Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013

Transcription

1 Citi Equity Capital Markets October 29, 2013 Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales

2 1. Global Markets 2

3 Price Performance (%) GDP Growth (%) Global Environment at Inflection Point Developed Markets Outperforming Global Markets 2013 to Date World Index Performance 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 39% 22% 17% 13% (5%) (9%) Source: Factset. Brazil Bovespa U.S. S&P 500 UK FTSE 100 Germany DAX Japan Nikkei 225 MSCI Lat Am Outsized GDP Emerging Market Growth Forecasts GDP Growth % by Region 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% 1.7% 2.5% 1.2% 2.7% 3.2% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.2% Source: Citi Research. 2013E 2014E 2015E U.S. Global Industrial Countries Emerging Markets 3

4 Key Economic Forecasts GDP Growth CPI Inflation Short Term Interest Rates Country / Region 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E Global Macro Global Industrial Countries Emerging Markets US and Euro Zone US Euro Zone Emerging Markets China Brazil Mexico Source: Citi Research. 4

5 US Markets At or Near All Time Highs Major Indices Hit All Time Highs 2013 YTD Price Performance of Major Indices 135% 130% 30% 125% 23% 120% 18% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 S&P 500 NASDAQ DJIA Source: FactSet. 5

6 Price Performance Markets Were Volatile During the US Budget Shutdown Markets Retreated as Political Uncertainties Come to Focus Equity Markets Since August 8% 25% 6% 4% 2% 0% (2%) 20% 15% Volatility (4%) (6%) Aug Sep Oct S&P 500 NASDAQ VIX 10% Source: Bloomberg and FactSet. Equity Funds Flow Slowed During the Government Shutdown YTD Weekly Funds Flow $7 $5 First week of negative equity fund flows since December 2012 $3 $3 $4 $2 $2 $3 $2 $2 $3 $2 $3 $2 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $4 $3 $2 $4 $2 $2 $2 $1 $3 $2 $1 $2 ($0) ($0) ($3) 01/02 01/23 02/13 03/06 03/27 04/17 05/08 05/29 06/19 07/10 07/31 08/21 09/11 10/02 Source: Citi. 6

7 Volatility Increased But Market Remained Open Modest Issuance through the Shutdown Debate Issuance ($ mm / # of deals) $4,948 $3,563 $4,129 $4,522 $3,930 Avg: $3,274 $905 09/06 09/13 09/20 09/27 10/04 10/11 Week Ending CONV FO IPO IPO FO Conv Source: Dealogic. 7

8 US Valuation Metrics 12 Month Forward P/E Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Abs Rel Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. Growth Forecast Trends 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 CY13 CY14 CY15 Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. 8

9 Europe Equity Market Backdrop 2013 YTD Price Performance of Major Indices 145% 135% 125% 20% 115% 18% 14% 105% 95% 85% Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 MSCI EAFE FTSE 100 DAX Source: FactSet. 10

10 Spread (bps) 5 Yr CDS Spread (bps) European Default Expectations Lowered European Sovereign Concerns Moderate 2011 to Date European Sovereign CDS Spreads 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Greece Portugal Italy Ireland UK Spain Source: Bloomberg. Volatility Dampens as European Concerns Subside 2011 to Date % 40% % 20% VIX Index (%) % Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Spain CDS VIX Source: Bloomberg and FactSet. 11

11 European Valuation Metrics 12 Month Forward P/E Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. Abs Rel Growth Forecast Trends 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 CY13 CY14 CY15 Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. 12

12 Emerging Markets Equity Market Backdrop 2013 YTD Price Performance of Major Indices 123% 21% 118% 113% 108% 103% 1% 98% 93% (-5)% 88% 83% Jan-13 Feb-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World MSCI Latin America Source: FactSet. 14

13 Price Performance (%) Latin America Equity Market Update The Latin American Equity Markets have bounced back from their mid-2012 lows. Struggling 2013 YTD 2013 to Date LatAm Index Performance 140% 38% 130% 120% 110% 13% 8% 100% 90% (2%) (8%) 80% (19%) 70% Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Mexico Bolsa Chile IPSA Peru IGBVL Colombia IGBC Brazil Bovespa S&P 500 Source: FactSet. 16

14 Price Performance (%) Price Performance (%) Latin America Equity Market Update LatAm Indexes Lag the S&P YTD LatAm Index Performance 120% 18% 110% 100% 90% 80% (5%) (7%) (11%) (14%) Source: FactSet. 70% Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Mexico Bolsa Brazil Bovespa Colombia IGBC S&P 500 Chile IPSA LatAm Indexes Lag the S&P Day LatAm Index Performance 117% 112% 107% 102% 97% 92% Aug-08 Aug-15 Aug-22 Aug-29 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19 Sep-26 Oct-03 Mexico Bolsa Brazil Bovespa Colombia IGBC S&P 500 Chile IPSA 7% 2% 2% (1%) (7%) Source: FactSet. 17

