Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
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1 Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016
2 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary policy framework 4. Concluding remarks 2
3 China India Indonesia 4,3 4,1 3,9 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,1 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,8 2,5 1/ Emerging countries with a GDP higher than US $ 150 billion. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and BCRP Peru Poland Philippines Taiwan Colombia Malaysia Korea Chile Turkey Thailand Russia Egypt Czech Republic Brazil South Africa Hungary Mexico Qatar Greece UAE Peru s growth in the last decade ranks fourth place among emerging economies 9,1 Average GDP per capita growth: / 6,0 2,0 2,0 1,7 1,4 1,3 1,2 0,1-1,9-4,7 3
4 After the financial crisis, Peru reached an average growth of 5,3 percent, above the LATAM average of 2,6 percent GDP of selected countries ( ) (Index 2007=100) Pre Crisis Period Crisis Period Post Crisis Period Peru Colombia Average GDP Growth Chile Brazil Brazil 2,2 Colombia 4,0 Chile 3,4 110 Mexico Mexico 1,9 Peru 5,3 100 Average LATAM 2, Source: WEO (October 2015) and BCRP. 4
5 Peru s average Inflation is around 3,0 percent Average Inflation: ,8 4,0 4,0 3,6 3,0 2,2 Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru Peru (excludes food and energy) 5 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and BCRP
6 Taiwan Thailand Czech Republic Peru Malaysia China Russia Hungary Philippines Korea United Arab Emirates Qatar Brazil Poland Colombia Chile India Mexico South Africa Turkey Indonesia Egypt* Greece International reserves are equivalent to 32 percent of GDP 82 International Reserves: 2015 (% GDP) * GDP to Egypt as of 2014 Source: IMF and Bloomberg 6
7 Public debt is equivalent to 23,3 percent of GDP Gross public debt: 2015 (% GDP) 197,0 90,0 75,3 69,9 65,3 55,6 52,0 51,1 50,9 48,4 43,5 43,2 40,6 38,5 38,2 35,9 32,1 29,9 26,5 23,3 20,4 18,9 18,1 7 Source: IMF and BCRP
8 The banking system has a low exposure to external liabilities Short-Term External Liabilities of the Banking Sector (% of GDP) 2,0 1,8 1,3 1,2 1,3 0,7 1,0 0,6 0,9 0,8 1, *Up to December
9 Long-Term Corporate Debt Total Long-Term Debt of Nonfinancial Firms (As % of GDP) 1) Firms oriented to exports 6,3 9,9 11,5 2) Firms oriented to domestic markets 5,2 8,4 6,2 4,7 4,
10 The dollarization ratio dropped by more than half since 2005 Dollarization Ratio of Credit to the Private Sector (%) * Up to December 2015
11 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Concluding Remarks 11
12 Growth is expected to recover over the next few years Peruvian Annual GDP Growth (in percentages) 8,5 9,1 8,5 7,5 5,5 4,2 5,0 6,3 6,5 6,0 5,8 4,0 4,8 3,3 2,4 1, * 2017* 12 * Forecast - Inflation Report, December 2015
13 Export growth and the recovery of investment will foster growth during the next two years GDP and Domestic Demand (Real % change) * 2017* Private Consumption 4,1 3,4 3,5 3,8 Private Fixed Investment -2,1-4,3 0,0 4,0 Public Consumption 10,1 9,5 5,3 4,0 Public Investment -2,0-7,5 10,9 5,0 Exports -0,8 3,3 5,4 7,9 Imports -1,5 2,4 1,3 4,0 GDP 2,4 3,3 4,0 4,8 * Forecast - Inflation Report, December
14 Growth in will be driven by mining and construction GDP by Economic Sectors (Real % change) * 2017* Agriculture and Livestock 1,9 2,8 1,6 3,7 Fishing -27,9 15,9-1,2 27,9 Mining and hydrocarbons -0,8 9,3 10,6 10,4 Manufacturing -3,7-1,7 1,1 4,2 Electricity and water 4,9 6,2 6,0 5,5 Construction 1,6-5,9 2,5 3,5 Commerce and services 4,9 3,9 3,7 3,7 GDP 2,4 3,3 4,0 4,8 Memo: Primary-GDP -2,1 6,6 6,5 9,1 Non-primary GDP 3,6 2,4 3,4 3,6 * Forecast - Inflation Report, December
