Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region"

Transcription

1 Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region Ministry of Finance Cairo October 25, 2011 Andreas Bauer Division i i Chief, t International Monetary Fund

2 Key points: The global outlook has worsened, and downside risks have increased For MENA oil importers, 2012 outlook is difficult, with strains on macroeconomic stability For the MENA region, reforms are needed now to support inclusive growth and job creation in the medium term 2 Global outlook

3 Global outlook has weakened 1.0 Revisions to GDP growth (Percentage point change; June 2011 WEO to September 2011 WEO) U.S. Euro area MENA Dev. Asia Latin America Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September Global outlook

4 Equity markets have fallen, financial stability risks have increased Equity markets (Index; 2007=100; national currency) Government bond spreads (Two-year yield spreads over German bunds; basis points) Spain Italy Belgium France July 21, DJ EURO STOXX S&P Asia Latin America Oct May 10, Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September Global outlook

5 Capital flows to EM have turned negative Bond fund flows to emerging g markets (Billions of U.S. dollars, weekly flows) Equity fund flows to emerging markets (Billions of U.S. dollars, weekly flows) QE2 (Nov. 3) EMEA LatAm QE2 (Nov. 3) Asia excl. Japan Global Total Greece crisis Ireland crisis -1.0 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Aug-11 Greece crisis Ireland crisis Jan-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 May-11 Aug Source: EPFR Global. 5 Global outlook

6 Commodity prices remain high Global commodity price developments (Price indices; 2007=100) Oil price prospects (U.S. dollars a barrel) Wheat Food 160 Metals Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. Sources: Bloomberg; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Derived from prices of futures options on October 17, Global outlook

7 Downside risks have increased Downside risks: Euro area crisis Advanced economy sovereign risks Escalating global financial volatility Prospects for world GDP growth (Annual percent change) 90% confidence interval (Sep 2011 WEO) Oil supply concerns (risk of higher h oil 4 prices) % confidence interval (Apr 2011 WEO) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook. 7 Global outlook

8 Key points: The global outlook has worsened, and downside risks have increased For MENA oil importers, 2012 outlook is difficult, with strains on macroeconomic stability For the MENA region, reforms are needed d now to support inclusive growth and job creation in the medium term 8 MENA oil importers

9 MENA oil importers 9

10 Challenges ahead Advancing social cohesion with macroeconomic stability 10 MENA oil importers

11 Uncertainty weighing on activity 8 7 Real GDP Growth (Annual percent change) Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 11 MENA oil importers

12 Growth forecasts have been revised downward 6 Real GDP growth (Annual percent change) Oct 2010 REO 2 Apr 2011 REO 1 Oct 2011 REO Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 12 MENA oil importers

13 High fuel prices and declining tourism add to external pressures Oil imports (Percent of GDP, ) Tourism Arrivals (Dec 2010 May 2011, percent change over same period of previous year) Egypt Tunisia Syria Lebanon Jordan Morocco Sources: National authorities; World Tourism Organization (UNWTO); and IMF staff calculations. 13 MENA oil importers

14 External financing constrained, more costly International issuance of bonds, equity, and loans (Billions of U.S. dollars) Credit default swap spreads (Basis points, Jan 1 - Oct 14, 2011) Bonds 475 Equity 425 Loans 375 Tunisia protests S&P downgrade of the U.S H1 Sources: Bloomberg; Dealogic; and Markit Egypt Lebanon Morocco MSCI EM 75 Jan Apr Jul Oct 14 MENA oil importers

15 The 2012 fiscal outlook has worsened 8 Overall fiscal deficit (Percent of GDP) Oct 2010 REO 7 Apr 2011 REO Oct 2011 REO Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 15 MENA oil importers

16 Subsidies contributing to deteriorating fiscal positions 6 Government expenditures and fiscal balances (Percent of GDP, 2011 versus 2010) Subsidies and transfers Fiscal balance % -4 EGY JOR LBN MAR SYR TUN Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. l 16 MENA oil importers