15 Latin America Valuation Metrics 12 Month Forward P/E Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Abs Rel Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. Growth Forecast Trends 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 CY13 CY14 CY15 Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. 18

16 Global Valuation Metrics Forward P/E EPS Growth Global Country / Region 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E World Asia Emerging Markets US and Euro Zone US Euro Zone Emerging Markets Latin America Brazil Mexico China Source: Citi Research. 19

17 3. LatAm Equity Capital Markets 20

18 # of Deals / Issuance ($bn) Latin America Equity Market Update 2013 YTD LatAm Equity Issuance on Pace for a Strong Year # Deals / Proceeds (US $bn) 48 / $54 bn 23 / $25 bn 35 / $30 bn 61 / $31 bn 42 / $23 bn 29 / $17 bn 71% 52 / $29 bn Same Pd YTD Source: Dealogic. Excludes SPACs, CLEFs, rights offerings, offerings < US$100 mm and the 2010 Petrobras deals. IPO Follow-On Convertible LatAm Equity Offerings Breakdown by Country By Proceeds (US $bn) 10% 3% 7% 4% 4% 5% 46% 29% 19% 87% 89% 91% 12% 39% 40% 42% 31% 41% YTD Brazil Mexico Andean Source: Dealogic. Excludes SPACs, CLEFs, rights offerings, offerings < US$100 mm and the 2010 Petrobras deals. 21

19 ($ in millions) LatAm IPO Size Requirements Remains around $ mm 2008 to Date LatAm IPO Size Evolution Median LatAm IPO Size $464 $375 $404 $388 $379 $ YTD Source: Dealogic. Excludes SPACs, CLEFs, and offerings < US $150 mm to Date LatAm IPO Size Evolution % of Deals Per Size $500 mm - $1,000 mm 16% < $250 mm 14% > $1,000 mm 16% $250 mm - $500 mm 54% Source: Dealogic. Excludes SPACs, CLEFs, and offerings < US $150 mm. 22

20 4. Peru Capital Markets 23

21 Peru Equity Market Outlook Index = 100 in January 4 th, 2005 Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 LSE Performance Trend IGBVL: General Index of the Lima Stock Exchange ISBVL: Selective Index of the Lima Stock Exchange Source: LSE. January 4 th, 2005 October 25 th, 2013 Period. IGBVL Index ISBVL Index Market Capitalization by Sector Sector Growth Trend 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 7% 11% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 9% 58% 47% 37% 53% 56% 58% 54% 56% 14% 11% 8% 9% 7% 8% 7% 6% 10% 17% 13% 14% 14% 15% 19% 21% 15% 10% 13% 14% 12% 13% 14% 17% Sep-13 Financial Diversified Industrial Mining Public Services Other -39% -10% -14% -7% -6% -7% 1% 10% 24% 33% 57% % YTD-13 Financial Diversified Industrial Mining Public Services Other 25 Source: LSE as of September 30 th, 2013.

22 Peru Equity Market Outlook (cont d) Average Daily Negotiation (in US$mm) Liquidity Evolution Average Daily # of Operations (in thousands) Sep ADN in Equity ADN in Debt Instruments ADN in Other Instruments ADO in Equity (Right Scale) Source: LSE. 26

23 Investors Base Breackdown by Equity Holdings (Sep-2013) Breackdown by Type of Investor Type (Sep-2013) Nonresident 47% Institut. 33% Non- Institut. 67% Resident 53% Source: Lima Stock Exchange As of September 30, 2013 Source: Lima Stock Exchange As of September 30, 2013 (Millions of US$) Main Institutional Investors Pension Funds 1 Mutual Funds 1 Insurance Companies 2 Government Funds 3 Portfolio 35,286 5,952 7,655 N.D. Appetite for Equity High High Mid Low Equity Portfolio Size 7, n.a. Inv. Limit in Equity % % 30% n.a. (1) As of September (2) As of July 31, 2013 (3) Citi estimations 27

24 Peruvian Pension Fund & Insurance Companies Portfolios Peruvian Pension Fund Portfolios (US$mm) 37,251 35,286 9, % 14, % 20,371 15, % 36.7% 24, % 31,177 30, % 29.8% 21.8% 21, Sep 2013 Peruvian Insurance Company Portfolios (US$mm) 2,619 2,981 3, % 8.1% 8.6% ST Debt LT Debt Equity 3,757 4, % 7.8% 5,477 5, % 8.2% 7,190 7, % 8.5% Jul 2013 Source: LSE, SBS & SMV as of September Cash & Deposits Debt Equity Other

25 Recommendations Offering Structure Bookbuilding vs. Auction Support/test revised framework for accredited investors New fast track regulation only to accredited investors Aftermarket Gray Market working well Overallotment Research Coverage Report Publishing Guidelines (Positive initiative to reduce transactional costs - e.g. Lima stock exchange fee) 31

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