15 According to Consensus Forecast, a recovery in economic activity is expected for most of the countries in the region for GDP Growth in LatinAmerica Annual % change 2017 Peru Bolivia Paraguay Mexico Colombia Chile Uruguay Argentina Ecuador Brazil Venezuela -6,3-3,1-0,1-0,1 2,7 2,5 2,0 1,9 3,5 4,0 3,9 Peru Bolivia Argentina Paraguay Mexico Colombia Chile Uruguay Ecuador Venezuela Brazil 0,6 0,9 1,5 2,5 2,7 3,1 3,1 3,7 3,6 4,1 4,8 Source: Latin American Consensus Forecast (February, 2016) and BCRP
16 Commodity Prices: The price of copper has fallen 52 percent since 2011 Cumulative Change of commodity prices respect to its highest level (Percentage change) Petroleum apr-11 Silver apr-11 Copper feb-11 Lead apr-11 Gold sep-11 Zinc feb-11-35% -30% -28% -52% -70% -65% Petroleum Silver Gold Copper Lead Zinc Highest Price Date Apr-11 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-11 Apr-11 Feb-11 Maximum Price 109,6 42,0 1772,7 447,6 124,3 111,8 Current Price* 33,0 14,8 1232,14 213,4 80,63 81,0 16 * As of February 29th
17 Peru has faced an external shock (a the decline in the terms of trade) since However, prices are still higher than in the previous decade. Terms of trade (% cumulative change) Terms of Trade (% cumulative change) Export prices 278,5-26,9 Import prices 97,5-10,1 35% Terms of Trade 91,6-18, % 25% 28,1% 21,0% % 15% 13,9% % 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 6,7% 6,1% 7,2% 4,3% 1,6% -0,7% -2,4% -2,1% -5,7% -5,4% -6,3% -3,9% -10,9% * ToT growth (left) ToT Index 2001=100 (right) * Forecast - Inflation Report, December 2015
18 Since 2015, the mining sector has started to show higher growth rates Mining production 2015 Gold (f. kg.) 141 Cooper (FMT) 1523 Zinc (FMT)
19 Copper production will increase by 95 percent in COPPER PRODUCTION (million of tons) Las Bambas (Apurímac) Ampliación de Cerro Verde (Arequipa) Toquepala Expansion (Tacna) Toromocho (Junín) Constancia (Cusco) 1,6 1,9 2,3 2,5 1,1 1,2 1,3 1, * 2017* 2018* 19 * Forecast - Inflation Report, December 2015
20 Peru s gross fixed investment is about 24,9 percent of GDP Total investment: 2015* (% of GDP) 17,4 17,8 18,0 19,4 19,7 20,0 22,1 22,3 24,0 24,9 Argentina Venezuela Brazil Uruguay Costa Rica Latin America Mexico Chile Colombia Peru * Forecast Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and BCRP. 20
21 Non-primary exports in 2015 are three times the 2000 level Exports of goods and services US$ (billion) 2015 % Total Copper 8,1 23,7 Gold 6,5 19,0 Agro business 4,3 12,6 Tourism 3,2 9,4 Zinc 1,5 4,4 Fishmeal 1,1 3,2 Textiles 1,3 3,8 Other 13,9 24,0 Total 34,2 100 Non-primary exports Exports Volume (Index 2000=100) Primary exports Non-primary exports 2016: % change 3,0 Agro business 6,1 Fishing 11,7 Primary exports 2016: % change 3,1 Copper 16, Zinc 6,2 Coffee 9, * * Forecast - Inflation Report, December 2015
22 Diversification by destination Total exports by destination (Share in total exports) Latin America Europe USA and Canada China Japan and South Korea Other Primary exports (share in primary exports) 40 Non- primary exports (share in Non-primary exports) Europe China USA and Canada Latin America Japan and South Korea 5 Other Latin America USA and Canada 4 Europe China Japan and South Korea 2 6 Other 22
23 The current account deficit is financed by long-term private capital inflows CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG-TERM EXTERNAL FINANCING OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR: / (% of GDP) 8,3 7,0 9,3 7,2 10,8 9,5 7,2 5,3 3,9 4,0-4,3-0,5-2,4-1,9-2,7-4,2-4,0-4,4-3,6-2, * 2017* * Forecast-Inflation Report, December 2015 Current Account Long-term financing of the private sector 23 1/ Includes net foreign investment, portfolio investment and private sector's long-term disbursement.
