The External Environment for Developing Countries
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1 d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
2 10 China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month) 5 World China 0-5 USA Germany -10 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.
3 50 Cross border bank flows to developing countries continue meagre billions USD, 3-month moving average 40 Syndicated lending Bonds Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Source: Loanware and Bondware.
4 Industrial countries
5 Employment losses ease with potential positive effects on spending retail volume growth (y/y) [L]; change in employment (3mma) [R] Retail sales [L] Change in employment [R] Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce and Labor. -750
6 U.S. economic activity is stabilzing but bank loan charge-offs surging ISM composite economic activity index [left]; Bank charge-offs (% total C&I loans) [right] ISM composite index [left] C&I charge-offs [right] Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Source: Institute for Supply Management; Federal Reserve Board
7 25.0 U.S. trade developments may offer boost for 2 nd quarter GDP export and import volumes, ch% saar Export volumes Import volumes Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
8 60 40 Japan s trade and production take a sharp leg up over May/June export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar Export volume 20 0 Production Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.
9 Labor markets deteriorate quickly while spending continues to falter unemployment rate (%) [left]; retail sales, ch% yr-on-yr [right] Unemployment rate % [left] Retail sales [right] Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Source: Japan Cabinet Office.
10 2 1 Japan s inflation drops well into negative territory Toyko CPI and corporate goods prices, ch%, y/y Headline CPI Corporate goods prices (PPI) -6 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Source: Bank of Japan.
11 European labor markets continue to weaken, but sentiment up on lower CPI unemployment rate (%) [left]; EC consumer sentiment [right] Unemployment rate % [left] Euro Area consumer sentiment [right] Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Source: EUROSTAT and European Commission. -35
12 Euro Area CPI in negative ground HICP headline and core, ch% y/y and EURIBOR (%) EURIBOR Headline HICP HICP-core Source: Eurostat.
13 Industrial production
14 Deep peak-to-trough declines in industrial production are now being reversed Mexico United Kingdom United States Argentina Malaysia Colombia Brazil Pakistan Bulgaria South Africa Thailand Singapore Korea, Rep. Germany Turkey Italy Slovenia Spain Slovak Republic Japan Hungary Taiwan (China) Peak-totrough decline percent change Percent of contraction reversed Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
15 10 China at the forefront of the global economic recovery industrial production, percent (month-on-month) 5 World China 0-5 USA Germany -10 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.
16 Global manufacturing looking up JPMorgan global PMI summary - Manufacturing Manufacturing Feb Mar Apr May Jun Output New orders Employment Source: JPMorgan. Source: JPMorgan-Chase
17 International trade
18 World export growth appears to be bottoming exports, ch% seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar) Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Source: World Bank data.
19 Global imbalances ease moderately as U.S. deficit and China surplus narrow goods trade balance, U.S. $-bn, seasonally adjusted, annualized China -600 United States ,000-1,200 Jan-02 Dec-02 Nov-03 Oct-04 Sep-05 Aug-06 Jul-07 Jun-08 May-09 Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.
20 Eurozone exports begin to support more moderate declines in production 25 IP and exports, ch% seasonally adjusted annual rates (saar) 5-15 Industrial Production -35 Exports -55 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Source: Eurostat.
21 Oil prices
22 140 $/bbl Oil prices and OECD oil stocks million bbl Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. 2300
23 World Oil Production (mb/d) 55 Non-OPEC Non-OPEC x FSU 35 OPEC 30 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
24 WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX $/bbl Monthly contract prices to Dec 2014* for select dates in Jun 11 Jul Feb Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Source: NYMEX.
25 Non-oil commodity prices
26 (2000=100) 350 Food prices edged higher in June Grains Fats & Oils Beverages Other Food 100 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: DECPG Commodities Group.
27 Metals prices ease following large gains in first-half Copper Nickel Aluminium Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.
28 Freight rates fall on slowdown in bulk trade Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.
29 International Finance
30 Flows slowed in June; first-half volumes halved from a year earlier Gross capital flows to emerging markets $ billion Tot al H1 H2 Total H1 Apr May Jun Total Bonds Banks Equity Lat. America Bonds E. Europe Bonds Asia Bonds Ot hers Source: DECPG Finance Team.
31 Cross border bank flows remain well below the levels seen in previous years billions USD, 3-month moving average Syndicated lending Bonds Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Source: Loanware and Bondware.
32 EM assets rebound from recent corrections MSCI equity index, USD [left]; EM bonds spreads, bps [right] EMBIG spreads [right] MSCI equity index [left] Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Source: Morgan-Stanley and JPMorgan-Chase. 400
33 Currencies
34 Dollar weakens vs yen trading range around $1.40 against euro USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul USD/Euro (inverse) yen/usd Source: Thomson/Datastream. 86
35 Dollar slips vs EM currencies in seconed quarter percentage change (USD per LCU) (%) US NEER Stronger Local Currency Indo rph Ind rpe Brz rei First quarter 2009 Second quarter 2009 Tur lra Cze crn Mex pso Hun frt Rus Rbl Source: Thomson/Datastream.
36 FOCUS Developments in real effective exchange rates
37 Real effective exchange rates depreciate in most of the world s largest economies 130 January 2008 = 100 Japan China USA Euro Area Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.
38 Real effective appreciation for commodity exporters as commodity prices stage a comeback January 2008 = Canada Brazil Australia South Africa Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.
39 REERs bounce off lows of early 2009 in countries exporting capital goods and autos BIS effective exchange rate, broad Indices,January 2008 = Hungary 100 Czech Republic South Korea Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Source: Bank for International Settlements.
40 The External Environment for Developing Countries July 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries March 2008 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
The External Environment for Developing Countries
d Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group
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