Financial Analysts Meeting. 4 th November 2010

Transcription

1 Financial Analysts Meeting 4 th November

2 EH world macro economic scenario -2011

3 World economy has registered a clear rebound World GDP rebounded by +5,8% between Q1- and Q2-. with a strong upturn of world industrial production (+21% since Q1-) and world trade (+14%) World GDP by quarters in real terms (base 100: january 2000) world industrial production world trade of merchandise Sources: COE-Rexecode, Euler Hermes Monthly data, base 100:2000 Sources: CPB, Euler Hermes % above pre crisis level (Q2-2008) Both back around pre crisis levels 3 EH world macro economic scenario

4 But this rebound was boosted by temporary support factors and is strongly uneven The upturn was far less pronounced in the developed countries (Asia is the only region where the crisis has been erased) Monthly data, by volume 2000 = 100 WORLD Industrial output Trade Advanced economies (*) Julyl months change 6.1% 7.9% Compared to July % -1.1% Powerful lift-off factors: monetary expansion massive fiscal stimulus (especially US and China) gradual ending of a largescale destocking (mainly OECD) all loosing momentum without strong new factors in place, especially in Europe Industrial output Trade % 3.4% -7.6% -4.6% Emerging countries Industrial output Trade Asia Industrial output Trade % 13.2% 15.9% 19.1% 12.0% 3.0% 21.6% 9.6% Limiting factors: needs for deleveraging wealth effects high unemployment Central and Eastern Europe Industrial output Trade % 1.6% -4.5% -13.6% unsustainable high budget deficits bank s capacity to increase lending Latin America Industrial output Trade % 8.5% -1.5% -1.0% All improving (or expected to improve) too slowly (*) OECD excluding Turkey, Mexico, South Korea and countries in Central Europe Sources: CPB, Euler Hermes 4 EH world macro economic scenario

5 The pace of the recovery has already started to slow Growth activity peaked in winter -10 and positive expectations are easing since Q1-8% 3 months change over the precedent 3 months (in%) w orld PMI index - end of quarter monthly data w orld expectations IFO index - quarterly data (r) 6% % 2% 0% July th month of decline in August -2% -4% -6% -8% world industrial output world imports world exports d quarter of decline in Q % % -14% Sources : CPB, Euler Hermes Sources : Markit, IFO, IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes 2 World GDP growth already decelerated from +6% qtr/qtr in Q4-09 to +3.5% in Q EH world macro economic scenario

6 Central scenario : a moderate global recovery, with strong regional differences GDP growth (in %) 2008 USA World trade to slow from +12% in to +8% in 2011, in line with GDP Japan World volume of trade grow th (left axis) World real GDP grow th (right axis) Eurozone Germany % 12% 12% 10% 12% 5% 4% France Italy UK -0.1 Eastern Europe 4.3 Asia (exc. Japan) 6.7 China % 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% 5% 6% 3% 5% 8% 9% 7% % % 8% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% Latin America % -12% -2% Brazil % -3% WORLD Sources : IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes Sources : IHS Global Insight, Euler Hermes 6 EH world macro economic scenario

7 Insolvencies to remain at a high level in -11 despite a decrease in some countries (*) Still significant levels of insolvencies (*) Global Index Americas Asia-Pacific Northern Europe Mediterr. countries Euro zone A modest fall in sight, especially in Europe (*) EH Indice Global des Défaillances Global Insolvency Index (**) Basis, 2000 = Sources: national statistics, Euler Hermes (*) End of May forecasts to be update in November (**) Weighed at 2008 GDP per country at current exchange rates 7 EH world macro economic scenario

8 EH Group Q3 Commercial & Risk Overview

9 Credit Insurance portfolio evolution (in M ) Quarterly commercial figures New Business Q Q , Q Q Lost Premiums ,6 Rate Variation Q Q Organic Q Q Variation

10 Credit Insurance portfolio evolution (in M ) Quarterly commercial figures Organic Variation Q Q Volume Variation Q Q Other Variations Q Q Total Variations Q Q