24 An expansionary fiscal stance is expected for the next two years Fiscal Surplus (% of GDP) 3,1 2,5 2,5 2,0 2,3 0,9-0,4-0,2-0,3-1,4-2,1-2,9-2, * 2017* 24 * Forecast - Inflation Report, December 2015
25 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Concluding Remarks 25
26 12-month inflation will converge to the target range in ,0 CPI inflation (yoy %) 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 6,7 4,7 4,4 2,7 3,2 2,9 3,1 2,5 2,1 0, * 2017* * Forecast - Inflation Report, December 2015
27 Jan/08 Apr/08 Jul/08 Oct/08 Jan/09 Apr/09 Jul/09 Oct/09 Jan/10 Apr/10 Jul/10 Oct/10 Jan/11 Apr/11 Jul/11 Oct/11 Jan/12 Apr/12 Jul/12 Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13 Jan/14 Apr/14 Jul/14 Oct/14 Jan/15 Apr/15 Jul/15 Oct/15 Jan/16 The BCRP raised the policy rate twice in 2015 and in January and February 2016 (from 4,0 to 4,25 percent) to anchor inflation expectations. 7,0 Monetary Policy Interest Rate and Inflation Expectations (%) 6,0 Nominal Rate Expectations 5,0 4,25 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 * Deflacted using Inflation Expectations 27
28 feb-02 jun-02 oct-02 feb-03 jun-03 oct-03 feb-04 jun-04 oct-04 feb-05 jun-05 oct-05 feb-06 jun-06 oct-06 feb-07 jun-07 oct-07 feb-08 jun-08 oct-08 feb-09 jun-09 oct-09 feb-10 jun-10 oct-10 feb-11 jun-11 oct-11 feb-12 jun-12 oct-12 feb-13 jun-13 oct-13 feb-14 jun-14 oct-14 feb-15 jun-15 oct-15 Macro-prudential policies have the purpose of ensuring the sustained credit growth % Reserve Requirements Rate (as % of Total Deposits) 80,0 70, ,0 50,0 49,0 40,0 Foreign currency 30,0 20,0 Domestic Currency 30,0 25,0 10,0 0,0 6,0 6,5 28
29 Peru s inflation is expected to remain within the target range for the next two years Inflation rate: 2016 Inflation rate: 2017 Ecuador Peru Mexico 3,0 3,1 3,4 Inflation Targeting: 1% 3% Peru Chile Ecuador 2,5 3,1 3,4 Chile 3,6 Mexico 3,4 Paraguay 4,2 Colombia 3,5 Bolivia 4,8 Paraguay 4,4 Colombia 4,9 Bolivia 4,6 Brazil 7,2 Brazil 5,7 Uruguay 8,2 Uruguay 7,7 Argentina 31,7 Argentina 20,0 Venezuela 239,0 Venezuela 155,1 29 Source: Latin American Consensus Forecast (February 2016) and BCRP
30 Central Bank has promoted a reduction in dollars loans through additional reserve requirements and providing local currency through FX repos Growth of banking credit (YoY % Chg.) 50,0 40,0 30,0 Soles US Dollar Total 27,8 20,0 10,0 9, ,0-20,0-30,0-20,7 30
31 BCRP FX repos have increased the average maturity of private banks liabilities Repos Average Banks Liabilities Duration (in months) Deposits with maturity larger than one year Deposits with maturity shorter than one year
32 jan-2012 feb-2012 mar-2012 apr-2012 may-2012 jun-2012 jul-2012 aug-2012 sep-2012 oct-2012 nov-2012 dec-2012 jan-2013 feb-2013 mar-2013 apr-2013 may-2013 jun-2013 jul-2013 aug-2013 sep-2013 oct-2013 nov-2013 dec-2013 jan-2014 feb-2014 mar-2014 apr-2014 may-2014 jun-2014 jul-2014 aug-2014 sep-2014 oct-2014 nov-2014 dec-2014 jan-2015 feb-2015 mar-2015 apr-2015 may-2015 jun-2015 jul-2015 aug-2015 sep-2015 oct-2015 nov-2015 dec-2015 jan-2016 feb-2016 Exchange Rate (S/ per US$) Net Purchases of US$ FX intervention aims at reducing volatility. The BCRP purchased US$ million in and sold US$ million in the period ,70 Exchange Rate and Forex Exchange Intervention 600 3,50 3,30 Net purchases (US$ million) * ,10 0 2, , , * As of March 2nd Net Purchases of US$ Exchange Rate
33 Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Actual RER The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate takes into account the Peruvian relative productivity with respect to its trade partners, the terms of trade, the net foreign assets, the openness degree and the fiscal position.
34 The BCRP carried out a precautionary accumulation of international reserves during the period of high commodity prices and capital inflows INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (USD billions) NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INDICATORS As a % of: 2015 GDP 32 Short-term external debt 1/ 575 Short-term external debt plus current account déficit 335 1/ Includes short-term debt balance plus redemption (1-year) of private and public sector 64,0 65,7 62,3 61, ,1 48, ,7 31,2 33, ,1 17, *Up to December 31, 2015
35 BCRP balance sheet December 2015 (US$ billion) 8,8 Credit 24,8 Monetary Base & Certificates 61,4 Net International Reserves 22,4 FX Reserve Requirement 23,0 Government Deposits ASSETS LIABILITIES 35
36 Peru: Yield curve for the Treasury Bonds in Local Currency 9,0 8,0 8,1 8,0 7,0 7,2 7,0 6,7 6,0 5,0 4,0 5,1 4,5 3,9 5,4 Sep. 15 Dec. 14 Feb. 16 3,0 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 30 years 40 years 36 Source: Bloomberg
37 Non-resident Treasury bond holdings remained stable since the end of ,8 36,8 35,6 Non-resident Treasury Bond holdings (%) 39,0 37,7 37,2 36,9 36,9 37,1 36,4 36,4 36,2 35,4 Current holdings: US$ 5,0 billion Ratio Non-resident Treasury Bond Holding regard Public Deposits: 16,7 % Dec.14 Jan.15 Feb.15 Mar.15 Apr.15 May.15 Jun.15 Jul.15 Aug.15 Sep.15 Oct.15 Nov.15 Dec.15 37
38 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3. Monetary Policy Framework 4. Concluding Remarks 38
39 Concluding Remarks Exogenous factors have been affecting the economic cycle; however, the Peruvian economy maintains strong fundamentals. Because of higher inflation expectations, the BCRP started raising its monetary policy rate to 4,25 percent in February. It is necessary to deepen structural measures to strengthen the recovery of potential growth. 39
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