17 Energy subsidies mostly benefit the wealthy Share of benefits from energy subsidies (Share of total) Egypt Jordan¹ Mauritania 7% 1% 34% 13% 16% 41% 12% 3% 10% 21% 17% 65% 20% 17% 23% Bottom quintile 3rd quintile 5th quintile 2nd quintile 4th quintile Sources: National authorities; IMF staff calculations based on information in the 2008 household survey for Jordan and Mauritania, and World Bank PSIA (2005) for Egypt. ¹For Jordan, the distribution of gains accounts for both the direct and indirect effect of price subsidies. The latter refers to the impact of energy price subsidies on the price of other consumed goods and services that use energy in their production and distribution. 17 MENA oil importers

18 The fiscal space to respond to challenges is limited Fiscal deficit (excluding grants) (Percent of GDP, 2011) Total public debt (Percent of GDP, 2011) Jordan Lebanon Syria Egypt Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Morocco Tunisia Tunisia Syria Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. 18 MENA oil importers

19 Key points: The global outlook has worsened, and downside risks have increased For MENA oil importers, 2012 outlook is difficult, with strains on macroeconomic stability For the MENA region, reforms are needed d now to support inclusive growth and job creation in the medium term 19 MENA region

20 Short-term policy challenges 20 MENA region

21 Opportunity to develop a medium-term policy agenda for shared prosperity Fiscal policy: Establish a medium-term macroeconomic framework Better target universal subsidies Unwind tax breaks and expenditures Socially Inclusive Growth Monetary policy: Vigilance to second-round effects Expand policy toolkit in the medium term Labor Markets Access to Government Services Access to Financial Services Streamline product and labor market regulations Reform education systems to enhance skill formation Narrow gap between laws and their execution Create a level playing field Improve corporate governance and disclosure Develop financial market infrastructure 21 MENA region

22 For an online version of the presentation, please visit: 22

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Regional Economic Outlook Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Lebanon Egypt Syria Iraq Iran Jordan Saudi Kuwait Arabia Bahrain Afghanistan Pakistan Mauritania Sudan Djibouti Qatar Yemen Oman United Arab Emirates

More information

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook. November 12, 2013

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook. November 12, 2013 Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook November 12, 213 Outline Global Outlook MENAP: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks Oil Exporters Oil Importers Key Takeaways 2 Global Outlook

More information

Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011

Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook October 211 Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Kazakhstan Georgia Uzbekistan Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Overview Global outlook (CCA)

More information

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions

Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Oil, Conflicts, and Transitions May 5, 2015 Agenda Global Environment MENAP Oil Exporters MENAP Oil Importers Global growth remains moderate and uneven

More information

Export Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building

Export Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building Export Group Meeting on the Contribution and Effective Use of External Resources for Development, in Particular for Productive Capacity Building 22-24 February 21 Debt Sustainability and the Implications

More information

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World

Three-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below

More information

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally

More information

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF

International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook. Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Senior Advisor Research Department, IMF IMF Presentation April 3, The recovery is solidifying but it will take some time before it significantly

More information

Recent Recent Developments 0

Recent Recent Developments 0 Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

More information

Global Outlook and Policy Challenges. Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department

Global Outlook and Policy Challenges. Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department Global Outlook and Policy Challenges Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department February, 29 Global Outlook Has Deteriorated, but Modest Turnaround Anticipated with Policy Stimulus 1 WEO

More information

SEPTEMBER Overview

SEPTEMBER Overview Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).

More information

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012 PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.

More information

THE MENA REGION THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CONFLICTS

THE MENA REGION THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CONFLICTS I N T E R N AT I O N A L M O N E TA R Y F U N D Middle East and Central Asia Department THE MENA REGION THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CONFLICTS November 29, 216 The MENA region is exposed to violent conflicts

More information

MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist

MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Risks to the Recovery Persist The growth recovery in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) oil-importing countries is set to continue in 18, lifted

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments The overall macroeconomic environment remains very challenging for the European insurance and pension sector. The yields have been further compressed and are substantially below the

More information

UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference. Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective

UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference. Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective UNCTAD s Seventh Debt Management Conference 9-11 November 2009 Addressing Debt Vulnerabilities: Role of Debt Strategies and Debt Managers A Policy Perspective by Mr. Udaibir S. Das Monetary and Capital