11 Efficient exposure monitoring in allowed to push loss ratio back to 2007 levels Exposure Net Claims Ratio peeked after 8 Q of increase in Q2 09 Billion Grades 1-5 Grades 6-10 total 112,9% 31/ ,3% 31/ ,8% 77,1% 71,8% 30/ ,3% 58,1% 31/ ,0% 27,3% 30/ Q3 07 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q

12 Claims files evolution NB OF CLAIMS FILES EH GROUP * * : all BUs except: AU, NZ, SLO, CZ and Latin America * : All BUs janv-09 févr-09 mars-09 avr-09 mai-09 juin-09 juil-09 août-09 sept-09 oct-09 nov-09 déc-09 janv-10 févr-10 mars-10 avr-10 mai-10 juin-10 juil-10 août-10 sept-10 CI Nb of claims >1m Q2= 24 Q3=28 Q4=17 Q1=9 Q2=8 Q3=9 12

13 Global Acceptance Rate (total amount granted to policyholders / total amount requested by policyholders) 80.00% 75.34% 75.00% 71.35% 70.00% 65.00% 54.54% 60.00% 55.00% 50.00% Jan- 08 Feb- 08 Mar- 08 Apr- 08 May- 08 Jun- 08 Jul- 08 Aug- 08 Sep- 08 Oct- 08 Nov- 08 Dec- 08 Jan- 09 Feb- 09 Mar- 09 Apr- 09 May- 09 Jun- 09 Jul- 09 Aug- 09 Sep- 09 Oct- 09 Nov- 09 Dec- 09 Jan- 10 Feb- 10 Mar- 10 Apr- 10 May- 10 Jun- 10 Jul- 10 Aug- 10 Sep

14 Gross exposure evolution Grade December % June % September % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % % % Grade % 3 0.0% 2 0.0% Total % % % +5% +2% 14

15 EH Group Q3

16 Quarterly Results overview (in M ) Q Q Total Revenues % m Gross Technical Result Net Technical Result m , Operating Profit Net income/loss

17 Revenues up by 5.8% versus Q3 (in M ) 580 Turnover Evolution in million of euros Q Q Earned Premium Service Fees COLLECTION Q Q Q Q All historical figures as published. 17

18 Gross Earned Premium (in M ) Area contribution before inter-region eliminations Gross Earned Combined Premiumratio Δ10/09 Gross earned premiums (m ) (in M ) France % +2.79% Germany/Austria/ Switzerland % Northern Europe % Mediterranean Countries % Americas % Asia Pacific % Captive & Others % Inter Region Eliminations % Total % 18

19 Gross Technical Result (in M ) Gross technical result (HB3) m Gross technical result drivers Q 4Q 1.4 Gross Technical Result 09 Premiums Claims Δ 10/09 Costs Gross Technical Result 10 19

20 Gross combined ratio down to 53.5% in Q3 Combined Ratio (1) Combined ratio (1) France 73.4% 54.4% 43.6% pts Germany/Austria/ Switzerland 84.4% 68.5% 59.4% Northern Europe 125.0% 78.7% 36.9% Mediterranean Countries 98.1% 71.0% 41.5% Americas 109.6% 43.5% 44.5% Loss ratio Asia Pacific 145.1% 40.9% 51.3% 24.7 Total Group 99.7% 60.7% 53.5% (1) Including service margin Exp. ratio Q 4Q

21 France Area contribution before inter-region eliminations 7-quarter turnover overview Gross Combined Ratio % % 88.3% 73.4% 49.5% 63.3% 54.4% 43.6% 4Q 4Q 4Q Gross Run-off (in M ) Gross Technical Result Q 4Q 21

22 Germany/Austria/Switzerland Area contribution before inter-region eliminations 7-quarter turnover overview Gross Combined Ratio % % 97.9% 84.4% 133.1% 90.9% 68.5% 59.4% 4Q 4Q Gross Run-off (in M ) Gross Technical Result Q 4Q 22

23 Northern Europe Area contribution before inter-region eliminations 7-quarter turnover overview Gross Combined Ratio +1.2% % 135.9% 125.0% 119.5% 91.2% 78.7% 36.9% 4Q 4Q Gross Run-off (in M ) Gross Technical Result Q 4Q 23

