production declined by 0.4 month over month in December, primarily as a result of cutbacks in utilities and mining. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased by 0.4 in December, to 76.5, a rate that is 3.6 below its long- term average. In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for the seasonally adjusted four- week moving average of jobless claims was 278,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week s unrevised average of 275,750. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 2. US Retail Sales (Seasonally Adjusted) Dec Dec Dec- 10 Dec- 11 Dec- 12 Dec- 13 Dec- 14 Total Sales Total Sales ex- Auto Motor Vehicles & Parts Source: US Census Bureau Figure 3. US Industrial Production (Seasonally Adjusted) Dec Dec (0.5) (3.0) Dec- 12 Jun- 13 Dec- 13 Jun- 14 Dec- 14 Source: US Federal Reserve Figure 4. US Initial Jobless Claims: Four- Week Moving Average Jan Jan , , ,000 MoM Change (lei axis) YoY Change (right axis) 300, , ,000 Jan- 10 Jan- 11 Jan- 12 Jan- 13 Jan- 14 Source: US Department of Labor 2

3 MOVERS UK, FRANCE AND GERMANY UK total production output is estimated to have increased by 0.9 in November compared with the same month a year earlier. Manufacturing output decreased by 1.2 in November compared with November In December, the CPI in France recovered, increasing by 0.2 over the same month a year prior. The index had been unchanged in November. In December, the wholesale price index in Germany decreased by year over year. It had fallen by 1.1 in November over the same month in the preceding year. Figure 5. UK Manufacturing Production (2012 = 100) Nov Nov Figure 6. France CPI: YoY Change Dec Dec Figure 7. Germany Wholesale Price Index: YoY Change Dec Dec Nov- 13 May- 14 Nov- 14 Manufacturing Producjon Source: Office for National Statistics (0.2) (0.4) (0.6) Dec- 13 Jun- 14 Dec- 14 Source: INSEE (0.5) () (1.5) (2.5) () (3.0) Dec- 13 Jun- 14 Dec- 14 Source: Destatis 3

4 MOVERS MEXICO AND BRAZIL In Mexico, industrial production in November stagnated. The index increased by only 0.1 over the same month in the previous year. Figure 8. Mexico Industrial Output: YoY Change Nov Nov () 0.1 Nov- 14 In Brazil, retail sales in November increased by 1.5 over the preceding month. The October figure was revised downward to a 0.5 increase over September. Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía Figure 9. Brazil Retail Sales: MoM Change Nov Nov () (3.0) Nov- 14 Source: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística 4

5 US MARKET DATA US Government Bond Yields (Percent) 1 Week US Markets WEEKLY MACROECONOMIC UPDATE 1 Week 2- Year Treasury Dow Jones 15, , , Year Treasury S&P 500 1, , , Year Treasury Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Indexes US Regular Gas Price (USD) 18,600 Dow Jones Ind. Avg. (lei) S&P 500 Index (right) 2,160 $ ,100 2,110 $ ,600 17,100 16,600 2,060 2,010 1,960 $2.50 $2.25 1/18/ ,100 1,910 $ ,600 1,860 $1.75 Source: Bloomberg/US Energy Information Administration EUROPE MARKET DATA Government Bond Yields (Percent) UK 2- Year UK 5- Year Germany 2- Year Germany 5- Year France 2- Year France 5- Year 4 8 FTSE 100 Index 7,200 7,000 6,800 6,600 6,400 6,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,804 CAC 40 Index 5,500 DAX Index 13,000 5,000 4,210 4,500 4,000 12,000 11,000 9,545 10,000 9,000 Source: Investing.com/S&P Capital IQ 5

6 LATIN AMERICA MARKET DATA Government Bond Yields (Percent) 1 Week Markets WEEKLY MACROECONOMIC UPDATE 1 Week Mexico 5- Year IPC Mexico 40, , , Mexico 10- Year Bovespa Brazil 38, , , Brazil 5- Year Brazil 10- Year Mexico: IPC Index 47,000 46,000 45,000 44,000 Brazil: Bovespa Index 63,000 58,000 53,000 43,000 42,000 41,000 40,000 40,848 48,000 43,000 38,000 38,569 Source: Investing.com/S&P Capital IQ Macro Calendar Country/Region Date Release Period Covered France January 21, 2016 Business Climate January 2016 US January 22, 2016 Markit Manufacturing PMI January 2016 Germany January 22, 2016 Markit PMI Composite January 2016 France January 22, 2016 Markit PMI Composite January 2016 UK January 22, 2016 Retail Sales December 2015 UK January 26, 2016 GfK Consumer Confidence January 2016 US January 26, 2016 S&P/Case- Shiller Home Price Indices November 2015 US January 26, 2016 Markit PMI Composite January 2016 US January 26, 2016 Consumer Confidence January

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