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

PRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 2012

PRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 2012 PRESS CONFERENCE 2 November 212 3Q 212 Fund s market value Quarterly numbers, 3 September 212. Billions of kroner 4 3 5 Asset class Value Percentage fund Equities 2 247 6.3% 3 723 4 3 5 3 Fixed Income

More information

Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators

Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Policy Trade-offs May for 20, Unprecedented 2009 - Maison Times: Confronting de l Amérique the Global Crisis Latine, America, ParisIADB,

More information

ECB LTRO Dec Greece program

ECB LTRO Dec Greece program International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily

More information

Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya

Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya Presentation to Chief Executive Officers of Commercial and Microfinance Banks Dr. Patrick Njoroge Governor, Central Bank of Kenya August 6, 2015 Outline 1. The Information basis for the MPC meeting 2.

More information

Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook. May 2, 2018

Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook. May 2, 2018 1 Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook May, 18 Outline Outlook What Next? The Way Forward Takeaways Outlook: From Global to Regional 3 The broad-based global recovery continues Global

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Assuring growth over the medium term Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group January 213 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive More than 4 years after

More information

Inflation Report. July September 2012

Inflation Report. July September 2012 July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

The State of the World s Macroeconomy

The State of the World s Macroeconomy The State of the World s Macroeconomy Marcelo Giugale Senior Director Global Practice for Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Washington DC, December 3 rd 2014 Content 1. What s Happening? Growing Concerns

More information

Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis

Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis by Salvador Barrios, Per Iversen, Magdalena Lewandowska, Ralph Setzer DG ECFIN, European Commission - This paper does

More information

Egypt Resilience and Potential

Egypt Resilience and Potential Egypt Resilience and Potential INTERNATIONAL BANKING FORUM 2011 Brescia, 16-17 June 2011 Issa, Ahmed Head of Financial Institutions Group Commercial International Bank Agenda o January 25 th February 11

More information

Executive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011

Executive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011 Executive Board Meeting September Global economic growth GDP growth. Four-quarter change. Q Q - US Euro area Emerging economies¹) Emerging Asian economies¹) - - - 8 ) GDP-weighted (PPP) Sources: IMF, Thomson

More information

MENAP Regional Economic Outlook. May 2, 2017

MENAP Regional Economic Outlook. May 2, 2017 1 MENAP Regional Economic Outlook May 2, 217 2 Roadmap The Global Context The Outlook for the Region Key Themes What the IMF is doing to help Global growth is gaining momentum World U.S. Euro Area Emerging

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors

More information

Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects Global Economic Prospects Slow and halting progress Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group October, 22, 2012 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive May/June financial turmoil

More information

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition

Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition Global Economic Prospects: Update Global Recovery in Transition April 2015 M. Ayhan Kose 1 Global Prospects: Three Questions 1. How have global economic conditions changed since December? Broadly as expected;

More information

Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook

Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook Juha Kähkönen International Monetary Fund November 212 Overview Global outlook (CCA) outlook and risks CCA macroeconomic policies CCA structural challenges 2 The global recovery has weakened 6 Global Manufacturing

More information

An Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department

An Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund November 1, 2018 An Uneven Recovery Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department I. Key Messages II. Global Crosscurrents III.

More information

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute

Economic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

Overcoming the crisis

Overcoming the crisis Princeton, Oct 24 th, 2011 Overcoming the crisis backwards induction approach: 1. Diagnosis how did we get there? Run-up phase Crisis phase 2. Give long-run perspective Banking landscape (ESBies, European

More information

MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th November, 2016

MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER Governor s Presentation to the Media. 16 th November, 2016 1 MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE STATEMENT FOR THIRD QUARTER 2016 Governor s Presentation to the Media 16 th November, 2016 INTRODUCTION 2 This presentation is structured as follows: 1. Decision of the Monetary

More information

1.1. Low yield environment

1.1. Low yield environment 1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public

More information

Euro-QE at the end of the road for now

Euro-QE at the end of the road for now Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment

More information

Economic outlook for Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013

Economic outlook for Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013 Economic outlook for 2013 2015 Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013 1 Positive signals from the international economy 12.12.2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen

More information

Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals

Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals For professional use only Not for Public distribution Emerging Market Debt attractive yield with solid fundamentals November 2012 Kevin Daly, Senior Portfolio Manager EMD Aberdeen Asset Management Table

More information

Monthly Economic and Financial Developments December 2008

Monthly Economic and Financial Developments December 2008 Release Date: 02 February 2009 Monthly Economic and Financial Developments December 2008 In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central

More information

Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013

Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013 Citi Equity Capital Markets October 29, 2013 Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013 1 1. Global Markets 2 Price Performance (%) GDP Growth (%) Global Environment at Inflection Point Developed

More information

Economic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department

Economic recovery and employment in the EU. Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Economic recovery and employment in the EU Raymond Torres, Director, ILO Research Department Outline of presentation I. Situation in the EU versus Japan and the US II. Role of macroeconomic policies and

More information

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April

World Economic Outlook. Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April World Economic Outlook Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven April 214 1 April 214 WEO: Key Messages Global growth strengthened in 213H2, will accelerate further in 214-1 Advanced economies are providing

More information

MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB. Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015

MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB. Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015 MNI Light At The End of The Tunnel? Euro Area Economy And the ECB Johanna Treeck, Senior ECB Correspondent, September 2015 MNI Deutsche Börse Group 1 Market Data + Services We advance markets Service lines

More information

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking

More information

World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook World Economic Outlook Marco E. Terrones Assistant to the Director Research Department, IMF May 2012 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. March 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global

More information

Regional Economic Outlook. May 2015

Regional Economic Outlook. May 2015 Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia May 215 Outline Global Environment CCA Outlook, Risks, and Policies 2 Global growth remains moderate and uneven World U.S. Euro Area Emerging markets

More information

2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch

2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch 2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some

More information

2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook

2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook 211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer

More information

Regional Economic Outlook

Regional Economic Outlook Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Azim Sadikov International Monetary Fund Resident Representative November 6, 2013 Outline Global Outlook CCA: Recent Developments, Outlook, and Risks

More information

Monthly Report. September ,36

Monthly Report. September ,36 NAV SEPTEMBER 2017 1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS SINCE INCEPTION Global Allocation Fund* 107,92 6,19% 2,36% 17,61% 24,0 131,95% 184,39% 350.000 Performance of 100.000 March 31, 2006 to September 30, 2017 300.000

More information

Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006

Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April 2006 Release Date: 30 May Monthly Economic and Financial Developments April In an effort to provide the public with more frequent information on its economic surveillance activities, the Central Bank has decided

More information

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments

More information

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017

EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political

More information

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003 OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican

More information

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty

More information

Potential Gains from the Reform Package

Potential Gains from the Reform Package Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms

More information

Financial Stability Review November Press Briefing Luis de Guindos 29 November 2018

Financial Stability Review November Press Briefing Luis de Guindos 29 November 2018 Financial Stability Review November 218 Press Briefing Luis de Guindos 29 November 218 Risk assessment The financial stability environment has become more challenging Four key risks over a two-year horizon

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification

Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification April 2017 Richard Batty Fund Manager, Multi Asset This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use. Please

More information

The Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus

The Cyprus Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth. Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Cyprus The Economy: from Recovery to Sustainable Growth Vincenzo Guzzo Resident Representative in Growth momentum remains strong 18 : Real GDP ( billion) 1 Deviation from Pre-Crisis Level and Trend (Percent)

More information

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond

More information

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016

Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the

More information

Theta Capital Management. Distressed Investing - Deep value opportunities through the cycle

Theta Capital Management. Distressed Investing - Deep value opportunities through the cycle Theta Capital Management Distressed Investing - Deep value opportunities through the cycle VBA Wouter ten Brinke 19 May 2010 2 Theta Capital Management Products Product Investment style Target return Target

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. May 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary

More information

MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2

MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight

More information

Latin America: the shadow of China

Latin America: the shadow of China Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global

More information

Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars.

Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. Please scroll to find the 2018 and 2019 global fund holiday calendars. 2018 Exchange-Traded fund holiday Vanguard Ireland-domiciled ETFs Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1 2 5 12 15 25 9 12 14 15 16 19 28 20 29

More information

Monthly Economic Report

Monthly Economic Report Monthly Economic Report April 19, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. All Rights Reserved. 1. The Japanese Economy: the business conditions DI deteriorated; FY2018 fixed investment plans were

More information

Poland s Economic Prospects

Poland s Economic Prospects Poland s Economic Prospects Unicredit Conference Warsaw, June 8, 11 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe Recovery is driven by domestic demand Contributions to Real

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,

More information

Euro-QE at the end of the road for now

Euro-QE at the end of the road for now Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.9 2.6 2.1 3.16 1.15 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment

More information

Italy s Eurozone Trap

Italy s Eurozone Trap Italy s Eurozone Trap Ashoka Mody Based on EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts, New York: Oxford University Press, June 2018. Italy needed and needs the crutch of a depreciating currency to offset its abysmal

More information

The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank

The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the European

More information

Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011

Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011 Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced

More information

The Mexican Economy: Now and in the Future

The Mexican Economy: Now and in the Future Manuel Sánchez BBVA Investor conference "LATAM: Growth at your fingertips" Milan, Italy, May 10 2012 Index 1 Structural strengths 2 Recent developments and outlook 3 Long term opportunities 4 Consolidation

More information

The ECB's drive to build purchased assets

The ECB's drive to build purchased assets Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment

More information

The Greek Bond Market in 2007

The Greek Bond Market in 2007 The Greek Bond Market in 2007 15 YEAR BENCHMARK ISSUE MAY 2007 MARKET ANALYSIS +30 210 326 2070, marketanalysis@alpha.gr Financial Markets Group Planning Department Please refer to important Disclaimer

More information

The ECB's drive to build purchased assets

The ECB's drive to build purchased assets Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment

More information

MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa

MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa MFW4A: The impact of the global financial crisis on funding needs and borrowing strategies in Africa Stefan Nalletamby, Coordinator This presentation covers four sections 1. Impact of the financial crisis

More information

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP

More information

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS Box 2 RECENT WIDENING IN EURO AREA SOVEREIGN BOND YIELD SPREADS This box looks at recent in euro area countries sovereign bond yield spreads and the potential roles played by credit and liquidity risk.

More information

Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico

Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Recent Economic Developments and Monetary Policy in Mexico Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Northeast Chapter New York City, 2 June 2017

More information

Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014

Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014 Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group September 21 Nigeria Overview A rebasing of GDP in 213 has made Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa with the largest population; the economy is growing rapidly but remains

More information

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015 Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by

More information

EUROZONE BANKS AND CAPITAL FLOW REVERSAL

EUROZONE BANKS AND CAPITAL FLOW REVERSAL EUROZONE BANKS AND CAPITAL FLOW REVERSAL Ashoka Mody Research Department International Monetary Fund European Crisis: Historical Parallels and Economic Lessons Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy

More information

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2017 Andreas Bauer Sr Resident Representative @imf_delhi World Economic Outlook The big picture Global activity picked up further in 2017H1 the outlook is now for higher

More information

European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility

European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility A client posed the question a few years ago during one of the many rolling sovereign credit crises then roiling the Eurozone as to when the whole thing

More information

Latin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017

Latin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017 Latin America Outlook 2nd QUARTER Latin America Outlook 2Q17 Main messages 1. Global growth keeps increasing, and uncertainty about US policies starts to fade. Nevertheless, global risks remain. 2. The

More information

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox

CECIMO Statistical Toolbox European Association of the Machine Tool Industries where manufacturing begins Inside this edition... 0 Executive Summary 1 Machine Tool Orders 1.1 Orders per Country 1.2 Peter Meier s Forecast CECIMO

More information

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD

Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are

More information

2. MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Safeguarding the Growth Recovery Amid Rising Risks

2. MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Safeguarding the Growth Recovery Amid Rising Risks . MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Safeguarding the Growth Recovery Amid Rising Risks Growth among oil-importing countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region is expected

More information