24 Southern Europe Area contribution before inter-region eliminations 7-quarter turnover overview Gross Combined Ratio -12.2% % 84.0% 98.1% 56.6% 85.9% 71.0% 41.5% 4Q 4Q Gross Run-off (in M ) Gross Technical Result Q 4Q 24

25 Americas (in millions of US$) Area contribution before inter-region eliminations 7-quarter turnover overview Gross Combined Ratio % % 130.9% 109.6% 74.5% 85.4% 43.5% 44.5% 4Q 4Q Gross Run-off (in M$) Gross Technical Result Q 4Q 25

26 Asia Pacific Area contribution before inter-region eliminations 7-quarter turnover overview Gross Combined Ratio % % 145.1% 102.9% -48.5% 74.0% 40.9% 51.3% 4Q 4Q Gross Run-off (in M ) Gross Technical Result Q 4Q 26

27 Net Technical Result recovery mainly linked to claims decrease (in M ) Net technical result (HB3) m Net technical result drivers Q 4Q 2008 Net Technical Result 09 Premiums Claims Δ 10/09 Costs Net Technical Result 10 27

28 Q3 Net Financial income evolution Actual Actual In thousand of euros Q3 Q3 Variation in amount Variation in % Income from investment property % Income from securities % Income from securities-bonds % Income from securities-equities % Other financial income % Income from other financial investments % Other financial income % Investments income % Investment expenses % Net Foreign Exchange result % Net gains and losses on sales of investments less impairment and amortisation % Net financial income (excluding financing expense) % Financing expenses % Financial Result % 28

29 Key Figures Q3 Profit & Loss (part 1) Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros Q3 Q3 Variation in amount Variation in % Gross earned premiums % Gross Claims % Gross insurance expenses % Gross technical result from insurance activities Gross loss ratio 24,7% 72,9% Gross cost ratio 30,7% 30,2% Gross combined ratio (1) 55,4% 103,1% Service revenues % Service expenses % Service margin % Gross technical result Reinsurance result Net technical result Net loss ratio 27,3% 77,1% -49,9% Net cost ratio 24,6% 26,2% -1,6% Net combined ratio (2) 51,9% 103,3% -51,5% (1) Excluding service margin (2) Including service margin 29

30 Key Figures Q3 Profit & Loss (part 2) Actual Actual In thousand of euros Q3 Q3 Variation in amount Technical result Financial income net of expenses Ordinary Operating Income Other non ordinary operating income and expense Financing expenses Equity method Corporation tax Minority interest Consolidated net income Tax rate 28,6% 90,4% 30

31 EH Group Results as at end of September

32 Key Figures 9M 9M results positively impacted by low claims frequency and absence of severity claims 426 M Gross Technical Result in 9M (-50 M in 9M ) mainly driven by lower claims (-51% towards 9M )! Net Combined Ratio down to 68.8% (vs % in 9M ) mainly driven by historical low loss ratio of 40.8% Operating Profit of 359 M (vs. 48 M in 9M ) Net income of 256 M (vs. 1 M in 9M ) 32

33 Key figures YTD Profit & Loss (part 1) Actual YTD Actual YTD In million of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Gross earned premiums % Gross Claims % Gross insurance expenses % Gross technical result from insurance activities Gross loss ratio 38,1% 78,2% -40,1% Gross cost ratio 30,3% 29,5% 0,8% Gross combined ratio (1) 68% 108% -39% Service revenues % Service expenses % Service margin % Gross technical result Reinsurance result Net technical result Net loss ratio 40,8% 85,0% -44,2% Net cost ratio 28,1% 22,4% 5,7% Net combined ratio (2) 68,8% 107,4% -107,4% (1) Excluding service margin (2) Including service margin 33

34 YTD Net earned premium evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Gross earned premiums % Ceded premiums % Net earned premiums % Cession rate -36% -33% Cession rate without XoL premium -34% -31% (assumed XOL=2,6% retention in ) (assumed XOL=2,5% retention in ) 34

35 YTD Gross Claims Costs evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variatio n in % Gross claims costs current attachement years % Gross claims costs previous attachement years % Gross Claims costs % Gross Claims ratio current attachement year -56,6% -79,4% Gross Claims ratio attachement previous year 18,5% 1,3% Gross Claims ratio -38,1% -78,2% Gross earned premiums % 35

36 YTD Gross Loss CY evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Germany (Area) % France % Northern Europe % Med. Countries & Africa % Americas % Asia & Pacific % Inter Region Eliminations % Others (incl. Captive) % Total Gross claims costs CY % Germany (Area) -52% -77% France -53% -66% Northern Europe -60% -90% Med. Countries & Africa -71% -82% Americas -54% -57% Asia & Pacific -23% -164% Gross Claims ratio CY -57% -79% 36

37 YTD Gross Run-Offs evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Germany (Area) % France % Northern Europe % Med. Countries & Africa % Americas % Asia & Pacific % Others (incl. Captive & Inter Region Eliminations) % Total Gross claims costs PY % Med. Countries & Africa France Northern Europe Americas Germany (Area) Asia & Pacific Others (incl. Captive & Inter Region Eliminations) Total Group M 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 37

38 YTD Reinsurance result evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Outward premium % Outward rebates % Total Ceded Premium % Outward claims cost CY % Outward Run off % Total Ceded Claims % Outward commission % Outward other % Total Ceded Costs % Reinsurance Result % Reinsurance Commission rate 30% 30% 38

39 YTD Net Claims Costs evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Gross claims costs CY % Ceded claims costs CY % Net claim costs CY % Cession rate CY 29% 29% 0% Gross claims costs PY % Ceded claims costs PY % Net claims costs PY % Cession rate PY 24% 154% -129% Net Claims costs % Net Claims ratio CY -62,6% -84,0% Net Claims ratio PY 21,8% -1,0% Net Claims ratio -40,8% -85,0% 39

40 EH Group Net Claims Ratio YTD evolution 100,0% 80,0% 60,0% Net Loss ratio current year Net Run off Net Loss ratio 58,8% 57,9% 55,6% 57,4% 65,2% 62,9% 62,1% 59,9% 66,6% 62,8% 88,4% 85,4% 84,6% 86,0% 83,8% 78,1% 84,0% 85,0% 80,7% 82,1% 70,0% 64,7% 58,1% 62,6% 40,0% 48,5% 45,8% 44,0% 48,1% 47,7% 40,8% 20,0% 0,0% -20,0% -10,3% -12,1% -11,6% -9,3% -2,3% -2,2% -3,8% -7,3% -0,8% 2,4% 1,0% 1,4% -11,9% -17,0% -21,8% -40,0% YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q YTD Q1 YTD Q2 YTD Q3 YTD Q4 YTD Q1 YTD Q2 YTD Q3 40

41 YTD Net Expenses evolution Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Total recurrent expenses % Total non recurrent expenses % Total gross expenses % of which non technical expenses % Total gross technical expenses % Service fees % Expenses net of fees % Gross earned premium % Reinsurance commission % Ceded premiums % Net technical expenses % Net premium % Gross technical expense ratio 28,9% 25,1% Net technical expense ratio 28,1% 22,4% 41

42 YTD Net Financial income evolution In thousand of euros Actual YTD Actual YTD SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Income from investment property % Income from securities % Income from securities-bonds % Income from securities-equities % Other financial income % Income from other financial investments % Other financial income % Investments income % Investment expenses % Net Foreign Exchange result % Net gains and losses on sales of investments less impairment and amortisation % Net financial income (excluding financing expense) % Financing expenses % Financial Result % 42

43 YTD Net Financial Portfolio evolution Financial investments Classification by investment category (in thousands of euros).9.12 Amortized cost Revaluation reserve Fair value Amortized cost Revaluation reserve Fair value - Equities: Bonds: Loans and other investments Total Financial investments Building third party use Cash Total

44 Key figures YTD Profit & Loss (part 2) Actual YTD Actual YTD In thousand of euros SEP SEP Variation in amount Variation in % Technical result % Financial income net of expenses % Ordinary Operating Income % Other non ordinary operating income and expense % Financing expenses % Equity method % Corporation tax % Minority interest % Consolidated net income % Tax rate 26,3% 89,7% 44